BullCityCoordinators

2019 Duke Football – More of the Same

What follows below is a recap of the 2019 season with some thoughts on how this season compares to how Duke’s done since 2012. There’s also discussion of what to expect going forward. Read at your own peril.

Duke finished this season 5-7 overall and missed a bowl game. While not being bowl eligible has been the exception since 2012, this team’s overall performance is pretty much classic Duke under David Cutcliffe. Since 2012 (I’m excluding the 2013 campaign for reasons that will become clear), Duke has finished with the following records:

6-7;
9-4;
8-5;
4-8 (season ruined by injuries);
7-6;
8-5 (more injuries); and now
5-7.

That’s a total of 6.7 wins a year. That puts the 2019 Duke team 1.7 wins shy of its average. Had Duke gotten to six wins and gone to a low-tier bowl like it did the last two years, the Blue Devils would have finished with a 7-6 record and continued its streak of being an average team. And that was attainable given how the Pitt and UNC games played out. So 2019 isn’t really that far off from what Duke’s average performance. While some of us, myself included, expected more, maybe we shouldn’t have.

But beyond the overall record, let’s look at how Duke’s done in the ACC and how the 2019 season fits with that performance. From 2012 to the present (again, I’m excluding 2013), Duke has posted the following conference records:

3-5 (T-5th in Coastal);
5-3 (2nd in Coastal);
4-4 (T-4th in Coastal);
1-7 (T-6th in Coastal);
3-5 (T-4th in Coastal);
3-5 (6th in Coastal); and
3-5 (6th in Coastal).

Notice the trend? Duke has hovered right around the bottom of the Coastal since 2012 and especially over the last 5 years. The 5-3 season is a clear outlier. The last three seasons show the norm – a sub-.500 conference record and a strange 3-5 model of consistency. The 2019 team rose to the challenge of being average. This season isn’t that different from what we’ve seen since 2012. In fact, it’s what we usually get every year.

It should be obvious why I excluded the 2013 season in which the Blue Devils went 10-4 overall and 6-2 in conference. It’s a statistical anomaly. It’s a unicorn. Whatever you want to call it, that season is something that is unlikely to be repeated at Duke (I don’t have enough alcohol to play the “What If” game when it comes to the 2018 team). It lines up with what happened at Ole Miss in 2003 – ten wins, a division title and a level of success that wasn’t replicated at any other point during Cutcliffe’s tenure as head coach.

Can we expect better from Cutcliffe going forward? I doubt it. Cutcliffe has been at Duke since 2008. In 12 years at the helm and 8 since completing his rebuild, the win-loss record speaks for itself. Going back to his time at Ole Miss, Cutcliffe managed one season with a winning conference record, two 3-5 seasons and three straight 4-4 campaigns. The trend is there for everyone to notice. Cutcliffe’s teams play to the middle at best and the bottom at worst. Occasionally a team will overachieve, but those seasons outliers.

While there is a lot of talk about how Duke has improved under Cutcliffe, and that is true, what heights have the Blue Devils reached? Other than a two-season stretch that included an ACC Coastal crown and berths in the Peach (sorry, but that’s what I’m calling it) and Sun Bowls, not much. While Duke has won three bowl games, they beat a 6-6 Indiana team, Northern Illinois and a Rutgers team with an interim coach. Hardly the stuff of football lore. Duke’s best bowl win is against an Indiana team that was 2-6 in the Big Ten. The coach from that team is no longer there. The phrase “Not great, Bob” comes to mind.

I want Duke to be better next season, but I’m not unrealistic. The schedule looks tough (and we’ll have more on that later) and I don’t see how the Blue Devils do much better than they did this season. There are uncertainties at quarterback and in the kicking game. With changes at these critical positions, what can we really expect?

After the 2018 season, I told a friend that Duke was going to range somewhere between 4 wins at worst and 8 wins at best. Unless Duke really shakes up its offensive system, we shouldn’t expect much more than what Duke did this year. While the Blue Devils didn’t make a bowl, they continued the trend of more of the mediocre same.

Let’s hope for some improvement next year and that Coach Cutcliffe takes the team to new heights. Go Duke!

