2021 Game Previews – Duke versus UVA

Duke sure started the season hot at 3-1, but that seems like a distant memory at this point. The Blue Devils are 3-3 after a blowout loss to UNC and another blown lead against Georgia Tech. Tailspin would be a generous way to describe the feeling most of us have at this point. Even the usually upbeat Section 17 crew was pretty pessimistic in its most recent podcast episode. But not me, I’m never one who comes off as a downer and assumes the worst will happen … Yeah, right. This is me we’re talking about.

For my preview this week, I’m going to turn to what I’ve been doing a lot of this season — trends. Since Bronco Mendenhall arrived at UVA in 2016, the Cavaliers have gone 34-34, made it to 3 bowl games and captured the Coastal in 2016. Even in UVA’s worst season under Mendenhall, a 2-10 campaign in 2016, the Cavs still managed to beat Duke. In fact, Mendenhall has never lost to the Blue Devils. Let that sink in for a minute – not even with Daniel Jones could Cutcliffe get a win against Mendenhall. While I like the players on this team a lot, the trends tell a story – Mendenhall is outcoaching Cutcliffe.

Can Duke win this game? Of course. The Blue Devils have a good offensive unit that can score points pretty consistently. A good QB, RB and WR corps (including recent usage of our TEs) can do a lot of damage. Duke’s defense is getting better each week which is another good sign. Factor in the improved OL and you have to think that our boys from Durham have a shot. After all, this UVA team has been pretty inconsistent all season. That said, the Cavs have a real good QB (again, so do the Blue Devils) and won two close games in two weeks. That’s important to keep in mind if this game ends up tight late. Good teams overcome. Bad teams find ways to lose (like repeatedly covering zero instead of conceding the FG to send the game to OT).

To cut to the chase, because I’m starting to feel like I say the same darned thing each week, I like Duke to hang in there, but for UVA to pull it out in the third or fourth. It will probably be like one of those games I grew up watching in the 90s. The Blue Devils would give me hope for a while, but then let the game slip away late. With that in mind, I’m taking UVA to win by a score of 38-27.

Go Duke!