Biggest Needs for 2020

With the 2019 season over for the Blue Devils, let’s look ahead to the biggest areas of need for next season. Despite the 5-7 finish, Duke has a lot to look forward to in 2020.

The defensive line, anchored by the likes of Chris Rumph, Victor Dimukeje, Tahj Rice, Derrick Tangelo and Drew Jordan, should be strong. The secondary will continue to do well even with the departure of Dylan Singleton. And while Koby Quansah will hopefully be playing in the NFL next year, Shaka Heyward and Brandon Hill ought to be able to pick up the slack. Quansah jumped in for Ben Humphreys and Joe Giles-Harris and didn’t miss a beat. Let’s hope history repeats itself.

On the offensive side of the ball, the running back stable is loaded. Duke brings back Deon Jackson and Mataeo Durant and hopefully a healthy Brittain Brown. Marvin Hubbard should also be back after sitting out this season recovering from an Achilles injury.

The wide receivers look good, too. While Scott Bracey is almost certainly gone, the Blue Devils will bring back Jalen Calhoun, Jake Bobo, Eli Pancol and Darrell Harding, Jr. And while he may not catch a lot of passes, expect Damon Philyaw-Johnson to give Duke good field position on kick (and hopefully punt) returns.

The real question is whether Duke will have someone to get the receivers the ball. And this brings us to the first need for next season — quarterback.

While Quentin Harris wasn’t particularly great at getting his receivers the ball, he at least brought certainty to the position — you knew who the quarterback was each week. Next season there will be a lot of uncertainty.

The Blue Devils return the following quarterbacks next year (designation for 2020 in parentheses): Chris Katrenick (R-Jr.); Gunnar Holmberg (R-So.); Gavin Spurrier (So.); Jack Colyar (So.); Robert Nelson (So.); and Daniel Karlin (Sr.). Of those, Katrenick and Holmberg are the likely candidates to get the starting nod.

Katrenick was the second-string quarterback this year, had Holmberg not torn his meniscus, Holmberg may have been in Katreinick’s spot and might also have taken Harris’ job. While some folks have raised concerns about his size, the buzz is that Holmberg can play.

But don’t go all in with Holmberg just yet. Duke has a recruit from California, Luca Daimont who can ball. If you haven’t seen any footage of him, go to YouTube or Hudl or wherever and enjoy. Daimont can throw deep, run fast and break ankles.

Given Duke’s fondness for an RPO scheme with QB runs, Diamont fits in great. The QB competition will be interesting. But neither has any experience to speak of (Holmberg has a few snaps from 2018) and not every first-time starter turns into Trevor Lawrence.

There has also been some chatter on social media, that South Carolina quarterback, Jake Bentley may consider transferring to Duke. Though that may be wishful thinking, if it did come to fruition, it would provide the Blue Devils with some experience in the quarterback mix. Bentley had a good career in Columbia. He threw for over 7,500 yards and 55 touchdowns. He’s also near the top of a lot of statistical categories. He’d be an excellent addition for 2020.

Until the quarterback situation works itself out, the Blue Devils will need to rely heavily on their kicking game if they want to win games, which brings us to our second need for 2020, a punter.

Coming into 2019, I liked Austin Parker, but always viewed him as a three-and-thirty guy (three second of hang time and 30 yards net). But he punted like Will Monday down the stretch this season. When he wasn’t running or trying to throw for a first down, he was snagging 70 plus yard punts. His end of season stats were pretty good — 45.7 yards per punt and a 41.1 net. That will flip the field and give your defense a chance to get stops.

His replacement will be Porter Wilson. He’s a three-star kid from Ohio and the buzz was pretty positive. I’m excited to see what he can do although I will miss Parker.

The field goal kicking situation is a little murky and is our third area of need – a kicker. AJ Reed entered the transfer portal and is probably gone. Reed had a really good year (15-18 FGs (some were missed due to snaps, holds and weather) and 34-34 XPs) including a 51-yard field goal. At times he was our best offensive weapon. Losing him could be disastrous. Remember what happened when Ross Martin left? Yeah, let’s not go there.

The Blue Devils do have a highly rated kicker waiting in the wings, Charlie Ham. He was a 3-star recruit and was ranked 11th nationally according to 247. I’ve seen him ranked 5th nationally elsewhere. Whatever ranking you choose, the consensus is that he’s good which means the odds are he will do well. That said, Reed was also highly touted but took a while to settle in. Let’s hope that Ham picks up where Reed left off (assuming Reed leaves).

And those are what I think are the biggest needs going into 2020 from a personnel perspective. We’ll have more on the coaching staff later.

While you wait for that, tell us what you think in the comments below. What are the biggest needs going into next season?

Eight Blue Devils Nab All-ACC Honors

Duke’s football season ended unceremoniously last Saturday, but despite the disappointment, the Blue Devils did grab some ACC-Honors.

