2019 Duke Football – More of the Same

What follows below is a recap of the 2019 season with some thoughts on how this season compares to how Duke’s done since 2012. There’s also discussion of what to expect going forward. Read at your own peril.

Duke finished this season 5-7 overall and missed a bowl game. While not being bowl eligible has been the exception since 2012, this team’s overall performance is pretty much classic Duke under David Cutcliffe. Since 2012 (I’m excluding the 2013 campaign for reasons that will become clear), Duke has finished with the following records:

• 6-7;
• 9-4;
• 8-5;
• 4-8 (season ruined by injuries);
• 7-6;
• 8-5 (more injuries); and now
• 5-7.

That’s a total of 6.7 wins a year. That puts the 2019 Duke team 1.7 wins shy of its average. Had Duke gotten to six wins and gone to a low-tier bowl like it did the last two years, the Blue Devils would have finished with a 7-6 record and continued its streak of being an average team. And that was attainable given how the Pitt and UNC games played out. So 2019 isn’t really that far off from what Duke’s average performance. While some of us, myself included, expected more, maybe we shouldn’t have.

But beyond the overall record, let’s look at how Duke’s done in the ACC and how the 2019 season fits with that performance. From 2012 to the present (again, I’m excluding 2013), Duke has posted the following conference records:

• 3-5 (T-5th in Coastal);
• 5-3 (2nd in Coastal);
• 4-4 (T-4th in Coastal);
• 1-7 (T-6th in Coastal);
• 3-5 (T-4th in Coastal);
• 3-5 (6th in Coastal); and
• 3-5 (6th in Coastal).

Notice the trend? Duke has hovered right around the bottom of the Coastal since 2012 and especially over the last 5 years. The 5-3 season is a clear outlier. The last three seasons show the norm – a sub-.500 conference record and a strange 3-5 model of consistency. The 2019 team rose to the challenge of being average. This season isn’t that different from what we’ve seen since 2012. In fact, it’s what we usually get every year.

It should be obvious why I excluded the 2013 season in which the Blue Devils went 10-4 overall and 6-2 in conference. It’s a statistical anomaly. It’s a unicorn. Whatever you want to call it, that season is something that is unlikely to be repeated at Duke (I don’t have enough alcohol to play the “What If” game when it comes to the 2018 team). It lines up with what happened at Ole Miss in 2003 – ten wins, a division title and a level of success that wasn’t replicated at any other point during Cutcliffe’s tenure as head coach.

Can we expect better from Cutcliffe going forward? I doubt it. Cutcliffe has been at Duke since 2008. In 12 years at the helm and 8 since completing his rebuild, the win-loss record speaks for itself. Going back to his time at Ole Miss, Cutcliffe managed one season with a winning conference record, two 3-5 seasons and three straight 4-4 campaigns. The trend is there for everyone to notice. Cutcliffe’s teams play to the middle at best and the bottom at worst. Occasionally a team will overachieve, but those seasons outliers.

While there is a lot of talk about how Duke has improved under Cutcliffe, and that is true, what heights have the Blue Devils reached? Other than a two-season stretch that included an ACC Coastal crown and berths in the Peach (sorry, but that’s what I’m calling it) and Sun Bowls, not much. While Duke has won three bowl games, they beat a 6-6 Indiana team, Northern Illinois and a Rutgers team with an interim coach. Hardly the stuff of football lore. Duke’s best bowl win is against an Indiana team that was 2-6 in the Big Ten. The coach from that team is no longer there. The phrase “Not great, Bob” comes to mind.

I want Duke to be better next season, but I’m not unrealistic. The schedule looks tough (and we’ll have more on that later) and I don’t see how the Blue Devils do much better than they did this season. There are uncertainties at quarterback and in the kicking game. With changes at these critical positions, what can we really expect?

After the 2018 season, I told a friend that Duke was going to range somewhere between 4 wins at worst and 8 wins at best. Unless Duke really shakes up its offensive system, we shouldn’t expect much more than what Duke did this year. While the Blue Devils didn’t make a bowl, they continued the trend of more of the mediocre same.

Let’s hope for some improvement next year and that Coach Cutcliffe takes the team to new heights. Go Duke!