2022 Game Previews – Duke hosts the Cavaliers

After a heartbreaking loss against Kansas to close out non-conference play, Duke takes on UVA at home this Saturday. The game starts at 7:30 p.m., weather permitting, and the first conference game of the Elko Era will be a night game at Wallace Wade. Is there a better way to kick things off? Other than with a win, I mean. But, back to the point of this post. What can we expect from the Blue Devils in this game?

Just as the Jayhawks were a tough test and a formidable opponent, the Cavaliers will not be an easy out for Duke. While UVA may be a mediocre 2-2 on the season, they still have Brennan Armstrong at quarterback who, no matter what he’s done so far this season, remains capable of lighting up the scoreboard at any moment. New coach Tony Elliott hasn’t been all the Cavaliers have hoped for offensively, but he has sure turned around the defense. As Jim Sumner pointed out in his latest post, it appears that the UVA defense is being coached by a modern-day equivalent of Julius Caesar, Agrippa, Hannibal and Alexander. This is almost certainly the best defense the Blue Devils have faced all season. As of the time that I last checked today, UVA is ranked 51st in total defense and gives up an average of 350 yards per game. That’s well ahead of 94th ranked Kansas. Beating this team would be a real statement win for Duke.

To win this game, the Blue Devils will need to be more balanced than they were last week against the Jayhawks. We will need to see more running the ball and better communication and execution defensively. We can’t see another game with a host of missed tackles and poor execution on critical downs which allow drives to continue. That, of course, does nothing more than wear the defense down. The critical down deficiencies have been present against both Northwestern and Kansas this season to a point that it is almost a worrisome trend. Coach Elko and his staff will have to find a way to stop UVA on 3rd and 4th down in order to get a win.

Can Duke win? Recent history would say no. The Blue Devils have not beaten the Cavaliers since 2014. This is a long losing streak that you can bet Duke is ready to break. And this team can do it. The defense plays well enough to keep the team in the game and the offense is not getting overwhelmed by the moment. The quarterback, receivers and offensive line are working together and, with the exception of last week, the running game has been very good. If the defense can be opportunistic, smart and execute on critical downs, the Bull City Boys can come away with a win Saturday night. And hopefully it will not be a rainy Saturday night because I do not want to spend about 6 hours in the car roundtrip to get rained on.

Now, as I have mentioned on Twitter a few times, I am trying to change my brand a little bit. During the Cutcliffe Era, I developed a reputation as a bitter truth teller who would point out how bad the program was as opposed to being a stan account. Now, though, it seems that the Elko Era is full of hope, promise and possibility. Accordingly, I don’t think that continuing to be a sarcastic, bitter old man is necessarily the brand for me at this time. So, I’m going to try something a little different with game previews going forward. I hope you all enjoy this. And if it doesn’t work, I’ll just revert back to being a grumpy, bitter old man.

With a win Saturday, Duke can accomplish the following feats:

Number 1 – Beat UVA for the first time since 2014. That is a long losing streak that I think we all want to see come to end. Hopefully, we will see it end and we’ll get a little payback for all those bad losses we had in 2019 (48-14) and 2021 (48-0).

Number 2 – Get a conference win for the first time in the last 13 games. The last time the Blue Devils got an ACC win was all the way back in 2020 against Syracuse in what was, at best, an ugly win.

Number 3 – Coach Elko can guarantee no worse than four wins and one conference win on the season. This would have him on par with what Coaches Cutcliffe and Wilson did during their first seasons, ahead of Coach Franks during his first season, better than Coach Roof during his first full season as head coach and close to the performance of Coach Spurrier during his first season when he went 5-6.

Number 4 – Remain hot. We’re all used to the Blue Devils starting hot and cooling off once ACC play hits. Do I need to recount all the times this happened? Probably not, but I will anyway – 2015 (started 6-1 and finished 8-5), 2017 (started 4-0 and finished 7-6), 2018 (started 5-1 and finished 8-5) and 2019 (started 4-2 and finished 5-7).

So, with all of this in mind, who will win on Saturday and by what margin? For that, let’s start with our guest picker Matt Barbee. He is taking Duke over UVA by a score of 34-21. And, before you ask, I intend to make guest picks a recurring segment going forward. I hope you like hearing from other people and, since I’m awful at picking scores, maybe you can hear from someone who can get it right once in a while.

Do I also have the Blue Devils winning? Yes I do, Other Barry, yes I do. Based on the Cavaliers’ offensive performance over the season, I don’t see UVA putting up a lot of points. But given the strength of the Cavaliers’ defense, I see the game being a close one. All told, I am taking Duke over UVA by a score of 31-24. This will be a close one, but one that I think the Blue Devils will win.

And that’s it for the game recap. Let me know what you think about what I think in the comments or on Twitter.

Go Duke!