While no Blue Deivls made it on the first team, they did land on the second team roster. Those included Tight end Noah Gray, Defensive End Victor Dimukeje and Damond Philyaw-Johnson who got All-ACC honors for his special team’s play.

Defensive end Chris Rumph II and linebacker Koby Quansah were named to the third team. Center Jack Wohlabaugh, kicker AJ Reed and punter Austin Parker were named All-ACC Honorable mention.

Gray a junior tight end was quarterback Quentin Harris’ favorite target. He caught 51 passes for 392 yards and 3 touchdowns. Gray has all the size and talent to be an NFL caliber tight end and if he opts to return for his senior year could put up big numbers with the right quarterback.

Dimukeje was a stalwart on the defensive front, recording 8.5 sacks. He will be anchor on the Duke defensive front next season.

Philyaw-Johnson, was a late season sensation after his two kickoff returns for touchdowns against Wake Forest. The sophomore wide receiver didn’t put up much in the way of numbers on offense but proved to be a capable returner with 549 yards on 18 returns and two touchdowns. As a junior he could prove to be an asset as both a receiver and returner.

Rumph and Quansah were big contributors on the defensive side of the ball. Quansah will leave the program but Rumph should return and help provide a formidable defensive front with the likes of Dimukeje next season.

The absence of any players on the first team, speaks more to the inconsistencies of the Blue Devils and their failure to reach a bowl game. While there certainly be some hand wringing in Durham after a disappointing season, the cupboard is far from bare.

2019 Duke Football – More of the Same

What follows below is a recap of the 2019 season with some thoughts on how this season compares to how Duke’s done since 2012. There’s also discussion of what to expect going forward. Read at your own peril.

Duke finished this season 5-7 overall and missed a bowl game. While not being bowl eligible has been the exception since 2012, this team’s overall performance is pretty much classic Duke under David Cutcliffe. Since 2012 (I’m excluding the 2013 campaign for reasons that will become clear), Duke has finished with the following records:

  • 6-7;
  • 9-4;
  • 8-5;
  • 4-8 (season ruined by injuries);
  • 7-6;
  • 8-5 (more injuries); and now
  • 5-7.

That’s a total of 6.7 wins a year. That puts the 2019 Duke team 1.7 wins shy of its average. Had Duke gotten to six wins and gone to a low-tier bowl like it did the last two years, the Blue Devils would have finished with a 7-6 record and continued its streak of being an average team. And that was attainable given how the Pitt and UNC games played out. So 2019 isn’t really that far off from what Duke’s average performance. While some of us, myself included, expected more, maybe we shouldn’t have.

But beyond the overall record, let’s look at how Duke’s done in the ACC and how the 2019 season fits with that performance. From 2012 to the present (again, I’m excluding 2013), Duke has posted the following conference records:

  • 3-5 (T-5th in Coastal);
  • 5-3 (2nd in Coastal);
  • 4-4 (T-4th in Coastal);
  • 1-7 (T-6th in Coastal);
  • 3-5 (T-4th in Coastal);
  • 3-5 (6th in Coastal); and
  • 3-5 (6th in Coastal).

Notice the trend? Duke has hovered right around the bottom of the Coastal since 2012 and especially over the last 5 years. The 5-3 season is a clear outlier. The last three seasons show the norm – a sub-.500 conference record and a strange 3-5 model of consistency. The 2019 team rose to the challenge of being average. This season isn’t that different from what we’ve seen since 2012. In fact, it’s what we usually get every year.

It should be obvious why I excluded the 2013 season in which the Blue Devils went 10-4 overall and 6-2 in conference. It’s a statistical anomaly. It’s a unicorn. Whatever you want to call it, that season is something that is unlikely to be repeated at Duke (I don’t have enough alcohol to play the “What If” game when it comes to the 2018 team). It lines up with what happened at Ole Miss in 2003 – ten wins, a division title and a level of success that wasn’t replicated at any other point during Cutcliffe’s tenure as head coach.

Can we expect better from Cutcliffe going forward? I doubt it. Cutcliffe has been at Duke since 2008. In 12 years at the helm and 8 since completing his rebuild, the win-loss record speaks for itself. Going back to his time at Ole Miss, Cutcliffe managed one season with a winning conference record, two 3-5 seasons and three straight 4-4 campaigns. The trend is there for everyone to notice. Cutcliffe’s teams play to the middle at best and the bottom at worst. Occasionally a team will overachieve, but those seasons outliers.

