2021 State of the Program – Just Past Midseason Report

This has been a tale of many seasons for Duke. 2021 started poorly, very poorly, with a home loss to Charlotte. While many of us became concerned that loss would cost the Blue Devils bowl eligibility, a three game winning streak gave us hope that this team could squeak out a few wins here and there over the remaining eight and return to the postseason for the first time since 2018. But three straight conference losses have most of us thinking that a bowl just isn’t going to happen. When a team loses by more than 30 to its biggest rival and gets shut out, while giving up almost 50, to another division opponent, you don’t expect to go to a bowl. Add on another blown lead late against Georgia Tech, and there isn’t much reason for optimism.

So, what are we to make of team after seven games? Well, despite the 3-4 record, I’d argue that this team has a solid core. Let’s take a look at the offense first.

If I had to give out grades for each position, the running back gets an A+. The QB gets an A- (the low score is the result of the coaching staff using the QB poorly which I detail below). The offensive line gets a B+. Add in a decent receiving corps (we don’t have breakaway speed, hence the “decent” characterization), and any objective view of the offense has to be generally positive. I realize I didn’t give the receivers a grade. In lieu of letters, this unit gets a “P” for “Pass”. That isn’t a pun – I’m grading the receivers on a pass / no pass scale.

The defense, too, has improved during the season, particularly the defensive line. Despite a propensity to give up a lot of points (and there isn’t a way to sugarcoat that), this is an up-and-coming group that would accomplish more but for the fact that we remain in a 4-2-5 that everyone has figured out at this point. Could we try something different? Cutcliffe has been at the school for more than a decade, so why don’t we have more linebackers? How about we do something with three linemen and more safeties? Why not a 3-3-5? Anyway, I digress. Back to my point – I like a lot of the individual components on the defense, but this unit gives up way too many points. I don’t think it’s because the players are doing anything poorly, it’s just that the defense seems to be where the OL was last year – figuring itself out. We’re a developmental program. It happens.

As for the kicking teams, we have the best punter in the country. We have a good kicker, but Cut mismanaged the situation at UVA and cost us points. Seems like he probably lost the team with that. I don’t know for a fact that he lost the team, but they sure didn’t look the same after the missed field goal. Maybe I’m an idiot, but I can’t understand putting in a left-footed kicker to kick from the left hash. College football is all about emotion and momentum, and Cut flushed both down the toilet with that call.

If you take a look at the preceding paragraphs, you’re probably trying to comprehend how Duke managed to lose two close games to Charlotte and Georgia Tech and get blown out by UNC and UVA. Well, you’re not the only one. This isn’t like the Franks and Roof days where there was a lack of depth and talent. This team has enough talent that it should be able to be average enough to get six wins. So, why does this team look so bad? Why are we continuing to get blown out in conference game after conference game?

The only answer I have is coaching. This staff just isn’t getting much out of the players. I can’t say that the players aren’t trying to win every play or putting in the work because, unlike last year, it looks like they are doing everything they can to get a win each week (UVA game aside). Not counting my complaint about Cut benching Charlie Ham, here are Five Things that remain a problem for this team and have been since last season (if not longer):

1. Penalties. We get penalized way, way too much. My research has us at SEVEN penalties per game. That’s abysmal. And it screams a lack of discipline.
2. A mobile quarterback who isn’t running the ball. Why did we stop running Gunnar after the Kansas game? I get that you don’t want him to get hurt, but the yardage is there. Let Gunnar run the ball a few times. He looked real comfortable against Kansas, and while we can’t afford an injury, playing scared is playing to lose. And, checks notes, that’s sure what the Blue Devils are doing right now. Why is the offensive strategy built around fear? Well, let’s take a look at number three …
3. Not developing quarterback depth. What happened to the days of Renfree, Boone and Connette? Sirk goes down in 2016 and a future first round pick steps in. Since then? We’ve been afraid to run our quarterbacks because we don’t have depth at the position. I’m not sure why Luca Diamont isn’t playing, so I won’t comment on that, but I will say that the quarterback guru has hit a rough patch. For a guy who has produced so many NFL QBs to have so little depth at such a critical position is a damning statement about where the program is at year 14 of the Cutcliffe era.
4. The Blue Devils’ staff isn’t adapting. Twice this season Duke lost leads in the 4th quarter after retaking a lead. Why? Because the staff continues to employ the same defensive scheme that exposes our corners. Opposing teams figured it out and, just like not finding a way to cover the wheel route, our staff hasn’t. It’s the same with the offense. The predictability problems that started to seep in during the Daniel Jones era continue to haunt the program now. Cut has to go outside of his “people” and get someone with some fresh offensive ideas. Otherwise, we better get used to being at the bottom of the Coastal.
5. We have a retention issue. While watching some of the Clemson-Pitt game yesterday, I was surprised to learn that C. J. Spiller and Tajh Boyd are on the Clemson coaching staff. It surprised me because I didn’t know that players who were significant contributors could be a part of your team’s staff. Can someone explain to me why all of the players who played for Cutcliffe who now coach aren’t dressing up for the Blue Devils on Saturdays? Why don’t we have Anthony Boone, Takoby Cofield, Carlos Wray and Max McCaffrey on staff? You don’t think Braxton Deaver or David Reeves would come coach the tight ends? Those are guys who were key contributors and know what it takes to win in Durham. Are you telling me they wouldn’t help recruiting and player development?

To sum it up, I’m giving the team a C-. I expected struggles this season and didn’t expect more than 4 wins, so I won’t give them a D or an F. That’s just not fair because this was going to be a tough season. The conference schedule is brutal and we had to expect a down year.

That said, I didn’t expect the staff to find a way to give away two wins. I also thought that this group would play better against UNC and UVA. But those two games made one thing clear – the program is heading in the wrong direction. Duke isn’t suffering the kind of losses Virginia Tech has had this year – six points to West Virginia, three points to Notre Dame and five points to Syracuse. Those types of loses (which are what I expected from the Blue Devils) would tell me the team would learn from the close losses and start winning games next season. But we’re a long, long way from hope for the 2022 season. And it all goes back to coaching.

Let me know what you think in the comments or on Twitter.

Go Duke!