2022 Game Previews – Duke hosts the Cavaliers

After a heartbreaking loss against Kansas to close out non-conference play, Duke takes on UVA at home this Saturday. The game starts at 7:30 p.m., weather permitting, and the first conference game of the Elko Era will be a night game at Wallace Wade. Is there a better way to kick things off? Other than with a win, I mean. But, back to the point of this post. What can we expect from the Blue Devils in this game?

Just as the Jayhawks were a tough test and a formidable opponent, the Cavaliers will not be an easy out for Duke. While UVA may be a mediocre 2-2 on the season, they still have Brennan Armstrong at quarterback who, no matter what he’s done so far this season, remains capable of lighting up the scoreboard at any moment. New coach Tony Elliott hasn’t been all the Cavaliers have hoped for offensively, but he has sure turned around the defense. As Jim Sumner pointed out in his latest post, it appears that the UVA defense is being coached by a modern-day equivalent of Julius Caesar, Agrippa, Hannibal and Alexander. This is almost certainly the best defense the Blue Devils have faced all season. As of the time that I last checked today, UVA is ranked 51st in total defense and gives up an average of 350 yards per game. That’s well ahead of 94th ranked Kansas. Beating this team would be a real statement win for Duke.

To win this game, the Blue Devils will need to be more balanced than they were last week against the Jayhawks. We will need to see more running the ball and better communication and execution defensively. We can’t see another game with a host of missed tackles and poor execution on critical downs which allow drives to continue. That, of course, does nothing more than wear the defense down. The critical down deficiencies have been present against both Northwestern and Kansas this season to a point that it is almost a worrisome trend. Coach Elko and his staff will have to find a way to stop UVA on 3rd and 4th down in order to get a win.

Can Duke win? Recent history would say no. The Blue Devils have not beaten the Cavaliers since 2014. This is a long losing streak that you can bet Duke is ready to break. And this team can do it. The defense plays well enough to keep the team in the game and the offense is not getting overwhelmed by the moment. The quarterback, receivers and offensive line are working together and, with the exception of last week, the running game has been very good. If the defense can be opportunistic, smart and execute on critical downs, the Bull City Boys can come away with a win Saturday night. And hopefully it will not be a rainy Saturday night because I do not want to spend about 6 hours in the car roundtrip to get rained on.

Now, as I have mentioned on Twitter a few times, I am trying to change my brand a little bit. During the Cutcliffe Era, I developed a reputation as a bitter truth teller who would point out how bad the program was as opposed to being a stan account. Now, though, it seems that the Elko Era is full of hope, promise and possibility. Accordingly, I don’t think that continuing to be a sarcastic, bitter old man is necessarily the brand for me at this time. So, I’m going to try something a little different with game previews going forward. I hope you all enjoy this. And if it doesn’t work, I’ll just revert back to being a grumpy, bitter old man.

With a win Saturday, Duke can accomplish the following feats:

Number 1 – Beat UVA for the first time since 2014. That is a long losing streak that I think we all want to see come to end. Hopefully, we will see it end and we’ll get a little payback for all those bad losses we had in 2019 (48-14) and 2021 (48-0).

Number 2 – Get a conference win for the first time in the last 13 games. The last time the Blue Devils got an ACC win was all the way back in 2020 against Syracuse in what was, at best, an ugly win.

Number 3 – Coach Elko can guarantee no worse than four wins and one conference win on the season. This would have him on par with what Coaches Cutcliffe and Wilson did during their first seasons, ahead of Coach Franks during his first season, better than Coach Roof during his first full season as head coach and close to the performance of Coach Spurrier during his first season when he went 5-6.

Number 4 – Remain hot. We’re all used to the Blue Devils starting hot and cooling off once ACC play hits. Do I need to recount all the times this happened? Probably not, but I will anyway – 2015 (started 6-1 and finished 8-5), 2017 (started 4-0 and finished 7-6), 2018 (started 5-1 and finished 8-5) and 2019 (started 4-2 and finished 5-7).

So, with all of this in mind, who will win on Saturday and by what margin? For that, let’s start with our guest picker Matt Barbee. He is taking Duke over UVA by a score of 34-21. And, before you ask, I intend to make guest picks a recurring segment going forward. I hope you like hearing from other people and, since I’m awful at picking scores, maybe you can hear from someone who can get it right once in a while.

Do I also have the Blue Devils winning? Yes I do, Other Barry, yes I do. Based on the Cavaliers’ offensive performance over the season, I don’t see UVA putting up a lot of points. But given the strength of the Cavaliers’ defense, I see the game being a close one. All told, I am taking Duke over UVA by a score of 31-24. This will be a close one, but one that I think the Blue Devils will win.

And that’s it for the game recap. Let me know what you think about what I think in the comments or on Twitter.

Go Duke!

2022 Game Recaps – Undefeated No More

All good things, as they say, must end. Just as the reign of The Five Good Emperors ended when Marcus Aurelius chose Commodus as his successor, the … Sorry, I’ve been listening to The History of Rome again. Let’s try the game recap one more time.

Riley Leonard making one of his many big plays on Saturday.

After three games against a questionable level of competition, Duke faced its first real challenge of the season on the road against Kansas. The Jayhawks came in firing on all cylinders after wins against West Virginia and Houston and didn’t miss a beat on Saturday. Kansas shredded the Blue Devil defense on its way to putting up over 500 total yards. The Jayhawks made one big play after another, which included runs of 30, 24 and 17 yards by three different backs (one of whom was the QB). In addition, one Kansas receiver broke off a 73 yard reception and three others had longs of of more than 20. Jalon Daniels came into the game getting hyped for the Heisman. While it may be too early for that discussion, he sure looked like the real deal on Saturday. Daniels made every throw and led his team in rushing. He played great. No question about it. But for getting stopped on 4th and Goal on the opening drive and a fumble in the first quarter, Daniels could have easily put two more touchdowns on the board.

