Duke heads to Blacksburg this Saturday to take on Virginia Tech. Both teams are in a spiral. The Blue Devils have lost five straight since notching a win against Kansas back in September. The Hokies haven’t done much better and stand at 4-5 overall, 2-3 in conference and 5th in Coastal. The only silver lining for Virginia Tech’s status in the ACC is that Duke stands at 0-5 in conference and is in last place in the Coastal. It’s the little things in life, right?
In trying to make sense of this game, I’m going to stick with trends, albeit the more recent trends as opposed to the long-standing trends like I’ve been doing all season. The reason I’m doing that is because the recent trends give the Blue Devils a chance for a win (health of Gunnar Holmberg and willingness to be creative on offense are the key contingencies here). So, with that in mind, let’s get to it.
In looking at the trends for Virginia Tech, what started off as a promising season has fallen off the rails. After a 3-1 start and a close loss to Notre Dame, Virginia Tech went from hoping for a good season to hoping for a new coach. Losing 4 out of 5 to fall to sub-.500 in conference is what the end of a head coach’s time at a school looks like and that’s what we’re seeing unfold in Blacksburg. While Fuente has done some good things at Tech, my VT buddies all said they got the sense that the Hokies quit and resigned themselves to the inevitable. Which is unfortunate, because we don’t root for people to lose their jobs here (my comments about Coach Cut’s future notwithstanding. I’m not rooting for him to get fired, I’m just saying it has to happen to move the program forward).
Why is Virginia Tech struggling important? Good question, because it isn’t like Duke is looking hot right now. Furthermore, this team hasn’t done anything since September that would cause us to expect a win. Well, here’s why Tech struggling is important. Most of the VT fanbase is looking ahead to the next season and is ready for a new coach. The rumor mill won’t stop turning about VT. Further, Burmeister may not start at QB for the Hokies and, if the players have thrown in the towel like a lot of the fans suspect, the Blue Devils can snatch a road win and avoid a winless conference season. (Can I just say the fact that we’re talking about this during a relatively healthy season is a sign of how low the program has sunk?) Also, some of my VT pals have pointed out that the quarterback situation behind Burmeister is a mess and that could help our guys from Durham. VT struggling is a good thing for the visiting team. So, with that in mind, let’s turn to the trends coming out of the Bull City.
Whereas Tech looked fairly lackluster in a 17-3 loss to BC, Duke came out somewhat sharp last week against Pitt before the wheels came off. If the Blue Devils hadn’t been sloppy with the ball early, this could have been a very different game (albeit one that ended in a loss because Duke’s defense is really, really struggling right now). Let’s assume that Gunnar comes back from his injury and plays on Saturday, this team has a shot right? Look, if the Blue Devils can show life against one of the best teams in the Coastal, surely they can play well against a team near the bottom of the Coastal. Heck, Duke did that against Georgia Tech and, if memory serves, blew a lead late in the 4th. (Again, this defense is really, really struggling.)
But it will take a significant amount of creativity and thinking outside the box to make that work. And that’s where the problem comes in. Creativity isn’t this team’s strongest asset. The offense is fairly vanilla and easy to figure out. Hence the poor performances against UNC, Virginia and Wake. Here are a couple of ideas to try and help the team get a win on Saturday:
- Slow down. We need to keep our defense off the field if we want to win. I’m not going to recap how poorly the Blue Devils have been as a unit defensively, but I will say that we need to keep the defense on the sidelines to have a chance. How do we do that? Run. A. Huddle. Get rid of the tempo. Look, the other team is just going to have a ton of “injuries” crop up to slow us down and disrupt the tempo, so take that away and run the offense out of a huddle. Give the defense time to adjust.
- Different personnel. Let’s get guys like Ja’Mion Franklin on the field more. Get R. J. Oben on the field more. Our DL has struggled to consistently get pressure and, at 3-6, it’s time to shake things up and see if that will get some more production. The secondary needs help and this could be a way to do that. I like Ben Frye, but he’s a grad student and it’s probably time to see what some of the younger guys can do. How bout we bring him off the bench for leadership and energy?
- But it isn’t just the defense that could use a change; we need to help the offense by putting Luca Diamont on the field to play wide receiver. The kid looks fast when he’s in (and I know it’s against a second unit, but still) and he is known as a running quarterback. Why not give him a shot at wide receiver? I like our guys, but getting separation isn’t their strongest skill (hence all the quick passes). Why not give a fast guy a chance to see what can happen? He’s buried on the depth chart as it is, so move him to a different position. Run him on some underneath routes, go over the middle with him, try some reverses and fake reverses. Create confusion. Why the heck not at this point? We had a pretty decent guy who wore number 2 play WR in the past, so why not try it again? And thanks to Matt Lentz for this idea.
So, can Duke get a win on Saturday? It’s possible. I’ll even be in Blacksburg cheering the Blue Devils on in Section 19. I’m hoping for Duke to get a win and, because I want to see them win, I’m going to call for the upset. I’m taking the Blue Devils to win 24-20.
Let me know what you think about what I think in the comments or on Twitter.
Go Duke!