While there is a lot of talk about how Duke has improved under Cutcliffe, and that is true, what heights have the Blue Devils reached? Other than a two-season stretch that included an ACC Coastal crown and berths in the Peach (sorry, but that’s what I’m calling it) and Sun Bowls, not much. While Duke has won three bowl games, they beat a 6-6 Indiana team, Northern Illinois and a Rutgers team with an interim coach. Hardly the stuff of football lore. Duke’s best bowl win is against an Indiana team that was 2-6 in the Big Ten. The coach from that team is no longer there. The phrase “Not great, Bob” comes to mind.

I want Duke to be better next season, but I’m not unrealistic. The schedule looks tough (and we’ll have more on that later) and I don’t see how the Blue Devils do much better than they did this season. There are uncertainties at quarterback and in the kicking game. With changes at these critical positions, what can we really expect?

After the 2018 season, I told a friend that Duke was going to range somewhere between 4 wins at worst and 8 wins at best. Unless Duke really shakes up its offensive system, we shouldn’t expect much more than what Duke did this year. While the Blue Devils didn’t make a bowl, they continued the trend of more of the mediocre same.

Let’s hope for some improvement next year and that Coach Cutcliffe takes the team to new heights. Go Duke!

Duke Rides Out Hurricanes in Season Finale

Duke enjoyed a sweet end to a sour season by knocking off ACC foe Miami in their final game of the season.

The Blue Devils came from behind in the fourth quarter to pull out the 27-17 victory, and while the win will be enshrined in the weight room and ended their 5-game losing streak it ultimately puts Duke (5-7, 3-5 ACC) one game shy of another bowl birth.

Miami who has struggled this year under first year coach Manny Diaz, was already bowl eligible and looking to bounce back after an embarrassing loss last week to FIU.

The Hurricanes, much like most of the year proved just how far removed from the glory days of the program they have become by dropping their finale to a Duke team that had looked lost over the last month and a half of the season.

Duke once again struggled to find any offensive consistency in the first half. The Blue Devils did manage to keep Miami close and only trailed 14 to 13 at the half.

Quarterback Quentin Harris, the much maligned starter, again struggled with accuracy and ball security though proved to be the hero in the end running for a touchdown and throwing for the decisive score in the fourth quarter.

Jalon Calhoun, the recipient of Harris’ touchdown toss caught 3 passes for 82 yards. Running back Deon Jackson scored the go-ahead touchdown prior to that.

Duke’s defense, which has struggled at times with consistency and getting off the field held firm in the second half, keeping Miami out of the end zone and allowing only a field goal in the second half.

Yet as sweet as the victory over the Hurricanes is, it has to leave players, coaches, and fans with a lot of “What ifs” on a very frustrating season. Even if Coach David Cutcliffe won’t let his team use the word.What if Duke hadn’t score so early against Pitt and or their defense could have held on the Panther’s final game-winning drive? What if Duke hadn’t chosen to run what was a horribly executed jump pass late against North Carolina on the goal line?One of those two winnable games and the Blue Devils would be 6-6 and bowl eligible.

Many will look back at this season as one with lots of lost promise but an ultimate failure: At one point the Blue Devils were 4-1 and had decimated Virginia Tech on the road. After that, Duke fell to Pitt, bounced back to beat Georgia Tech and then the wheels came off. It will go down as a lost and disappointing season with a lot of questions Coach Cutcliffe and his staff will have to answer in the offseason.

Duke versus Miami – What to Expect

Duke’s football season is approaching what will hopefully be a merciful end on Saturday at Wallace Wade. The Blue Devils host Miami for what is almost certainly the team’s final game of the season (there is a technical chance that Duke could make a bowl with win and a 5-7 record). So, what can we expect? The odds say a Duke loss and a Miami victory (ESPN gives the Hurricanes a 67%+ chance to win).

Breaking it down in more detail, expect turnovers. Quentin Harris has thrown 11 interceptions and turned the ball over through fumbles on a consistent basis. This is why he has an abysmal quarterback rating of 50.1. Were the turnovers not enough, you should keep an eye out for missed tackles. Michael Carter talked about this recently and 247 sports noted that one of Duke’s best players, Marquis Waters, leads the team with 18.

You can also expect predictable play-calling. I’m not going to rehash those issues here (it’s Thanksgiving and I have to work tomorrow, so I don’t have time to get that angry before bed). There are likely to be a lot of runs up the middle, run-pass-options without Harris keeping the ball and throwing WR screens on first down. Much of this is likely designed to minimize Harris turning the ball over. It hasn’t worked so far, but I suppose it could be worse.

Duke’s defense, assuming it hasn’t already quit, will likely play hard on the first few series and run out of gas. This is the result of the inability of the offense to do much of anything. Drives stall out and the defense has to rush back on the field without any rest. Even when the Blue Devils do gain yards, they rarely put the ball in the end zone. While the kicking teams have come on strong of late, that won’t win a game on its own.

To conclude, expect a Miami win and a six straight loss for Duke.