So, with that context, I’m probably going to discuss how Duke got blown out by a score of like 56-20, right? Nope, I’m not going to do that. Because that isn’t what happened. The final score was 35-27. And while a loss is a loss, you can’t say this is a bad one. Despite giving up a lot of yards and a lot of big plays, the Blue Devils managed to hold the Jayhawks to their lowest point total of the season and had a chance to tie the game in the fourth quarter and force overtime. While Duke couldn’t pull off the victory, the Blue Devils hung around despite Kansas running all over the field and generally being in control from start to finish.

In a losing, but valiant, effort, Riley Leonard had a great game, 24/35 for 324 yards and a touchdown plus 54 rushing yards, Jalon Calhoun had 93 yards, Jordan Moore had 7 catches and Eli Pancol had 3 catches for 62 yards with a long of 49. Jontavis Robertson also had a 38 yard catch. This team showed an ability to make explosive plays and stay in the game despite falling behind by 15 in the third. While this game ended in a loss, we can all be optimistic about the remainder of the season. Kansas was by far the best team the the Bull City Boys have played all season and the Jayhawks didn’t run their opponent off the field. Our guys absorbed a lot of punches but managed to keep the game close and were in it right until the end. That’s a good thing – let’s not overlook that in the loss.

I’m going to forego the Five Things in this recap – this specific game didn’t really lend itself to that type of discussion – and will instead note that I liked a lot of what I saw on Saturday even though Duke came out of it at 3-1 and not 4-0. The Blue Devils played hard, didn’t get overwhelmed by the moment and fought all the way until the end. These guys played with a lot of heart and a lot of pride. Those are two things that a team needs in order to win.

Now, while the recap has been overwhelmingly positive, there were a few things that Duke will need to work on in order to do well in conference play. There were a lot of missed tackles yesterday, a lot. Coach Elko has to get that fixed and soon. Consistent with the poor tackling, the Blue Devils were atrocious on third and fourth down, giving up 6/10 and 1/2 respectively (although you can’t read too much into the fourth down numbers alone as there were only two attempts. I’m talking about the two situations as a whole here, not individually). In order to win enough conference games to get to a bowl, the defense will have to tighten up and improve in critical situations. Critical downs (what I call third and fourth) have been a problem all season and the coaching staff has to correct it and fast. In addition, there were a few times where receivers ran routes a yard or two short. That sort of thing can kill a team in close games and will need some attention at practice this week.

But, even with those problems, our team was very close to winning. Despite falling behind 7-0 and generally getting obliterated by the opposing offense, Duke only trailed by eight at the half and saw Charlie Ham, who had struggled of late, connect on two field goals. And after trailing by 15 in the third, the Blue Devils fought back and outscored their opponent 14-7 down the stretch. That takes some character, determination, grit and, if you will, GRIND. So, the loss notwithstanding, it isn’t all doom and gloom.

Now, before we wrap up the game recap, I want to give myself a high five for being pretty accurate in my preview for this game. I predicted a lot of running the ball (correct), a lot of points (more or less correct, but I was off on over the under prediction), explosive plays (check and check), an exciting game (was it ever) and Kansas to win in a game that could have gone either way (check plus). Bonus points for me stating that it will come down to who can run the ball and stop the run the best. Unfortunately for us, the Jayhawks did that on Saturday – our committee put up 139 compared to the other team’s 204). While I’m terrible at score predictions, I think I may finally understand a little bit about this football thing.

Live look at me as I try and understand football.

So, that’s it for the game recap. Let me know what you think about what I think in the comments or on Twitter.

Go Duke!

2022 Game Previews – A Battle of the Undefeated

It’s a situation that not many saw coming at the start of the season, but here we are – an undefeated Duke team will take on an undefeated Kansas team in Lawrence on Saturday at 12 EST. This should be a real, real fun game. Beyond the fact that both teams are undefeated, this will be the game that tells us where the Blue Devils are as they head into conference play. And if Duke can get a win on the road against what looks like a pretty good Jayhawks team, we may well be talking about the Blue Devils going bowling (more on that below).

Now, before we get into the game preview, I want to say something about my approach to this season which I would describe as a copious amount of cautious, cautious optimism. I’ve seen too many Duke teams start hot and then fall apart once conference play hits. Accordingly, I resolved this season to be patient, not get sucked in and wait before making snap judgments. I’m not the one to take a stan approach to this team. Look, you all know I’m a fan – I do this in my spare time and make no money off of it, so you know I support this team – but I am a realistic fan. Dour realism is my brand and I’m sticking to it.

But I do want to say this – I believe in this team. I believe that this team can win enough games to get to a bowl. So, what should we expect on Saturday? Here are my thoughts:

No. 1 – Lots of running the ball. Lots of it. Kansas, as I noted in my NCA&T recap, can run the ball. The Jayhawks ran for 200 yards against West Virginia and followed it up with 280 against Houston. Read that again – 280 against Houston. That’s a lot. Well, Duke can run the ball, too. Over their first three games, the Blue Devils put up 172, 221 and 222 yards, respectively. And I expect that trend to continue on Saturday. The critical issue in the game will be which team can run the ball the best on offense and which team can do the best to stop the run defensively.

