October 2020 – Bull City Coordinators

2020 Game Previews – Duke v. Charlotte

You’ll notice that I haven’t spent much time doing game previews this season. This is primarily because all I would have to do is change out the name of the opposing team each week. My preview for each game would generally boil down to: a) Duke will turn the ball over; b) Duke’s turnovers will results in a loss. It’s pretty much been this way since the end of the Duke-UNC game last season.

I will do one for the Charlotte game, though. This is because the game will take place on Halloween (which, you know, never ends well for Duke) and because some people think the Blue Devils can win this game. The logic is Duke is in the ACC, Charlotte is new to this level of competition and Cutcliffe’s teams generally get their wins each season aginst non-conference teams.

Given my general nature, I’m not optimistic about the Blue Devils’ chances. To begin with, the 49ers were pretty good last year. They finished the season with a 7-6 record and a loss in the Bahamas Bowl. Duke didn’t make it to a bowl. You can argue that our opponent knows how to win games. But, but, but … Charlotte is currently 2-2 with losses to FAU and App State. The wins are against North Texas and UTEP, so you could say that Duke should be able to coast through this one.

But I’m not confident about this one. Why? To begin with, Charlotte has won two straight and has more wins than the Blue Devils. Moving that most obvious of stats aside, I’ll turn to the most important concern I have going into this game – Duke turns the ball over way, way too much. I’ve covered this extensively and won’t get into it now – if you’re reading this, you know how sloppy the Blue Devils are with the ball. So, moving to the next area of concern, keep in mind that Duke makes a lot of dumb penalties. How many times has Chris Rumph jumped offsides at critical moments? Too many to count.

And what about the injuries? We’re already thin in the secondary and now Mark Gilbert is gone from Wallace Wade forever. That won’t help. The Blue Devils are also down to a third-string center as Will Taylor is going to undergo surgery and Cutcliffe has said that Taylor is likely to miss the rest of the year. I like the OL more than most, and the bye week helps to give the unit more time to gel with a new center, but I’m not crazy about it. I’m rooting for Graham Barton, but this offense has struggled all year (mainly due to, you know, the turnovers).

Let’s be honest, Duke is 1-5 – why would we expect a sudden change in fortunes?

All of these problems and mistakes add up. A team that is injured can’t make mistakes by turning the ball over and making dumb penalties. The breakdown in discipline behind the turnovers and the penalties is something that can kill any team, especially one that doesn’t have any margin for error. For the Blue Devils to win, all three units (offense, defense and the kicking teams) will have to be flawless or at least not a complete disaster. Mistakes will have to be minimized and the team will have to stop being so sloppy. Given that Duke is 1-5 and the head coach is in season 13, I don’t see them improving this week.

Sure, the Blue Devils could still win this game playing the way the team has played all season. It worked against Syracuse. But even if Duke does notch its second win and overcomes terrible play, do you think that formula will work against UNC? Against Wake? Against FSU or GT? I don’t. It sure didn’t work against ND, BC, UVA, VT or NCSU, so I don’t expect it to work against the other ACC teams remaining on the schedule. You can win by playing bad, you just can’t do it often.

To conclude, what’s my prediction? Duke scrapes by with a win in a very, very close game.

Mark Gilbert Update

In addition to losing two players last week, Mark Gilbert is now opting out of the remainder of the season.

Mark Gilbert on Twitter: "How's Reconstruction Going?? Me: 😁👍🏾🌴… " — Mark Gilbert calmly looking like a man ready to terrorize opposing offenses.

He is going to prepare for the NFL draft and we all hope he makes it. I first saw this news from Stephen Wiseman, one of my favorite reporters. Gilbert opting out is unfortunate, but not unexpected. He’s been hurt for several years now, recently had surgery and can’t afford another injury. His time in Durham is limited and another injury would be devastating for his future. While we will miss Gilbert, we want nothing but the absolute best for him. The man is an absolute legend for overcoming his hip injury and getting back on a college football field.

Please join me in extending your best wishes to Mark Gilbert as he begins the next phase of his career. Go Duke!

Two Players Gone?

This morning, the Blue Devils announced that Chris Katrenick is opting out of the rest of the season for personal reasons.

Chris Katrenick - 2020 - Football - Duke University — Chris Katrenick, watching Chase Brice turn the ball over in pre-game warmups, wonders why he doesn’t get more of a chance to play.

The announcement is here.

