The first road game of the Elko Era will see Duke travel to Ryan Field to face off against Northwestern this Saturday. Both teams are coming off of wins – the Wildcats beat Nebraska and the Blue Devils soundly defeated Temple. There are a lot of new faces for a Duke team that finds itself fully energized after a big win in Coach Elko’s first game. Likewise, there are a lot of Wildcats who are pumped up after a conference win to start the season. At this point in the year, I’d like to be talking about the specifics of each position and which team has the edge, but I don’t think that we are in a position to do that just yet because, as discussed in more detail below, there’s still a lot we don’t know about this Duke team. But while we don’t yet know a lot about the Blue Devils, we know a little more about the Wildcats from a historical perspective, although it’s still early in the season, so I feel confident resurrecting the trends from last season to discuss the upcoming game. With that in mind, let’s get to it.
Northwestern:
A win and time to prepare. As has been pre-ordained by the Football Gods, a Nebraska team coached by Scott Frost lost a close game by three points. This happened in Week Zero (what a [expletive deleted] stupid name for opening week) in Ireland against Northwestern (the game was held in Ireland because the Big Ten has its eyes on a few Irish teams for the next round of expansion).
While beating Nebraska may not mean much, Frost is an abysmal 16-30 in Lincoln, keep in mind that a lot of those 30 losses have been close ones. The fact that Coach Fitzgerald got a win against a P5 team is a big deal, and the fact that he got it against a team that knows how to keep itself in a game is an even bigger deal, especially after last season’s misery come to life that was 2021’s 3-9 outing. More important, the Wildcats didn’t play in Week 1 (which should be Week Two) and has an extra week of preparation coming into the matchup with Duke. That’s big. Coach Fitzgerald doesn’t have a winning record at a historically not that great of a football school because he’s an idiot. He knows what he’s doing, especially with time to prepare. That additional week should help the Wildcats. As should …
Playing at home. Northwestern gets the advantage of playing at home. That’s big. This team has a lot to prove after last season, and there’s nothing like playing at home in front of your fans and fellow students to give you that extra buzz for a win.
Bouncing back. In looking at Northwestern to draft this post, I noticed something interesting about the Fitzgerald Era. Take a look
The Wildcats have regularly bounced back from losing seasons since 2006. In fact, this program has only had back-to-back losing seasons once under Coach Fitzgerald. That was in 2013-2014 when both teams went 5-7. Other than that, Northwestern has always gone from losing to winning, and often to a bowl game. Also, this program has gone from winning season to losing season every year since 2018. If that trend holds, look for a big year from the Wildcats (which probably means a win on Saturday).
Those are the trends that I considered important for the opponent. What about for our guys?
Duke:
Confidence and good vibes. Look, this goes a long, long way towards a good season. Anyone who knows anything about football knows that. Also, those of you who listen to the podcast know that confidence can take you a long way towards your goal. These Blue Devils are confident. They love their coach, they have a lot of (good) energy and they really, really believe they can win games and do something special. Every player I’ve spoken with and everyone close to the program I’ve spoken with has commented on that. It’s a big deal and it’s important. Given that, our boys from Durham have something important on their side heading into Saturday’s game.
A lot to prove. This program has a long ways to go before it’s relevant. While beating Temple is nice, dominating a bad Owls team won’t do much when it comes to rankings and street cred. Now, beating a Big Ten team on the road? That’s another story. Further, the pressure isn’t on Duke coming into this game. They are on the road and are in game two of the Elko Era – the opponent is at home and favored to win. The pressure is on the home team, not the road team. This combination of factors could give the Blue Devils a significant advantage on Saturday.
A lot we don’t know. One of my biggest concerns heading into this season is the lack of depth and the secondary. We really don’t know how good this secondary is because the game last Saturday didn’t tell us much. Temple’s play-calling was horrendous, which is why you typically don’t promote RB coaches all the way to the HC spot, so we can’t say what the secondary will do against a team that is better than the Owls. If the secondary holds up, this could be a fun, fun game.
We also don’t know how good our staff is, particularly Coach Elko. In my game preview for the Northwestern game last season, I compared the two head coaches for that game. Unsurprisingly, I went with Coach Fitzgerald as the better coach. I have to do that by default this time because Coach Elko only has one game as a head coach under him. There’s still a lot about Coach Elko that we don’t know and won’t know until some time passes. Now, that lack of a track record and game film isn’t necessarily a bad thing. It can be used to the advantage of the new coach because tendencies and habits aren’t known by the opposing team. Let’s hope that occurs on Saturday.
There are a lot of other things that I could discuss in regard to what we don’t know. Our quarterback is untested, but confident, and our running backs have gone from reserves to a back-by-committee. There’s a lot more to get into here, but let’s just say that there’s a lot we don’t know about this team and we’ll have to wait until about midway through the season, or longer, to know more.
Head-to-head. There’s one final trend I’d like to bring up. Duke is 11-10 all-time against the Wildcats and has won the last three. Two of those wins came when Daniel Jones was under center and a third came last season when the Wildcats almost pulled out a win after a quarterback change. That game was close and Northwestern was very, very close to getting the win. Based on that, and while I hate to say it, I think the Wildcats are due to get a win. I see them pulling it out against the Blue Devils and taking home a 30-24 win. Again, I stink at score predictions, so don’t use my score prediction to place bets.
While I may be taking Duke to lose, I think that the Blue Devils will play a tough, physical and competitive game. It wouldn’t surprise me if they pull out a win, but, given what I’ve looked at, I have to go with Northwestern in this one. But, hey, I was wrong about the margin of victory last week, so I’m hoping I’ll be wrong again.
Why am I taking the Wildcats? Well, I think that Jim Sumner’s recent article discussed it well. Northwestern was six yards short of two backs running for 100 yards each against Nebraska. Their quarterback, a USC Gamecocks transfer, tossed the ball to nine receivers for a total of 314 yards. That’s against Big Ten competition (which I think is, to some extent, overrated, but it’s still more than what Duke faced last week). Look, I like what I saw from the Blue Devils in Week One, but I’m not betting the farm on this team just yet.
Let me know what you think about what I think in the comments or on Twitter.
Go Duke!
Bull City Coordinators - A Duke Football Blog 