No. 2 – A lot of points. A Big 12 team is probably all we need to say about Kansas and its ability to score. But what about Duke? This team has been playing well offensively over the first three weeks. 30 points in Week 1, 31 in Week Two and 49 last week. And last year’s 52-33 thrill fest? Well, that’s a recipe for an over-under of 64.5 (I’d take the over on that, but I am trash at betting).

No. 3 – Explosive plays. Steve Wiseman pointed out that both teams have guys who can make plays. When you look at the ability of both running games, which includes the quarterbacks, you have to expect to see a number of plays for twenty or more yards. Let’s just hope we see the Blue Devils make a few more than the Jayhawks on Saturday. And, given the number of points the opposing team has given up in its last two games, and the amount of passing yards given up, I expect to see some big runs, long passing routes and an exciting clash of two talented offenses.

No. 4 – Two teams with a lot to prove. For Duke, we know that this team is trying to get out of the shadow of 2.5 lousy seasons. But we’ll come back to that later. For Kansas, this game likely means a lot more than shrugging off a few awful seasons given the history of the program. The Jayhawks have been a perennial doormat for a long, long time. Throughout my life, Kansas has only been to seven bowl games (I’m 41 folks!). Most of those took place during Mark Mangino’s tenure as head coach. Since that tenure ended? Ten last place finishes in conference. Let me repeated that – ten. That’s. A. Lot. At 3-0 with a chance to beat a p5 school, you can bet this team is going to come out ready to prove something.

But, to conclude my point about two teams having a lot to prove, I want to note that the Blue Devils have a lot to gain from this win. A. Lot. Getting to 4-0 would leave this team just two wins away from a bowl. And when you look at Duke’s conference schedule, you have to think that a bowl game is certainly possible (which is hard to believe given how bad of a season most folks expected for the team). The Blue Devils have very winnable games against Georgia Tech and Boston College. Duke also has a stretch of games that could go either way against UVA, UNC and Virginia Tech (I consider these either way games as opposed to very winnable based on the recent history between the Blue Devils and these teams). Looking at those five games I listed, and I know the team can’t look ahead, but we can and I will, a bowl game isn’t out of the question. Getting a road win against a Big 12 game will go a long, long way to locking up bowl eligibility. Which takes us to …

No. 5 – An exciting game. I’m not sure how this game will play out, but I get the sense it will be an offensive slugfest between the two teams. Duke gave up points against Northwestern and almost let the game slip away at the end. The Jayhawks have also given up a lot of points the last two weeks. While there is a lot we don’t know about this Blue Devils defense given the level of competition in weeks one and three, we do know that the Kansas defense can give up points. So, regardless of the outcome, I think it’s going to be exciting to watch. And win or lose, this should be a fun game. I say that because this Duke team seems to be the type to go out, compete and enjoy the moment. These guys don’t appear to be the type to get overwhelmed by the moment.

Now, while I believe in this team, I’m not taking the Blue Devils to win. I’m going to go with the Jayhawks. Here are my reasons why –

No. 1 – Kansas has played, and beaten, better competition. No knock on who Duke has played, but beating West Virginia and Houston says a little bit more than beating a bad Temple team, NCA&T and what is looking like a not good Northwestern team that just lost to a previously winless Southern Illinois team.

No. 2 – Kicking team woes. Given the high-octane nature of these two offenses, this is the kind of game that could come down to field goals. Based on what we’ve seen so far from the Blue Devils in the kicking game, I get a sense that a few missed field goals will likely tilt the game towards the Jayhawks. This game feels like one that will be close for a long time and may favor Kansas late. But the opposing kicker hasn’t been lights out in his career, either, so the boys from the Bull City may be on equal footing with the guys from Lawrence in this respect.

No. 3 – I have to pick someone. Look, in all honesty, I view this game as a toss-up. It could easily go either way. What I like about this Duke team is that they play confident, fast and with a belief in the coaching staff and one another. That’s a recipe for victory in games that, all things being equal, a team probably shouldn’t win. Based on what we’ve seen so far, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Blue Devils win this game. Coach Elko talked about being smart with a tempo offense to help the defense and I would expect that to continue on Saturday in order to keep the defense fresh and keep the opposing offense off the field. If Duke can do that on Saturday, it shouldn’t shock anyone to see them come away with a win and get to 4-0. This is a hard one for me to pick, so while I’m taking the Jayhawks, I view this game as a pure toss-up.

Now, with that all out of the way, I’m going with Kansas to eek out a win by a score of 45-34 thanks to some late scores. As I mentioned above, I get the sense that we’ll miss a few field goals and it will come back to haunt us. But, regardless of the outcome, if the Blue Devils lose this game and end non-conference play at 3-1, we should all be optimistic about a bowl game. This team has games against Georgia Tech, UVA, BC, UNC and VT coming up which means there’s a good chance to get to six wins and a bowl. And I think that this team can do that.

So, that’s it for the game preview. Let me know what you think about what I think in the comments or on Twitter.

Go Duke!

2022 Game Recaps – Duke is 3-0

The Blue Devils came out firing on all cylinders Saturday night en route to a 49-20 win against the NCA&T Aggies. While the margin of victory makes the game look closer than it was, much of the Aggies’ success came when Duke’s defensive starters were out, this is still an impressive win.

Jordan Waters breaks off a long run.

Riley Leonard had a great game under center. He had a 38 yard pitch-and-catch to Nicky Dalmolin, ran for two touchdowns (including one for 56 yards) and, but for confusion on a scissors route, had close to a perfect game. The defensive line looked sharp, too. Aeneas Peebles caused a fumble which DeWayne Carter picked up and took to the house. Ja’Mion Franklin also blew up a play near the goal line. It was a nice game that the Blue Devils had under control from start to finish. Our boys from Durham took the lead on the first drive and never looked back. So, with that, let’s get to the Five Things.