In addition, linebacker Brandon Hill is entering the transfer portal. He opted out this season and, given the good play from Duke’s current LBs, this isn’t a surprise. The fact that he’s in the portal doesn’t mean he will leave, it just means that he might leave. We’ll keep an eye on it, but I would bet that he’s gone.

Turning back to Katrenick, my first thought is that I hope he’s OK. This is a scary time and you hope he doesn’t have any health issues. My second thought is that I’m frustrated that he didn’t play more. During the last two seasons he got almost zero playing time while he watched Harris and now Brice hand the ball to the other team on practically every drive. I know that Katrenick wasn’t a big time recruit, but there’s no reason for him not to have been given an opportunity to show what he can do. The fact that he can run makes him a better quarterback for Cutcliffe’s system than Brice. And, since he’s been around for a while, why not give him a quarter or a half to see if he can make something happen? He couldn’t do much worse than 1-5 and he has to know the system pretty well. (I’m not getting into the Gunnar issue in this post. That’s for another day.)

But bold changes aren’t Cutcliffe’s SOP. Hence why the Blue Devils are 1-5 at the moment. Loyalty is admirable, but the dogged stubbornness of Cutcliffe in sticking with Harris and Brice ought to be condemned.

State of the Program – Paging Fred Goldsmith

Today I read a particularly aggravating article from the Duke Chronicle. It put together the same, tired excuses we always hear from Cutcliffe apologists – “Did you know Duke used to be really bad?” To which I reply, “You mean like 1-5 bad?”

“Yeah, that’s what we used to be!”

My retort: “You mean our current record?” The response is typically silence followed by a blathering of excuses that emphasize past history over the current state of the program.

Fred Goldsmith (American football) - Alchetron, the free social encyclopedia — Fred Goldsmith smiles at the irony of Duke fans suddenly preaching patience and citing past glory.

Basically, the argument put forth by folks like The Chronicle is what we’re seeing now is more or less irrelevant. Given that most people are judged on current performance mixed in with how their work is trending over time (we all have down years), I’m unable to wrap my head around the idiocy of it.

But here’s what I want to point out about The Chronicle’s position. The author asserts that those of us who think that Cutcliffe needs to go are lacking perspective. Here’s the tweet:

College newspaper complains that older fans lack “perspective.” More irony that is not lost on those who lack said perspective.

I don’t dispute that Cutcliffe did a lot for Duke. I don’t dispute that he got the program out of the doldrums of the Franks and Roof era. I love the fact that he took us to several good bowl games and got us three bowl wins. That’s all amazing. But we can’t just look at 2012-2015. We have to look at the string of mediocrity that’s come since then. And we can’t ignore how bad the last two years have been. We need to have some actual perspective on this – and that includes the entirety of his time at Duke, not just a three year period that was really, really awesome.

In doing that, the best comparison I can come up with is Fred Goldsmith and his era at Duke. I remember those seasons well because those were when I started watching Duke pretty much every Saturday as a teen. Goldsmith came to town following four particularly bad seasons from Barry Wilson. Coach Wilson went 4-7, 4-6-1, 2-9 and then 3-8; that’s a stellar 13-30-1. Duke replaced Wilson with Goldsmith heading into the 1994 season. It started great – Duke went 8-4 and lost in the Hall of Fame bowl. After that, it was kind of ugly. The Blue Devils went 3-8, 0-11, 2-9 and then 4-7. Despite the good season in 1994, by 1998 Duke decided it had seen enough and brought in Carl Franks. Goldsmith wasn’t allowed to rest on his crowning achievement – more was expected.

Now, I will give you that one good season doesn’t match what Cutcliffe has done at Duke, but I will say that we’ve reached a decline similar to what we saw during Goldsmith’s tenure. Duke reached some real highs under Goldsmith, but never got back to the magic of that first season. In a similar fashion, from 2013-2015 we regularly contended in the Coastal. Since then? Not so much. We’ve declined, just like we did under Goldsmith. Since 2016, Duke has gone 4-8, 7-6, 8-5, 5-7 and is now 1-5. That’s (checks math) a sub-.500 record.

Just like we did with Goldsmith, it’s time to get a new head coach.

P.S. I won’t get into the internal inconsistency of saying that because Cutcliffe has more talent than Franks or Roof did, we should be more patient with him. Think about that – Franks and Roof had a talent excuse. What is Cutcliffe’s excuse?

