Duke plays seven home games, gets one bye week and has all of its Carolina games in October. That could be a rough stretch. The end of the schedule also looks rough as Duke will have to battle three teams that went to bowls last year. Duke has a real shot to start well, but then things will get rough. Pitt, Wake and UNC will all present challenges. Notre Dame will coast to a second straight win against Duke. If Duke can start well, finish well and hover around .500 during the middle of the season, the Blue Devils may get back to a bowl game.
We previously predicted 7-5 this season with the caveat that 5-7 wouldn’t be a surprise. I’m standing by that after looking at the schedule. In fact, I’m trending closer to 5-7 now. I hope I’m wrong and that the Blue Devils turn things around and get back to winning games this year.
We’re continuing our discussion of next season by looking at Duke’s 2020 opponents. While the Blue Devils don’t have to play Clemson or Alabama, we do get a date with Notre Dame. Let’s burn the tape from 2019.
Duke starts off the season with three non-conference games against Middle Tennessee, Elon and Charlotte. I think Duke will win the first two, but don’t be surprised if the Blue Devils struggle against Charlotte. The 49ers went 7-6 in 2019 (and concluded the season with a loss in the Bahamas Bowl) and will probably roll into Durham with a lot of confidence. The 49ers QB will be a junior this year and ready to get a big win. What would be better than knocking off Duke in Durham? I’ll feel better about this game after knowing: a) who the Blue Devils start at QB; and b) how the offense performs with that new QB at the helm.
Let’s assume that Duke starts off 3-0. What happens when the Blue Devils go to South Bend? Probably not this
I’m putting money down on a loss. The Irish return a 5th-year senior at quarterback and went 11-2 in 2019 with a bowl win. Notre Dame absolutely slaughtered Duke in 2019. Let’s be realistic – best case scenario for Duke after the first 4 games is 3-1.
After that, the Blue Devils turn to the ACC schedule. The 2020 squad will face off against UVA, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Miami, NC State, Pitt, Wake and UNC. Duke’s best chances for wins will be against Georgia Tech, NC State and Miami or Wake. UVA is a possible as is UNC, but neither are locks. God has ordained that Duke can’t beat Pitt, so let’s table that one and go through the conference schedule in more detail.
Georgia Tech is still adapting to a new system which gives Duke the edge, especially if the game is early in the season when the Blue Devils historically are at their best. NC State somehow managed to look worse than Duke in 2019 and that’s saying something. I watched a little bit of State this year and the QBs were underwhelming at best. If that continues, Duke is likely to pull out a win. State recently rearranged the offensive coaching staff and moved former Blue Devil OC Kurt Roper to RB coach, but I don’t think that will fix what’s been wrong with the Wolfpack of late. My money is on Duke.
As for Miami, Duke somehow managed to play well at the end of 2019 and get a win. Beyond the end to the season, Duke has played pretty well against Miami of late, earning wins in 2018 and 2019. Duke should have gotten a win in 2015, too (thanks, ACC refs) and managed a win in 2013.
If history is any guide, we should not be talking about Duke getting a win against Wake. They have owned the Blue Devils of late. But let’s keep things in context. The 2018 loss had a lot to do with injuries and the team being broken from the cumulative burden of everyone getting hurt who could get hurt. The 2019 loss somehow managed to get Duke going again and preceded the victory at Miami. Wake will be breaking in a new QB as their top two are leaving the school. So, basically, I’m telling you there’s a chance.
What about UVA? Much like with Pitt, Duke has been dominated by UVA since Mendenhall took over the Cavs. UVA will have a new QB, though, as Perkins is (finally) gone. My VA Tech fan friends all say that UVA without Perkins isn’t as strong of a team. I’ve had the same thoughts over the years – Perkins elevated that team beyond its talent level – and am glad to hear people who watching the Cavs a lot say the same thing. Let’s hope that assessment is correct and UVA takes a step back. If so, Duke could squeeze out a win. Plus, aren’t the Blue Devils due?
That brings us to UNC. Duke lost a game last year it should have won. The defense played well. They picked off Howell twice and held him to 10 completions on 26 attempts. The Blue Devils gave up a lot of running yards, but not a lot of points – the classic bend-don’t-break approach that has defined Duke for years. Given the rivalry, this game is winnable. That said, I’d put money on UNC right now. Depending on how the season goes, my assessment may change.
What about the rest of the schedule? I’m not comfortable saying Duke will repeat against Virginia Tech. Fuente turned the Hokies around after losing to the Blue Devils and Duke kind of gave up after that game. The teams seem to play better against one another on the road and the Blue Devils host this year.
My overall prediction for the conference is 4-4. I think 5 wins is the ceiling. As far as the season as a whole, I have Duke going 7-5 and possibly 8-4. I feel okay saying that Duke is 3-1 heading into the conference schedule. After that, Duke most likely picks up 4 more wins and finishes in the middle of the Coastal. I’m expecting struggles once the conference games start just like what we’ve seen every year with the exception of 2013 (and another 5-7 season wouldn’t stun me). That said, if the Blue Devils can go 7-5 with a third quarterback in three seasons and get back to a bowl game, I’d be real, real pleased.
Thoughts? Agree? Disagree? What do you think? Tell us in the comments below.
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