Season’s End: Comings and Goings

As the season quickly approaches its anticlimactic end, the preparation for next season is underway and that includes some notable departures for the Duke Blue Devils football program.

Aside from the seniors, the Blue Devils announced some unexpected, if not unsurprisingly early defections including wide receiver Scott Bracey and kicker AJ Reed.

They join four other early departures heading out of Durham following what is likely to be the season’s final game Saturday against Miami.

Bracey has battled injury most of his Duke career and finally broke out this season. Despite being healthy and reaping the benefits with greater targets, Bracey is on the way out likely to seek more opportunities with another program as a graduate transfer.

The bad news is Duke is losing a quality, and veteran receiver, which would come in handy with whichever first time starter the Devils opt to go with next season at quarterback. The good news is that despite the struggles of this season, Duke has a solid, young core group of receivers who have shown big play making ability.

Jake Bobo will return for his junior year and can be expected to be a go-to target for the Blue Devils. Bobo was sidelined to start the season but has shown glimpses of what the Duke coaching staff was hoping to see prior to suffering a broken clavicle.

Duke also will return Jalon Calhoun, Eli Pancol, Darrell Harding Jr., and Damond Philyaw-Johnson which should make for a formidable wide receiving core.

Bracey will be missed in Durham, but he hardly is leaving with the cupboard empty for whomever takes over at quarterback.

The departure of kicker AJ Reed, the comeback story of the year for the Blue Devils leaves a few more questions. After coming in with lots of expectations, Reed struggled through his freshman season and went nearly two years before making another field goal.

His reemergence this season stabilized the Duke kicking game which had become a liability since Ross Martin graduated. Duke now must replace Reed, presumably with Jack Driggars who has handled kickoff duties this season.

If Driggars can’t get the job done, then Duke’s kicking game will fall back into limbo.

Duke has plenty of time in the off season with no bowl to prepare for these things, and given the frustrations of this season perhaps some time away will re-energize a program that has suddenly found itself with more questions than answers after several years of steady progress.

Notes: Besides Bracey and Reed the early departures include: Safeties Javon Jackson, Damani Neal, and Antone Williams as well as lineman Liam Smith.

Duke Lost to Wake Forest … Again

It was a rough Saturday night for Duke football fans. While not as bad as last year’s implosion against Wake, it was painful to watch. The game followed a generally predictable script. The defense played well, the offense couldn’t convert opportunities and, despite two outstanding kick returns and a good punt return, Duke lost. Turnovers and miscues doomed the team. The defense couldn’t carry the team and, for the fifth straight game, Duke lost. The obvious question is why.

There is no shortage of answers. Poor play-calling early hurt (why go shotgun on 4th-and-1 instead of lining up under center?) as did a number of fumbles. Quentin Harris continued to miss receivers and took the air out of the team when he threw an interception to the very open Aaron Young. And while the defense played well, the obsession with trying to strip the ball instead of tackling resulted in a lot of yards after contact.

So, what is next for Duke football? The team is now 4-7 after a great 4-2 start with a beautiful dismantling of a Virginia Tech team that is now ranked serving as the lone bright spot of a dismal season. Since that game, Duke has had only two good offensive performances – scoring 30 points in a loss to Pittsburgh and 41 points in a win against Georgia Tech. Outside of that, Duke has put up the following lackluster outputs – 14 points against Virginia, 17 points against Carolina (thanks in large part to that idiotic jump pass call), 7 points against Notre Dame and an inexcusable 6 points against lowly Syracuse. While Duke managed to score 27 against Wake, 14 of those were thanks to kick returns by Damond Philyaw-Johnson. Take away AJ Reed’s field goals and Duke only managed one offensive touchdown.

While a bowl game is still technically possible, this team is rudderless. The offense is an unmitigated disaster. Zac Roper’s calls are predictable and ineffective. Head coach David Cutcliffe’s loyalty is commendable, but the decision to stick with Harris, a senior, instead of playing Chris Katrenick is hard to understand. Katrenick will be at Duke next year. Harris will not. The fact that the team has not ditched the tempo system in favor of a huddle to give the defense a breather is equally frustrating. The play-calling needs to change and should have weeks ago. While the defense has given up a lot of points, this is the best and most talented unit in decades. It’s going to waste. And while Harris was never meant to be the starting quarterback (Daniel Jones left early, Gunnar Holmberg got hurt and Jack Sears decommitted), this team has had chances to win close games. Better coaching and clock management (remember the disastrous end of the first half against Notre Dame) wins some of those games.

The loss to Wake confirmed that the season is lost. While it hadn’t been in doubt for weeks, it was still painful to see. Regardless of what happens against Miami, the real question Duke football has to answer is “What do we do next season”? We’ll see if Duke’s athletic director, Kevin White, asks Cutcliffe that and, if so, what the response is.

Tell us your thoughts in the comments.