Month: December 2019

Duke’s football season ended unceremoniously last Saturday, but despite the disappointment, the Blue Devils did grab some ACC-Honors.

While no Blue Deivls made it on the first team, they did land on the second team roster. Those included Tight end Noah Gray, Defensive End Victor Dimukeje and Damond Philyaw-Johnson who got All-ACC honors for his special team’s play.

Defensive end Chris Rumph II and linebacker Koby Quansah were named to the third team. Center Jack Wohlabaugh, kicker AJ Reed and punter Austin Parker were named All-ACC Honorable mention.

Gray a junior tight end was quarterback Quentin Harris’ favorite target. He caught 51 passes for 392 yards and 3 touchdowns. Gray has all the size and talent to be an NFL caliber tight end and if he opts to return for his senior year could put up big numbers with the right quarterback.

Dimukeje was a stalwart on the defensive front, recording 8.5 sacks. He will be anchor on the Duke defensive front next season.

Philyaw-Johnson, was a late season sensation after his two kickoff returns for touchdowns against Wake Forest. The sophomore wide receiver didn’t put up much in the way of numbers on offense but proved to be a capable returner with 549 yards on 18 returns and two touchdowns. As a junior he could prove to be an asset as both a receiver and returner.

Rumph and Quansah were big contributors on the defensive side of the ball. Quansah will leave the program but Rumph should return and help provide a formidable defensive front with the likes of Dimukeje next season.

The absence of any players on the first team, speaks more to the inconsistencies of the Blue Devils and their failure to reach a bowl game. While there certainly be some hand wringing in Durham after a disappointing season, the cupboard is far from bare.

What follows below is a recap of the 2019 season with some thoughts on how this season compares to how Duke’s done since 2012. There’s also discussion of what to expect going forward. Read at your own peril.

Duke finished this season 5-7 overall and missed a bowl game. While not being bowl eligible has been the exception since 2012, this team’s overall performance is pretty much classic Duke under David Cutcliffe. Since 2012 (I’m excluding the 2013 campaign for reasons that will become clear), Duke has finished with the following records:

• 6-7;
• 9-4;
• 8-5;
• 4-8 (season ruined by injuries);
• 7-6;
• 8-5 (more injuries); and now
• 5-7.

That’s a total of 6.7 wins a year. That puts the 2019 Duke team 1.7 wins shy of its average. Had Duke gotten to six wins and gone to a low-tier bowl like it did the last two years, the Blue Devils would have finished with a 7-6 record and continued its streak of being an average team. And that was attainable given how the Pitt and UNC games played out. So 2019 isn’t really that far off from what Duke’s average performance. While some of us, myself included, expected more, maybe we shouldn’t have.

But beyond the overall record, let’s look at how Duke’s done in the ACC and how the 2019 season fits with that performance. From 2012 to the present (again, I’m excluding 2013), Duke has posted the following conference records:

• 3-5 (T-5th in Coastal);
• 5-3 (2nd in Coastal);
• 4-4 (T-4th in Coastal);
• 1-7 (T-6th in Coastal);
• 3-5 (T-4th in Coastal);
• 3-5 (6th in Coastal); and
• 3-5 (6th in Coastal).

Notice the trend? Duke has hovered right around the bottom of the Coastal since 2012 and especially over the last 5 years. The 5-3 season is a clear outlier. The last three seasons show the norm – a sub-.500 conference record and a strange 3-5 model of consistency. The 2019 team rose to the challenge of being average. This season isn’t that different from what we’ve seen since 2012. In fact, it’s what we usually get every year.

It should be obvious why I excluded the 2013 season in which the Blue Devils went 10-4 overall and 6-2 in conference. It’s a statistical anomaly. It’s a unicorn. Whatever you want to call it, that season is something that is unlikely to be repeated at Duke (I don’t have enough alcohol to play the “What If” game when it comes to the 2018 team). It lines up with what happened at Ole Miss in 2003 – ten wins, a division title and a level of success that wasn’t replicated at any other point during Cutcliffe’s tenure as head coach.

Can we expect better from Cutcliffe going forward? I doubt it. Cutcliffe has been at Duke since 2008. In 12 years at the helm and 8 since completing his rebuild, the win-loss record speaks for itself. Going back to his time at Ole Miss, Cutcliffe managed one season with a winning conference record, two 3-5 seasons and three straight 4-4 campaigns. The trend is there for everyone to notice. Cutcliffe’s teams play to the middle at best and the bottom at worst. Occasionally a team will overachieve, but those seasons outliers.

While there is a lot of talk about how Duke has improved under Cutcliffe, and that is true, what heights have the Blue Devils reached? Other than a two-season stretch that included an ACC Coastal crown and berths in the Peach (sorry, but that’s what I’m calling it) and Sun Bowls, not much. While Duke has won three bowl games, they beat a 6-6 Indiana team, Northern Illinois and a Rutgers team with an interim coach. Hardly the stuff of football lore. Duke’s best bowl win is against an Indiana team that was 2-6 in the Big Ten. The coach from that team is no longer there. The phrase “Not great, Bob” comes to mind.

I want Duke to be better next season, but I’m not unrealistic. The schedule looks tough (and we’ll have more on that later) and I don’t see how the Blue Devils do much better than they did this season. There are uncertainties at quarterback and in the kicking game. With changes at these critical positions, what can we really expect?

After the 2018 season, I told a friend that Duke was going to range somewhere between 4 wins at worst and 8 wins at best. Unless Duke really shakes up its offensive system, we shouldn’t expect much more than what Duke did this year. While the Blue Devils didn’t make a bowl, they continued the trend of more of the mediocre same.

Let’s hope for some improvement next year and that Coach Cutcliffe takes the team to new heights. Go Duke!