2020 Game Recap – Duke Loses to NCSU

I almost considered not writing about this because it’s nothing but a repeat of pretty much every game this year. Stop me if you heard this one before:

Duke moved the ball;
Duke had a chance to win;
Chase Brice threw a bunch of interceptions;
The defense got worn down;
The play calls were questionable at times; and
Duke lost a conference game.

Yeah, it sounds pretty familiar. That’s what happened against NCSU. Duke came out and got a lead early off of a blocked punt. But then Coach Cutcliffe mismanaged an end of the half situation and the Blue Devils returned the favor by letting State score off a blocked punt. Despite that, Duke hung around and had a chance to take a two possession lead in the second half. The Blue Devils had the ball right around the one and couldn’t punch the ball in the end zone. Instead of going for a field goal and taking the easy points, they get stuffed on fourth down and then State does what all opposing teams do to Duke in that situation – they took the ball down the field and score. Then the wheels came off and Duke lost.

There is a word that sums it up – pathetic.

For reasons that are unclear to everyone watching the game, Gunnar Holmberg didn’t get a chance to play. Cut seems determined to stick with Brice which, given that the team is 1-5 and playing like a dumpster fire come to life, why shake things up? Coaches preach consistency, but this isn’t what they’re talking about.

This team is ugly. And it’s ugly because of two people – David Cutcliffe and Chase Brice. Cutcliffe is sticking with a quarterback whose best skill is giving the ball to the other team. And all Brice is doing is putting the Blue Devils in tough situations. Despite that, he keeps getting multiple opportunities. Why? I have no idea. Nor does anyone else who is objectively looking at the program. If you have a rational explanation, please give it to me. I’ve tweeted back and forth with former players and none of them can comprehend it. But if you have a reason for this, pass it along.

I’m not going to waste more time repeating the same things I’ve been saying all season. All I will say is that this team will not improve as long at Cutcliffe is the coach and Brice is the quarterback.

If I’m wrong, tell me why. I’d love to hear a different opinion.

2020 Game Recap – Duke Beats Cuse

I don’t believe it, but the Blue Devils got a win. After two weeks of looking somewhat better on offensive, Duke put enough of it together throughout four quarters to come away with a win. The Blue Devils beat Syracuse 38-24 to improve to a less than pedestrian 1-4 on the season. It’s not great, but we can celebrate a win, right? I mean, it’s a win. We should be excited about it. Right?

Syracuse vs Duke football: Blue Devils get first victory of season | Raleigh News & Observer — Deon Jackson and Mataeo Durant were absolutely on fire.

Maybe, but the win masks a lot of obvious flaws this team still has. But before we get to that, let’s talk about the good things. DJ, Durant and the offensive line were unbelievable. Duke ran for a total of 363 yards. DJ accounted for 169 and Durant notched another 163. The OL blocked well for them and protected the quarterback. Brice threw for 270 yards and Holmberg added another 12. On top of that, Charlie Ham continued to perform well as the field goal kicker going 3/3. The defense got six sacks. Tack on two touchdowns on some big plays by the WRs and you have to think it was a pretty fantastic day.

But like I said, don’t get too hyped about the win. Despite gaining 665 yards (are you kidding me?), the game was close until late, very late. Duke struggled to put Syracuse away and wasn’t able to until 5:26 in the 4th when Durant got his second TD and Brice got the two points on a run. Why was it so close despite the Blue Devils only giving up a total of 379 yards?

Because Duke continued to turn the ball over and gave up several big plays on defense. You can excuse the big plays because of the injuries in the secondary, but you can’t excuse FOUR, count them FOUR, turnovers. This is an older and experienced team. While DJ fumbling once on 30 touches is understandable, Brice’s fumbles (one was lost) and his pick, along with Holmberg’s fumble on a botched hand off, should worry all Blue Devil fans. Duke will not be able to win many games when they lose the turnover battle 4-0.

While I’m glad Duke got the win, I’m concerned about what will happen next week when the Blue Devils play NCSU. And what about when Duke plays NC? Do you think the team can win continuously despite giving up the ball four more times than the opponent? I don’t.

This is season 13 for Cutcliffe. His team continues to be undisciplined and sloppy with the ball. If this continues next week, expect Duke to return to its losing ways. Let’s hope for a change, but let’s also be optimistic.

State of the Program – Ted Roof isn’t an excuse

Of late, a lot of us have been talking about our frustration with Coach Cutcliffe. We all love and respect what he’s done, but the program is headed in the wrong direction. Those who want to keep Cut around and give him more time point to an excuse that I’m frankly (no pun intended) tired of hearing – “Duke was bad when Ted Roof was the coach.”