Five Things I Liked:

No. 1 – Jordan Moore. We didn’t see that much of Moore last week against Northwestern. It wasn’t until the second half that we saw him make some plays and get Duke back in the game. Last night, however, Moore had 5 catches for 37 yards including a touchdown in the first quarter. Moore is a big moment type of player who has to be involved early and often. It’s good to see Coach Johns doing that. He really helps get the offense rolling.

No. 2 – Utilization of depth on defense. I noticed from the TV that we were subbing in a lot of bodies early. It was good to see a lot of guys get opportunities to make plays and keep our starters fresh heading into a big, big game against Kansas next week. I’ve talked about depth for a good while now and it’s good to see Coach Elko and the rest of the staff give guys opportunities to make plays.

No. 3 – Riley Leonard. Man, but the kid is looking good. He was 11/12 for 155 yards, tossed two touchdowns and ran for two more. The staff is letting him throw deep, he’s progressing through his reads and he’s running when he has to, not just because he can (although he sure can). Riley is making good decisions with the ball and he’s really coming into his own. I’m excited to see how he holds up in ACC play and, next week, against the Jayhawks. That game is going to be a real test.

No. 4 – Running the ball. Is it just me, or can the Blue Devils run the darned football? Duke ran it 35 times for a total of 222 yards and 4 touchdowns. Jaquez Moore ran for 55 yards with a long of 42, Jaylen Coleman went 10 for 51 and Jordan Waters did, too. Waters also broke off a nice 29 yard run. Factor in the long run from Leonard and it sure seems like the OL is opening up holes for the running back committee. I’ve talked repeatedly about how important running the ball is and I’ll continue to do it. A good running game allows a team to control the clock, rest the defense and get the OL comfortable and generally be in charge of the game. If the Blue Devils can keep running the ball like they did Saturday night, this could be a fun season.

No. 5 – The Nicky Dalmolin touchdown. Just like I love a good running game, I love an offense that gets the ball to the tight end. I won’t go into it again, I’ll just restate how using the tight end puts pressure on the defense. Plus, tight ends block all game and deserve some throws their way. It’s nice to see guys like Dalmolin get a chance to score a touchdown.

Five Things I Didn’t Like:

No. 1 – Not seeing the Dalmolin touchdown in real time. I had a massive TV problem crop up and had to set up my old Sling TV account again. Missed the TD and came in with the game at 7-0. Hated it.

No. 2 – Holes in the defense. Looking at the score and outcome of the game, it’s hard to get too upset about the defensive performance. That said, the Aggies opened up some holes and really ran the ball well after the first quarter. To that point, the Aggies averaged 5.3 yards per carry and racked up 217 yards on the ground. A lot of that could be attributed to garbage time, but the Aggies did have two long drives in the first half. Given that Kansas can, you know, run the ball, this could be an area of concern going forward. And speaking of concerning areas defensively …

No. 3 – Third down defense. Temple was 5/14 on third. Northwestern was 5/17 on third, but 4/6 on fourth. The Aggies were 8/14 on third. That’s a problem. When you take into account all of the drops the Aggies’ receivers had last night, you have to be a little concerned about how this defense will match up against teams with bigger wide receivers and effective ground games. While it hasn’t turned into a problem yet, it sure could against a team like, you know, the Jayhawks. This is an area which will require improvement if Duke wants to make a run. The defense can’t give up conversions on third down or on fourth and still win games.

No. 4 – Empty seats. We heard a lot about the sellout, but a lot of those fans must have gotten the date of the game wrong. It’s unfortunate that a team that is performing so well still can’t fill the stands. That’s not on the team, though. It’s a reflection of the fact that the administration ignored the football program for decades until David Cutcliffe came to town.

No. 5 – Hey, would you look at that, I don’t have a fifth thing. How about that?

On the whole, I’m pretty happy with this Blue Devil team. At 3-0, this group is three wins away from a bowl game. With Georgia Tech looking awful, Virginia being inconsistent and that team in the pale blue not knowing how to play defense, you have to think that Duke has a chance to go bowling. But for that to happen, the Blue Devils are going to have to improve. Penalties weren’t a huge issue last night, so that’s a sign that the team is learning and getting better. Let’s hope we’ll see that in the context of critical downs and stopping the run.

And that’s it for the game recap. Let me know what you think about what I think in the comments or on Twitter.

Go Duke!

2022 Game Previews A&T

Duke is off to a hot 2-0 start with wins against Temple and Northwestern. While the Blue Devils have been plagued by inconsistencies so far, Saturday night provides a chance for Duke to tighten up a few things before Kansas and conference play. After reading a lot from other folks who cover the Blue Devils, namely Jim Sumner and Steve Wiseman, I get the sense that Duke is going to want to make a statement with this win. Sure, beating the Aggies may be looked down upon as nothing more than a win against an FCS team, but keep in mind what happened last season – A&T dominated the Blue Devils during the first half. You can bet Duke remembers that ugly outing and you can bet this team wants to show that was a fluke.

So, what should we expect? Well, the Aggies are historically well-coached – this team went 10-2 and 9-3 in 2018 and 2019. However, they are in the midst of a rough stretch since moving to the Big South. After taking a year off due to COVID, the Aggies went 5-6 in 2021 and are off to a sluggish 0-2 start. One of those losses was to NCCU and the other was to North Dakota State (which you can’t really call a bad loss because NDSU is real, real good). And those losses weren’t close, either. The Aggies lost 28-13 and 43-3. Given that, it’s fair to say that the Aggies aren’t going to match up well on Saturday.

