2022 Game Previews – A Battle of the Undefeated

It’s a situation that not many saw coming at the start of the season, but here we are – an undefeated Duke team will take on an undefeated Kansas team in Lawrence on Saturday at 12 EST. This should be a real, real fun game. Beyond the fact that both teams are undefeated, this will be the game that tells us where the Blue Devils are as they head into conference play. And if Duke can get a win on the road against what looks like a pretty good Jayhawks team, we may well be talking about the Blue Devils going bowling (more on that below).

Now, before we get into the game preview, I want to say something about my approach to this season which I would describe as a copious amount of cautious, cautious optimism. I’ve seen too many Duke teams start hot and then fall apart once conference play hits. Accordingly, I resolved this season to be patient, not get sucked in and wait before making snap judgments. I’m not the one to take a stan approach to this team. Look, you all know I’m a fan – I do this in my spare time and make no money off of it, so you know I support this team – but I am a realistic fan. Dour realism is my brand and I’m sticking to it.

But I do want to say this – I believe in this team. I believe that this team can win enough games to get to a bowl. So, what should we expect on Saturday? Here are my thoughts:

No. 1 – Lots of running the ball. Lots of it. Kansas, as I noted in my NCA&T recap, can run the ball. The Jayhawks ran for 200 yards against West Virginia and followed it up with 280 against Houston. Read that again – 280 against Houston. That’s a lot. Well, Duke can run the ball, too. Over their first three games, the Blue Devils put up 172, 221 and 222 yards, respectively. And I expect that trend to continue on Saturday. The critical issue in the game will be which team can run the ball the best on offense and which team can do the best to stop the run defensively.

No. 2 – A lot of points. A Big 12 team is probably all we need to say about Kansas and its ability to score. But what about Duke? This team has been playing well offensively over the first three weeks. 30 points in Week 1, 31 in Week Two and 49 last week. And last year’s 52-33 thrill fest? Well, that’s a recipe for an over-under of 64.5 (I’d take the over on that, but I am trash at betting).

No. 3 – Explosive plays. Steve Wiseman pointed out that both teams have guys who can make plays. When you look at the ability of both running games, which includes the quarterbacks, you have to expect to see a number of plays for twenty or more yards. Let’s just hope we see the Blue Devils make a few more than the Jayhawks on Saturday. And, given the number of points the opposing team has given up in its last two games, and the amount of passing yards given up, I expect to see some big runs, long passing routes and an exciting clash of two talented offenses.

No. 4 – Two teams with a lot to prove. For Duke, we know that this team is trying to get out of the shadow of 2.5 lousy seasons. But we’ll come back to that later. For Kansas, this game likely means a lot more than shrugging off a few awful seasons given the history of the program. The Jayhawks have been a perennial doormat for a long, long time. Throughout my life, Kansas has only been to seven bowl games (I’m 41 folks!). Most of those took place during Mark Mangino’s tenure as head coach. Since that tenure ended? Ten last place finishes in conference. Let me repeated that – ten. That’s. A. Lot. At 3-0 with a chance to beat a p5 school, you can bet this team is going to come out ready to prove something.

But, to conclude my point about two teams having a lot to prove, I want to note that the Blue Devils have a lot to gain from this win. A. Lot. Getting to 4-0 would leave this team just two wins away from a bowl. And when you look at Duke’s conference schedule, you have to think that a bowl game is certainly possible (which is hard to believe given how bad of a season most folks expected for the team). The Blue Devils have very winnable games against Georgia Tech and Boston College. Duke also has a stretch of games that could go either way against UVA, UNC and Virginia Tech (I consider these either way games as opposed to very winnable based on the recent history between the Blue Devils and these teams). Looking at those five games I listed, and I know the team can’t look ahead, but we can and I will, a bowl game isn’t out of the question. Getting a road win against a Big 12 game will go a long, long way to locking up bowl eligibility. Which takes us to …

No. 5 – An exciting game. I’m not sure how this game will play out, but I get the sense it will be an offensive slugfest between the two teams. Duke gave up points against Northwestern and almost let the game slip away at the end. The Jayhawks have also given up a lot of points the last two weeks. While there is a lot we don’t know about this Blue Devils defense given the level of competition in weeks one and three, we do know that the Kansas defense can give up points. So, regardless of the outcome, I think it’s going to be exciting to watch. And win or lose, this should be a fun game. I say that because this Duke team seems to be the type to go out, compete and enjoy the moment. These guys don’t appear to be the type to get overwhelmed by the moment.

Now, while I believe in this team, I’m not taking the Blue Devils to win. I’m going to go with the Jayhawks. Here are my reasons why –

No. 1 – Kansas has played, and beaten, better competition. No knock on who Duke has played, but beating West Virginia and Houston says a little bit more than beating a bad Temple team, NCA&T and what is looking like a not good Northwestern team that just lost to a previously winless Southern Illinois team.

No. 2 – Kicking team woes. Given the high-octane nature of these two offenses, this is the kind of game that could come down to field goals. Based on what we’ve seen so far from the Blue Devils in the kicking game, I get a sense that a few missed field goals will likely tilt the game towards the Jayhawks. This game feels like one that will be close for a long time and may favor Kansas late. But the opposing kicker hasn’t been lights out in his career, either, so the boys from the Bull City may be on equal footing with the guys from Lawrence in this respect.

No. 3 – I have to pick someone. Look, in all honesty, I view this game as a toss-up. It could easily go either way. What I like about this Duke team is that they play confident, fast and with a belief in the coaching staff and one another. That’s a recipe for victory in games that, all things being equal, a team probably shouldn’t win. Based on what we’ve seen so far, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Blue Devils win this game. Coach Elko talked about being smart with a tempo offense to help the defense and I would expect that to continue on Saturday in order to keep the defense fresh and keep the opposing offense off the field. If Duke can do that on Saturday, it shouldn’t shock anyone to see them come away with a win and get to 4-0. This is a hard one for me to pick, so while I’m taking the Jayhawks, I view this game as a pure toss-up.

Now, with that all out of the way, I’m going with Kansas to eek out a win by a score of 45-34 thanks to some late scores. As I mentioned above, I get the sense that we’ll miss a few field goals and it will come back to haunt us. But, regardless of the outcome, if the Blue Devils lose this game and end non-conference play at 3-1, we should all be optimistic about a bowl game. This team has games against Georgia Tech, UVA, BC, UNC and VT coming up which means there’s a good chance to get to six wins and a bowl. And I think that this team can do that.

So, that’s it for the game preview. Let me know what you think about what I think in the comments or on Twitter.

Go Duke!