Photo Gallery: Photo Gallery: Virginia Tech 45, Duke 0 - Duke University Blue Devils | Official Athletics Site - GoDuke.com — Can we leave Coach Roof alone? It’s been 13 years. Move on.

Look, Duke wasn’t good during the Roof era. After some initial promise and a win over North Carolina, Duke regressed and looked the same as they did when Carl Franks was the coach. Roof ended his time in Durham with a 6-45 record and only 3 conference wins. That’s bad. We know that. No one disputes it.

The question I have is why this keeps coming up. It isn’t 2007. It isn’t 2008. It isn’t 2012. It’s 2020. And where are we? Well, we keep hearing about how Cut turned Duke around and made it a relevant program, how he gave it a winning identity. Basically, we keep hearing about how Cut created a new standard at Duke after taking the Blue Devils to 4 straight bowl games from 2012 through 2015, 2 additional bowls in 2017 through 2018 and delivering 3 bowl wins in the process (2015, 2017 and 2018). But since Cut shocked the world in 2012 and did it again in 2013 when he took Duke to the ACC Championship and the Peach Bowl (sorry, but that’s what I’m calling it), the program has regressed. Just about every. Single. Year.

Since that time, Duke went 9-4, 8-5, 4-8 (Cut gets pass for a million injuries that year), 7-6, 8-5, 5-7 and now 0-4. If Cut created an expectation that Duke would be winning more games than they lose and getting to bowl games, we haven’t really seen that. Duke got hot late in 2017 and just made it to a bowl. They did it again in 2018 despite getting walloped by Wake to end the regular season. And then last season fell apart on a jump pass against North Carolina (which followed a 48-14 beating by UVA). Last season’s gems included a 49-6 loss to Syracuse. Syracuse. Say it again and let that sink in.

Since the 4-8 season, Duke has regularly been blown out by teams. Miami beat the Blue Devils 31-6 in 2017 and Virginia Tech beat Duke 24-3 that same year. In 2018, Wake demolished Duke 59-7. As for 2019, there was also a third blowout loss that year when the Blue Devils lost to Notre Dame 38-7. Since beating Virginia Tech in 2019, Duke is now 2-10.

Putting all that together, it sure seems like the Blue Devils are falling behind the rest of the ACC. Duke hasn’t had a winning conference record since 2014. Duke hasn’t been at .500 in conference since 2015. If that isn’t a decline, I don’t know what is.

If Cutcliffe raised the expectations in Durham, then he needs to be judged by those raised standards. He can’t be held to the standard that Ted Roof and Carl Franks set because the program surpassed that some years back. The question going forward isn’t whether Cut is the right man to reinvigorate the program given how poorly Duke had done since Steve Spurrier left. The question is whether Cut is the man who can continue to meet the expectations he set. The answer seems to be that he isn’t.

2020 Season Thoughts – 4 Games In

Duke lost (again) to Virginia Tech on Saturday. It was close – 38-31 (thanks to a last minute field goal as time expired that left people scratching their head) – but it was still a loss. Another one. The fourth one. In four games. This season. Duke is 0-4.

Since the Blue Devils demolished Virginia Tech in 2019, Duke is now 2-10. That’s pretty terrible. Virginia Tech, however, looks fantastic. Despite having a grad assistant serve as DC and being down 21 players, the Hokies looked like a perennial power. Duke, on the other hand, looks like it has regressed to the Carl Franks and Ted Roof days. Coach Cutcliffe is in his 13th season – do any of us think he can turn things around?

Football - Duke University — A rare moment in which Duke doesn’t turn the ball over.

Why is Duke so bad? Well, we have to be honest. Duke has been on a decline since it went to Charlotte in 2013. Here’s a look at the results of 2013 to the present:

Duke is spiraling towards the bottom; in fact, the Blue Devils are already there. There’s no question about it. Regularly finishing 6th in the Coastal, barely getting to bowls and looking rudderless. The offense is abysmal. The defense gets worn down despite playing hard. There are too many penalties. It’s hard to watch.

Look, we love Cut here. He made Duke relevant again. But the Blue Devils aren’t relevant now. And that won’t change as long as Cutcliffe is the coach. Don’t believe me? Well, let’s look at the results again:

It’s time to make a change. Insanity is doing the same thing over again and expecting a different result. We need a new head coach. Now.