So, the issue isn’t really going to be what the Aggies can do – the issue is what the Blue Devils will do. Based on recent performances and last season’s game, I expect that Duke will come out firing on all cylinders and will put up a lot of points. I also expect this defense to come out extra aggressive after getting torched down the stretch by Northwestern. These guys will be motivated to show that half was an aberration. Look for the Blue Devils to come out angry and determined to prove something. For P5 teams to be good, and to be taken seriously, they have to put up a large margin of victory against FCS competition. This team will want to do just that.

So, to conclude, what do I expect from Duke on Saturday night? I expect them to try and make a statement win over the Aggies. And, given the nature of the Aggies’ 0-2 start, I expect our guys to win by a comfortable margin. How comfortable? Well, I’m taking the Blue Devils 52-10. If last year’s team can win 45-17, I think this team can do more. So, don’t let me down guys. Go out there, put up 52 and allow me to finally, finally get a score prediction right.

Let me know what you think about what I think in the comments or on Twitter.

Go Duke!

2022 Game Recaps – Duke Survives

In what looks to be a trend for this Duke team, the Blue Devils raced out to a 210-0 lead against Northwestern only to cool down and see the Wildcats make a game of it. Fortunately, Duke managed to hold on, thanks to the intervention of the football gods, and escape with a win. As I said on Twitter, I’d rather be lucky than good. The Blue Devils are now 2-0 on the season after getting the first road win of the Coach Elko era. Excuse me while I celebrate.

Jalon Calhoun is about to make one of his many nice catches.

This wasn’t, by any stretch of the imagination, a perfect game. After taking a 21 point lead, Duke got outscored 23-10. The secondary, which I’ve been a little concerned about all season because of depth issues, gave up 435 passing yards and our defense was real close to giving up a 75 yard touchdown drive at the end. After kicking a field goal to go up 8, the Blue Devils went into a prevent that Northwestern promptly picked apart as it methodically, and quickly, marched down the field. Fortunately for Duke, Wildcats RB Evan Hull fumbled around the one, the Blue Devils recovered in the endzone and a victory formation sealed the game. Despite the inconsistencies, Duke continued to show promise. I’m foregoing a more traditional game recap to get to Five Things. Let’s start with the Five Things I Liked:

No. 1 – The running game. Earlier this season, I talked about how important it would be for the Blue Devils to run the ball to help the quarterback, control the clock and give the defense time to rest. Well, 35 carries for 221 yards did just that. Coleman and Waters also broke off long runs, including a 42 yarder by Waters for one of his two touchdowns. That’s the exact thing this Duke team will need if it wants to compete all season.

No. 2 – Luck. We’ve talked a lot on the podcast about how the football can bounce in a weird, weird way. For the last few seasons, it hasn’t been bouncing favorably for the Blue Devils. Well, the football gods smiled on the road team Saturday. Northwestern missed a field goal, made an ill-advised decision to go for two in the third and then their all-world RB fumbled right at the end of the game. Oh, and remember that play where quarterback and running back weren’t on the same play and Franklin got a great sack? And that doesn’t even take into account the Three Stooges play that Calhoun made when a ball bounced off a receiver’s hands and landed in Calhoun’s arms. He broke that play for a lot of yards after the catch. To win games, a team needs favorable bounces. And maybe, just maybe, fortune is going to favor Duke for a bit.

No. 3 – Big plays. Man, this is not last season’s offense. The Blue Devils are making big plays that flip the field and put pressure on the opposing defense. Calhoun had a 51 yard catch, Waters, as previously mentioned, broke off a 42 yard touchdown run and, my favorite on the day, Eli Pancol snagged an 81 yard catch that almost went to the house. While Eli didn’t score, he set a record for the longest non-touchdown play in Duke history (if the game announcers were correct). Eli making big plays is exactly what this team needs. When the new staff took over, I thought about how guys who had been around for a while were going to need to step up and make the most of this opportunity. Eli is doing just that. He’s faster, more confident and looks real hungry each time he steps on the field. While I started to think he was becoming a possession receiver, which is something a team needs, his 81 yard run shows he’s got the wheels to be a downfield threat. I love seeing it. If Eli keeps playing like this, the offense could be a lot of fun to watch over the remaining 10 games.

And it wasn’t just the offense. Josh Pickett and the secondary had all the pass break ups at all the right times, Franklin had that nice sack and we got an interception on a two-point conversion attempt. That was huge. Just huge. Oh, and Anthony Nelson recovered a fumble. This defense isn’t perfect, but it’s a lot better than it was last year. I can’t wait to see what the staff can do with this unit in the coming years.

No. 4 – Creativity on offense. With Hannibal, in the form of Evan Hull and Ryan Hillinski, at the gates, and the offense on the ropes, Coach Johns dialed up some plays for Jordan Moore. While 2 catches for 14 yards may not look like much, one of those was a touchdown that helped get the Blue Devils going again. Coach Johns continues to show that he’s a smart play caller and knows the importance of getting the ball to his playmakers. I’m excited to see how Coach Johns utilizes his weapons as the season progresses.

No. 5 – Third down stops on defense. We all remember how bad the defense had been the last few years on third down, particularly third and long. We haven’t seen that so far this season. The Wildcats were an abysmal 5-17 on third. That’s a great sign. If Duke can keep up that level of defensive efficiency, this could be a good season.