Duke versus Miami – What to Expect

Duke’s football season is approaching what will hopefully be a merciful end on Saturday at Wallace Wade. The Blue Devils host Miami for what is almost certainly the team’s final game of the season (there is a technical chance that Duke could make a bowl with win and a 5-7 record). So, what can we expect? The odds say a Duke loss and a Miami victory (ESPN gives the Hurricanes a 67%+ chance to win).

Breaking it down in more detail, expect turnovers. Quentin Harris has thrown 11 interceptions and turned the ball over through fumbles on a consistent basis. This is why he has an abysmal quarterback rating of 50.1. Were the turnovers not enough, you should keep an eye out for missed tackles. Michael Carter talked about this recently and 247 sports noted that one of Duke’s best players, Marquis Waters, leads the team with 18.

You can also expect predictable play-calling. I’m not going to rehash those issues here (it’s Thanksgiving and I have to work tomorrow, so I don’t have time to get that angry before bed). There are likely to be a lot of runs up the middle, run-pass-options without Harris keeping the ball and throwing WR screens on first down. Much of this is likely designed to minimize Harris turning the ball over. It hasn’t worked so far, but I suppose it could be worse.

Duke’s defense, assuming it hasn’t already quit, will likely play hard on the first few series and run out of gas. This is the result of the inability of the offense to do much of anything. Drives stall out and the defense has to rush back on the field without any rest. Even when the Blue Devils do gain yards, they rarely put the ball in the end zone. While the kicking teams have come on strong of late, that won’t win a game on its own.

To conclude, expect a Miami win and a six straight loss for Duke.

Duke Lost to Wake Forest … Again

It was a rough Saturday night for Duke football fans. While not as bad as last year’s implosion against Wake, it was painful to watch. The game followed a generally predictable script. The defense played well, the offense couldn’t convert opportunities and, despite two outstanding kick returns and a good punt return, Duke lost. Turnovers and miscues doomed the team. The defense couldn’t carry the team and, for the fifth straight game, Duke lost. The obvious question is why.

There is no shortage of answers. Poor play-calling early hurt (why go shotgun on 4th-and-1 instead of lining up under center?) as did a number of fumbles. Quentin Harris continued to miss receivers and took the air out of the team when he threw an interception to the very open Aaron Young. And while the defense played well, the obsession with trying to strip the ball instead of tackling resulted in a lot of yards after contact.

So, what is next for Duke football? The team is now 4-7 after a great 4-2 start with a beautiful dismantling of a Virginia Tech team that is now ranked serving as the lone bright spot of a dismal season. Since that game, Duke has had only two good offensive performances – scoring 30 points in a loss to Pittsburgh and 41 points in a win against Georgia Tech. Outside of that, Duke has put up the following lackluster outputs – 14 points against Virginia, 17 points against Carolina (thanks in large part to that idiotic jump pass call), 7 points against Notre Dame and an inexcusable 6 points against lowly Syracuse. While Duke managed to score 27 against Wake, 14 of those were thanks to kick returns by Damond Philyaw-Johnson. Take away AJ Reed’s field goals and Duke only managed one offensive touchdown.

While a bowl game is still technically possible, this team is rudderless. The offense is an unmitigated disaster. Zac Roper’s calls are predictable and ineffective. Head coach David Cutcliffe’s loyalty is commendable, but the decision to stick with Harris, a senior, instead of playing Chris Katrenick is hard to understand. Katrenick will be at Duke next year. Harris will not. The fact that the team has not ditched the tempo system in favor of a huddle to give the defense a breather is equally frustrating. The play-calling needs to change and should have weeks ago. While the defense has given up a lot of points, this is the best and most talented unit in decades. It’s going to waste. And while Harris was never meant to be the starting quarterback (Daniel Jones left early, Gunnar Holmberg got hurt and Jack Sears decommitted), this team has had chances to win close games. Better coaching and clock management (remember the disastrous end of the first half against Notre Dame) wins some of those games.

The loss to Wake confirmed that the season is lost. While it hadn’t been in doubt for weeks, it was still painful to see. Regardless of what happens against Miami, the real question Duke football has to answer is “What do we do next season”? We’ll see if Duke’s athletic director, Kevin White, asks Cutcliffe that and, if so, what the response is.

Tell us your thoughts in the comments.