When I was a kid, I watched a lot of Duke football games with my dad. The games unfolded in the same general pattern – after making you believe victory is possible, the Blue Devils lost after a series of mistakes, miscues and, to top it off, an occasional bad coaching decision or two. Basically, the team would hang around long enough to get your hopes up and then break your heat. I bring this up because, after watching Duke lose to Pitt by a score of 28 to 26 (not a typo), I felt like I had relived some painful déjà vu.
Now, I can’t really explain why these painful losses keep happening to us. Maybe it is nothing more complicated than that the football gods won’t let us beat Pitt. And it isn’t like the Blue Devils didn’t have opportunities on Saturday. Multiple Duke mistakes and miscues gave Pitt chances to stay in a game it had no business winning. And boy did the Panthers take advantage of those opportunities. Porter Wilson shanked punt which led to a field goal. Jalon Calhoun mishandled a punt which led to an easy Pitt touchdown. Jordan Waters’ fumble led to a scoop-and-score. Jontavis Robertson dropped a touchdown pass. It wasn’t pretty. Well, it wasn’t pretty for the Blue Devils. If you’re a Panthers fan, it was pretty.
But a lot of what I just described happens in games (and frequently). It happens in cold weather games to Southern teams. It happens in games where flocks of pigeons descend on the field for some strange reason. (Which would have been on brand had the game been broadcast on Bally Sports.) These kids are youngsters, not professionals and, like all of us, make mistakes. What shouldn’t happen, however, is a coaching staff compounding those errors with a string of their own mistakes and questionable decisions. And we sure a lot of that on Saturday.
While Coach Elko has generally pushed all the right buttons this season, there have been some things he’s done that don’t make a lot of sense. On Saturday, not having Hagans return punts is the first one. Had Coach Elko and the staff made the switch after the Georgia Tech game, we probably don’t see the mistake that gave Pitt a touchdown. That may have altered enough of the game such that we don’t see the Waters fumble or the Robertson drop. The shanked punt can happen, so there’s no point getting upset about that. But, again, what we’ve gone over can be put in the basket of things that happen. As a team you have to overcome them.
And it sure seemed like Duke was about to do it on Saturday. Despite being down 28-14, Riley Leonard and Jordan Moore took the Blue Devils down the field and got it within eight. Then Coach Elko decided to go for two (going for two is hereafter referred to as “conversion”), the offense couldn’t convert and it got worse from there. Down 28-20, the defense, which played great all day, held and got the offense the ball back. A slow, perhaps too slow, and methodical drive resulted in a Duke touchdown and another conversion attempt. The following Philly Special looked, well, special, and the Blue Devils left Pittsburgh with a two-point loss.
Here’s my problem with the two conversion attempts. I’ll qualify my criticism by acknowledging that I’m not a mathematician, but if the team hadn’t gotten greedy and taken the PAT attempts that would be … Hold on … One plus one is … Let me double-check my math … Two! It’s two! Those two points force overtime and Duke gets a chance to keep winning after regulation. I’m sure a lot of you, and I heard you on Twitter, think the analytics say to go for the conversion on the first attempt down 28-20. Here is why that is wrong. You are certainly entitled to your own opinion on this, but just understand that you’re wrong. Absolutely wrong. Let me explain why.
Conversion attempts aren’t easy. It’s a harder play to score on and it’s higher risk than a PAT. If you don’t get it on the first attempt down eight, you have to go for it again. That’s two high-risk, albeit high-reward, plays. The chances of getting a total of 14 points from two TDs and two conversions are lower than just taking the PATs. This is why my general rule is that you don’t go for the conversion until you absolutely have to. The risk is just too high (as is the downside. Plus the success rate isn’t 100% as is more fully discussed below).
But let’s say you don’t agree with that and you still cite to some ESPN article about NFL teams going for two in the same situation. Fine, but here’s what you’re not getting – WE DON’T HAVE A ROSTER OF NFL PLAYERS. There are also percentage chances of converting which aren’t 100% because teams like the Blue Devils are the ones who, historically, don’t seem to convert in those situations. What you have to remember is that, for whatever reason, teams like Duke aren’t the ones who win the analytics in key situations like the ones on Saturday (sort of like what happened against the Yellow Jackets last year when we went with the wrong defense at the end, gave up the touchdown and lost the game). Sometimes you just need to take the points. We’re not Alabama, folks. We can’t always get the conversion we need. Which is why I say … Just. Take. The Points.
Now, one counter to my otherwise flawless argument is that if Coach Elko had gone for two at 28-27 (assuming he initially went for the PAT at 28-20 to get it within seven), we wouldn’t really complain about him being aggressive and going for the win and the end by calling for a conversion. Let me explain why that is a complete non sequitur.
First, that’s not what happened on Saturday because Duke was down 28-26 at the time and needed the conversion to tie, not win. Second, if Coach Elko wanted to avoid overtime, I get it. The overtime system, with its short field and mandatory conversion rules as the game goes on is pretty stupid. Overtime isn’t a real replica of college football and I get why a coach would want to win in regulation. That said, this discussion isn’t relevant or material at all what to we saw unfold on Saturday because that isn’t what fracking happened. The conversion attempt at the end of the game would have forced the team into overtime and not won the game. So, we can save the debate about what may have happened had the score been different for another time.
So, you can shut it with your analytical garbage. None of you, with the exception of Charlie Gelman, understand the math well enough to counter any of my argument. Further, games aren’t determined by P values, they are determined by the number of pigeons on the field. Coach Elko just got it wrong Saturday.
All that said, I have to admit it was rather fitting to watch the Blue Devils lose a game that they should have won on Saturday. It made me feel like I was back home and reminded me of all the time I used to spend with Dad back when I was a kid. And I’m not being sarcastic here – I mean what I say. I really felt like I was in junior high and high school again spending time with the old man. It was nice, albeit in a sad way. So, outcome notwithstanding, I really enjoyed watching another game with Dad. I just hate that the defense, with its two interceptions and gutsy play, had its efforts wasted. Had the offense and kicking teams not dug a big hole, this could have been a different game. The defense played real, real well. The coaching staff just didn’t rise to the moment.
But that’s okay. No one is perfect. We all make mistakes. Let’s just hope Coach Elko, et al., learn from this and get the team ready for Wake Forest.
That’s it for the game recap. Let me know what you think about what I think in the comments, on Twitter, or on Reddit. And drop a line for Dad. He’d love to hear from you guys!
As always, Go Duke!
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