But, as good as the Blue Devils were on third, we’ll turn to the Five Things I Didn’t Like because …

No. 1 – The Blue Devils defense was terrible on fourth down. Giving up 4/6 conversion attempts won’t get it done. This team will have to do something different if it wants to win games and have a good season.

No. 2 – Inconsistencies continue. Just like last week was a tale of two halves, yesterday was a tale of the first quarter and everything else. In the first quarter and change, Duke put up 21 points and looked like a world-beater. But then things slowed down and the Blue Devils didn’t do much of anything offensively until the 4th quarter. After getting outscored 16-0, and seeing Northwestern get within five points, Duke got a touchdown and a field goal to up 8. But then the defense gave up a long drive to a team with no timeouts. But for the Hull fumble, we may not be talking about the Blue Devils being 2-0 today. Duke will need to be more consistent as the season progresses if it wants to go bowling. Playing well for 15 or 30 minutes isn’t enough. The team has to start putting together complete games.

No. 3 – Penalties. 7 for 85 yards is a problem. I don’t think we need to elaborate on why. This can’t continue.

No. 4 – The kicking teams. Charlie Ham missed another makeable field goal. He finished the day 1/2. Following on the misses from last week, it’s fair to wonder whether we are going to have to play around our kicker. I hope not, but it may be the case.

Likewise, our punt return unit didn’t do much to write home about. Calhoun ran backwards on a return and lost 11 yards. Not great, Bob, doesn’t begin to describe the frustration me and Tim felt seeing that play. While one play doesn’t determine the outcome of a season, that kind of bad decision can kill a team in a close game. Let’s hope this gets fixed. And speaking of bad decisions …

No. 5 – Sloppiness. In addition to the punt return by Calhoun and the penalties, we saw some missed tackles. We also saw a drive near the end of the game where the offense didn’t let the clock run down enough before snapping the ball which gave the Wildcats 25 extra seconds to work with. How big was that at the end of the game? Throw in the decision to take the field goal to go up eight (which I was fine with at first until it blew up) instead of going for it on 4th and 1 at the Northwestern 1, and we’re starting to see some slight clock management issues. These have to be tightened up. But, hey, this is game two of a new era. We can be patient and wait for things to improve.

Let me close with three thoughts. First, it’s great to be 2-0. I mean it; being undefeated, even though it’s only through two games, is a lot of fun. Second, did you all notice the Hellraisers on the staff fleeces? I did. If those fleeces aren’t for sale in the team store when I’m down there for the UVA game, there will be consequences. You hear me, Duke store?!?!?!

I’ve got a fever! And the only prescription is MORE HELLRAISERS!

Third and final, the Drinking Team Coordinators will take the blame for the inconsistency on offense. Co-Drinking Team Coordinator Tim and I have a routine for noon games that we’ve followed zealously for years. Tim finishes up his coffee and I go straight to a beer at noon. When Tim’s done with the coffee, he transitions to the beer. This time, though, I delayed the beer until the second quarter and, when I did, I didn’t go with the standard frosted mug. Tim also went with a water after his coffee. And that doesn’t even take into account only playing one old-time tune during TV time outs and halftime instead of the several we normally shuffle through during the game (we only played one song because of a project we’re working on, so there was a reason for it).

I think our attempt to psych out the Wildcats backfired. Northwestern clearly got upset that we thought so little of them that we could change up the drinking and music routine that has served us and the Blue Devils so well for so many years. We should have known better and we apologize. We won’t make the same mistake next time. We promise.

Anyway, that’s it for the game recap. Let me know what you think about what I think in the comments or on Twitter.

Go Duke!

2022 Game Previews – Duke Faces Northwestern

The first road game of the Elko Era will see Duke travel to Ryan Field to face off against Northwestern this Saturday. Both teams are coming off of wins – the Wildcats beat Nebraska and the Blue Devils soundly defeated Temple. There are a lot of new faces for a Duke team that finds itself fully energized after a big win in Coach Elko’s first game. Likewise, there are a lot of Wildcats who are pumped up after a conference win to start the season. At this point in the year, I’d like to be talking about the specifics of each position and which team has the edge, but I don’t think that we are in a position to do that just yet because, as discussed in more detail below, there’s still a lot we don’t know about this Duke team. But while we don’t yet know a lot about the Blue Devils, we know a little more about the Wildcats from a historical perspective, although it’s still early in the season, so I feel confident resurrecting the trends from last season to discuss the upcoming game. With that in mind, let’s get to it.

Northwestern:

A win and time to prepare. As has been pre-ordained by the Football Gods, a Nebraska team coached by Scott Frost lost a close game by three points. This happened in Week Zero (what a [expletive deleted] stupid name for opening week) in Ireland against Northwestern (the game was held in Ireland because the Big Ten has its eyes on a few Irish teams for the next round of expansion).

While beating Nebraska may not mean much, Frost is an abysmal 16-30 in Lincoln, keep in mind that a lot of those 30 losses have been close ones. The fact that Coach Fitzgerald got a win against a P5 team is a big deal, and the fact that he got it against a team that knows how to keep itself in a game is an even bigger deal, especially after last season’s misery come to life that was 2021’s 3-9 outing. More important, the Wildcats didn’t play in Week 1 (which should be Week Two) and has an extra week of preparation coming into the matchup with Duke. That’s big. Coach Fitzgerald doesn’t have a winning record at a historically not that great of a football school because he’s an idiot. He knows what he’s doing, especially with time to prepare. That additional week should help the Wildcats. As should …

Playing at home. Northwestern gets the advantage of playing at home. That’s big. This team has a lot to prove after last season, and there’s nothing like playing at home in front of your fans and fellow students to give you that extra buzz for a win.

