2022 Game Previews – Duke v. Pitt

As Rome expanded from city to Mediterranean power, perhaps its greatest rival was the Samnites. After an overwhelming defeat at the Battle of the Caudine Forks in 321 BC, Rome regrouped and methodically dismantled the Samnites. Over a series of three wars which concluded in 290 BC, the Samnites were defeated, assimilated into Rome and attained full citizenship as a result of the Social War. While never able to defeat Rome, the Samnites were one of Rome’s fiercest enemies and fought against the Romans whenever the chance presented itself. For example, the Samnites joined with Hannibal during the Second Punic War and with King Pyrrhus during the Pyrrhic War.

I bring this interesting historical tidbit up because, while it was a fierce rivalry, the Rome-Samnite Rivalry was rather one-sided. So, too, is the current rivalry between Duke and Pitt. The Panthers lead the Blue Devils in the all-time series by a healthy 16-9 margin. Since Pitt joined the ACC, Duke has only notched one win against their Coastal rival – a 51-48 victory in 2OT which involved Chris Blewitt missing a 26-yard FG attempt at the end of regulation that followed two consecutive Blue Devil timeouts. And while there have been some high-scoring affairs (58-55 in 2013, 54-45 in 2018 and 33-30 in 2019), the Panthers have, in no uncertain terms, owned Duke. Since 2013, Pitt is 7-1 against the Blue Devils.

So, will this year be any different? Possibly. The Panthers have taken a step back this year. Sitting at 6-4 with two games to go, this isn’t the season that a lot of people expected after winning the ACC Championship last year. Nonetheless, it’s a bowl eligible season with two games to go. While Pitt is far from perfect, close losses against Tennessee and Georgia Tech say that this team isn’t too far off from being 8-2. (And we know how close losses feel!) Plus, the Panthers put an end to a two-game losing streak with a 19-9 victory over Syracuse and followed it up with a 37-7 shellacking of UVA. While this Pitt team may not be a repeat of the 2021 edition, this installment has the ability to win each game it plays. And that’s exactly what you’d expect from the 15th ranked defense. These guys only give up 4.88 yards per play and holds offenses to 309.8 yards per game. However, this team is only 60th in total offense. So, what does that team for Saturday?

Look, this is going to be one of the best defenses Duke has faced all year. The Blue Devils will have to make the gameplan simple and continue to do what they’ve done all year – run the football and keep the chains moving. But that may be hard because the Panthers only give up 97.7 rushing yards per game. So, what do you do then? Well, you try to get things going through the air which is where Pitt may be vulnerable at 212.1 yards per contest. With Leonard’s ability to scramble, and receivers like Jordan Moore, Robertson, Hagans and Calhoun, Duke may just find a way to put up enough points to get a win. It won’t be easy, but the football gods have seen the Blue Devils lose enough to the Panthers. Right? Isn’t it time that Duke get a win in this series? I sure think so. But, again, history has not been kind to our guys.

So, what can we expect on Saturday? Generally, these two teams typically put up high-scoring affairs. The current over/under is 52.5 which history would tell you to take. My only hesitation would be the relative strength of Pitt’s defense. So, um, yeah, don’t take any betting advice from me. Look, guys, I’m just kind of rambling to avoid making a prediction here because the football gods have been so, so unfair to us in this rivalry. To buy myself a little more time, let’s check in with our guest picker and friend of the podcast Dan Siegel who has this to say:

Pitt 28, Duke 24. These two teams are evenly matched enough to the point where I take Duke to cover, even on the road. That being said, Pitt has figured out their defense and their pass rush has especially been dominant, with 14 sacks over their past two games. With Duke’s offense predicated more on moving the ball in short chunks/avoiding mistakes rather than explosiveness, I’d say they fall just short.

Thanks, Dan, for doing this. If you like what Dan has to say, check out his podcast on YouTube.

I’m not going to pick the 7.5 point favorite in this game. No, I’m going with the Blue Devils to eek out an insanely close 30-24 win. Todd Pelino will hit a 40+ yarder to seal the game which will force Josh Cox into man crush territory. Write it down – I’m taking Duke to win and get to 8-3. This has been a great season for the Blue Devils and I know this team will be motivated to keep it going.

Now, that’s it for the game recap which means we’ve got another old-time tune. This one is called Big Scioty (aka Big Sciota). It’s a classic.

Great. Song.

Before we conclude, I’d like to take a minute to update you on dad’s treatment. He is starting chemotherapy today and is probably going through a rough time. Please pass on any prayers, good vibes and positive thoughts you all may have. Dad could use them. And I know he got a lot from the first and second set of messages, so hopefully he’ll get a lot more from whatever else you all can do for him.

That’s it for the game recap. Let me know what you think about what I think in the comments, on Twitter or on Reddit.

As always, Go Duke!