Bouncing back. In looking at Northwestern to draft this post, I noticed something interesting about the Fitzgerald Era. Take a look

Man, but those seasons ending ranked in the Top 25 are enough to make a lesser man jealous.

The Wildcats have regularly bounced back from losing seasons since 2006. In fact, this program has only had back-to-back losing seasons once under Coach Fitzgerald. That was in 2013-2014 when both teams went 5-7. Other than that, Northwestern has always gone from losing to winning, and often to a bowl game. Also, this program has gone from winning season to losing season every year since 2018. If that trend holds, look for a big year from the Wildcats (which probably means a win on Saturday).

Those are the trends that I considered important for the opponent. What about for our guys?

Duke:

Confidence and good vibes. Look, this goes a long, long way towards a good season. Anyone who knows anything about football knows that. Also, those of you who listen to the podcast know that confidence can take you a long way towards your goal. These Blue Devils are confident. They love their coach, they have a lot of (good) energy and they really, really believe they can win games and do something special. Every player I’ve spoken with and everyone close to the program I’ve spoken with has commented on that. It’s a big deal and it’s important. Given that, our boys from Durham have something important on their side heading into Saturday’s game.

A lot to prove. This program has a long ways to go before it’s relevant. While beating Temple is nice, dominating a bad Owls team won’t do much when it comes to rankings and street cred. Now, beating a Big Ten team on the road? That’s another story. Further, the pressure isn’t on Duke coming into this game. They are on the road and are in game two of the Elko Era – the opponent is at home and favored to win. The pressure is on the home team, not the road team. This combination of factors could give the Blue Devils a significant advantage on Saturday.

A lot we don’t know. One of my biggest concerns heading into this season is the lack of depth and the secondary. We really don’t know how good this secondary is because the game last Saturday didn’t tell us much. Temple’s play-calling was horrendous, which is why you typically don’t promote RB coaches all the way to the HC spot, so we can’t say what the secondary will do against a team that is better than the Owls. If the secondary holds up, this could be a fun, fun game.

We also don’t know how good our staff is, particularly Coach Elko. In my game preview for the Northwestern game last season, I compared the two head coaches for that game. Unsurprisingly, I went with Coach Fitzgerald as the better coach. I have to do that by default this time because Coach Elko only has one game as a head coach under him. There’s still a lot about Coach Elko that we don’t know and won’t know until some time passes. Now, that lack of a track record and game film isn’t necessarily a bad thing. It can be used to the advantage of the new coach because tendencies and habits aren’t known by the opposing team. Let’s hope that occurs on Saturday.

There are a lot of other things that I could discuss in regard to what we don’t know. Our quarterback is untested, but confident, and our running backs have gone from reserves to a back-by-committee. There’s a lot more to get into here, but let’s just say that there’s a lot we don’t know about this team and we’ll have to wait until about midway through the season, or longer, to know more.

Head-to-head. There’s one final trend I’d like to bring up. Duke is 11-10 all-time against the Wildcats and has won the last three. Two of those wins came when Daniel Jones was under center and a third came last season when the Wildcats almost pulled out a win after a quarterback change. That game was close and Northwestern was very, very close to getting the win. Based on that, and while I hate to say it, I think the Wildcats are due to get a win. I see them pulling it out against the Blue Devils and taking home a 30-24 win. Again, I stink at score predictions, so don’t use my score prediction to place bets.

While I may be taking Duke to lose, I think that the Blue Devils will play a tough, physical and competitive game. It wouldn’t surprise me if they pull out a win, but, given what I’ve looked at, I have to go with Northwestern in this one. But, hey, I was wrong about the margin of victory last week, so I’m hoping I’ll be wrong again.

Why am I taking the Wildcats? Well, I think that Jim Sumner’s recent article discussed it well. Northwestern was six yards short of two backs running for 100 yards each against Nebraska. Their quarterback, a USC Gamecocks transfer, tossed the ball to nine receivers for a total of 314 yards. That’s against Big Ten competition (which I think is, to some extent, overrated, but it’s still more than what Duke faced last week). Look, I like what I saw from the Blue Devils in Week One, but I’m not betting the farm on this team just yet.

Let me know what you think about what I think in the comments or on Twitter.

Go Duke!

2022 Game Recaps – Duke WINS!!!

It had been since September 25, 2021 that Duke last won a game. After almost a year, eight straight losses, a coaching change and a lot of new faces, the Blue Devils delivered a 30-0 win over Temple and got the Elko Era off to a good start.

Jordan Moore making one of many big plays against the Owls.

It may not have been perfect, and we’ll get into that in the Five Things below, and it may not tell you much about what to expect from this team over the next eleven games, but it was a win. And if any program needed a win, other than Temple, it was Duke. The Blue Devils did a great job controlling the tempo, running the ball, utilizing multiple weapons in the passing game (eight different guys, including two tight ends, caught passes) and being in the right place on defense. Coach Johns put together an outstanding game plan and the co-defensive coordinators, Coaches Smith and Simpson, put the right guys on the field and let them make plays. Duke took a 7-0 lead on the opening drive, sparked by a wheel route in the making that Jordan Moore took almost to the house, and never looked back. It was a fun game to watch.

With that in mind, let’s get to the Five Things starting with the Five Things I liked:

No. 1 – Better personnel usage. On offense, we’ll start with Jordan Moore as a wide receiver. I’ve talked about the need to get our fast guys out in space and it looks like Coach Johns, who I’m sure doesn’t read my blog, already knew that which is why he’s got such a good track record as a player-caller. Moore helped open up the offense and give Calhoun, Pancol and Hagans opportunities to make plays. That helped the running game and it also gave Leonard, who had a really nice game, a chance to take his time, find the right guy and get the ball to that person. The best example of Moore’s ability was the wheel route (more on that below) that he took to an almost-touchdown. Let’s see more of Moore and more creativity on offense. To have a winning program, you need coaches who put players in the best position to make plays and it looks like Coach Johns knows how to do that.

On defense, we saw a guy on the defensive line who didn’t get enough snaps last season finally get the opportunity he needed. I’m talking, of course, about Ja’Mion Franklin. I tweeted, probably daily last year, about how he needed to be on the field more. And two fumble recoveries later it sure looks like I’m not completely crazy. Nor is everyone else who thought the same thing.

I’ve spoken highly about both Moore and Franklin for a while and I’m glad to see them get opportunities. Let’s hope it continues.

No. 2 – We didn’t get hurt by a wheel route. Believe it or not, Duke stopped a wheel route on defense last night. And I don’t mean stop by letting the other team score a touchdown like we saw oh so many times last year. I mean stop by not letting Temple convert a third down. It was a small thing, but I loved it.

And, as mentioned, the Blue Devils ran a wheel route and almost scored a touchdown. Beautiful, just beautiful.

No. 3 – Better tempo on offense. It looked like Coach Johns heard all of our collective complaints and slowed things down. It seemed like there was a concerted effort to run the clock down closer to zero before snapping the ball. There weren’t a lot of forty second drives. Instead, we saw a more methodical, time-consuming approach offensively. While it working against the Owls probably doesn’t mean a whole lot, it should help the defense stay fresh as the season goes on.

No. 4 – Utilizing the tight ends. Look, four catches for thirty-nine yards isn’t a lot, but it tells the opposing defense that the tight ends can’t be ignored. And if you put a body on a tight end, it means you can’t double-cover Pancol, Calhoun or Moore. The tight end is a young quarterback’s best friend, so let’s keep calling for throws to Finney and Dalmolin to help Leonard develop.

No. 5 – Being right. If you look back at my last post, you’ll see that I said there were five things we had to see from Duke. Those five things included: a win; tough, physical and intelligent play; an offense that controls the clock and puts Moore in the slot (I can’t recall where he lined up the most because I was watching TV, drinking an adult beverage and playing old-time music); and a competitive game that referenced how much we’d all love to see the Blue Devils win by 30. Sound like Friday night’s game? Maybe I do know a little bit about this football thing after all.

And an honorable mention goes out to friends of the pod Mem Factor and the Section 17 guys. We saw the back of Mem Factor on TV and we also saw a lot of Bleed Blue shirts. It was pretty cool.

Now, here are the Five Things I didn’t like:

No. 1 – Sloppiness. There were more false starts than I’d like to see. While it didn’t hurt Duke on Friday, it will against better teams. That’s going to have to improve over the course of the season. So, too, will the less than stellar second half. The Blue Devils came out firing on all cylinders to start the game, but after coming away with no points on the last drive of the first half, the offense seemed a little disjointed and like it was looking ahead to Northwestern. Duke scored twenty-four in the first half followed by just six in the second. Not keeping the foot on the gas will hurt this team as the season goes on.

No. 2 – The kicking teams. Consistent with the sloppiness discussed above, Charlie Ham missed three field goals including two short-range field goals. The 51 yarder doesn’t concern me, but the two short-yardage ones do. I’ll give Ham a pass on the one at the end of the first half because it looked like a bad snap, but the Blue Devils can’t afford to leave points on the board. A good kicking game can win you at least two games a year. It can also lose you a lot more.

No. 3 – Clock management at the end of the first half. It sure seemed like Coach Elko should have called a timeout once in the red zone instead of letting the clock get down to about nineteen seconds before the snap (I didn’t write this down as it happened, so my memory may be a little off on the exact time). I also think that Duke had time for one more play before attempting, and missing, a field goal. Again, these little things can win and lose games.

No. 4 – Lack of fans in seats. Nothing new here, but a lot of the fans dressed as empty seats. I hate to see that. I have my own excuses for not being there – three hours away, moving into a new house, starting a new law practice, etc. – but you can bet I’d be there if I lived closer to Durham. I hate that more weren’t on hand. Now, the attendance may have improved as the game went on, but it isn’t like the lousy announcers would tell us anything.

No. 5 – I actually don’t have a number five, so I’ll just grumble about the fact that the TV commentators weren’t great. I think that me and the Section 17 crew, with Freddie Hodges on the field, would be a perfect combo. Any takers?

Let me conclude by saying this – getting a win against what looks like a pretty bad Temple team doesn’t really tell you a whole lot about what to expect from this team. The Northwestern game is likely to be tough as is the Kansas game. We’ll know a lot more after those two games than we know now. That said, I’m excited for the players. This group has been through a lot of misery. The Jump Pass, the nightmare of a season that was 2020 and then, obviously, the disaster that was last year. I’m real glad to see these players to get a win. It’s great for them to be playing for a coach they’ve clearly bought into. And I’m excited that Coach Elko started his tenure as the Blue Devils’ head coach off with a win. But I’m not changing my prediction from 4-8 just yet. This team has to do a little more before I fully buy in. But, again, I’m really, really happy for this team to get a win and I hope to see a lot more of them this season.

And that’s it for the first game recap of the Elko Era. Let me know what you think about what I think in the comments or on Twitter.

Go Duke!