BullCityCoordinators

Recruiting Update – Transfer Portal Madness

You’ve all heard by now that Marquis Waters is leaving Duke. Despite losing a big play maker, the Blue Devils picked up offensive lineman Kade Parmelly and defensive tackle Ja’Mion Franklin (who comes in from Notre Dame) through the portal.

Marquis Waters, Duke, Safety — Marquis Waters was one heck of a player. I’m going to miss him.

But, more important than those changes to the roster, it was just announced that Chase Brice, who transferred in to play quarterback last season, is transferring out to play elsewhere next season. That leaves Gunnar Holmberg and Luca Diamont on the QB depth chart. Looks like we’ll finally get to see a mobile quarterback run a mobile quarterback offense.

Duke QB Gunnar Holmberg back healthy after missing last year — We may finally get to see Gunnar Holmberg next season.

While Brice leaving is a sigh of relief for most of us as we’d all gotten tired of him turning the ball over, it’s probably a bad look for the program. All the hype of bringing in a major recruit like Brice is dashed against the rocks of reality. When the can’t miss prospect crashed and burned so badly, it doesn’t say a lot for the staff’s ability to recruit and develop talent.

I think this means that Holmberg is more likely to stay. Let’s hope he lives up to the hype. Go Duke!

2020 Game Recap – History Continued to Repeat Itself

By now you all know that Duke lost. Badly. Again. And the defense gave up more than 50 points for the third time in the last four games. At least the offense scored this time – 35 points. But that makes the game look a little closer than it was. The Seminoles ripped off 28 straight, notching big play after big play and methodically putting up first downs, yards and points.

And that was just the first quarter.

After that, Coach Cutcliffe called the team together on the sideline and actually, you know, coached. It worked – briefly. The Blue Devils dialed up three straight touchdowns thanks to big plays from Eli Pancol, Mataeo Durant and Deon Jackson. Chase Brice even threw some nice passes.

It really looked like Duke had a chance. With the first half winding down, the Blue Devils put a nice drive together, had a chance to score and then … Well, this team did what it normally does. It committed three holding penalties on consecutive plays and went from a first and 10 to a 1st and, you’re going to read that right, 40. You know, just a casual 40 yards to go on four downs. That drive ended in classic Duke fashion – 3rd and 40, a timeout left and a kneel down. Yep – Cutcliffe dialed up taking a knee on third down to run out the clock in lieu of throwing over the middle and trying to make something happen. Which made sense because it isn’t like the Blue Devils would start the second half with the ball or anything. Wait, hold on, I’m getting a call. “What’s that you say? Duke was starting the second half with the ball? So, they had a chance to score at the end of the first half and go into the final thirty minutes with possession and they chose not to? Are you sure that’s what happened? Because that can’t be right. No coach in his right mind would do that.”

But it did happen. It totally happened. I watched it. And I’m still pissed off about it.

The second half was a giant cluster of a disaster of a nightmare. Brice came out of the game, Luca Diamont came in (Gunnar Holmberg didn’t make the trip due to injury) and the wheels fell off. Brice tried to scramble to get a first down, he got hurt, fumbled, turned the ball over and then Florida State scored on the next play. Brice went to the locker room with what looked like a banged up shoulder. Taking advantage of the shift in momentum, the Seminoles scored touchdown after touchdown after touchdown. The Blue Devils didn’t entirely quit and scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, one of which came on a nifty pass from Jackson, but it was too little too late.

The game ended in a familiar, and painful, way. A blow out.

We could talk about how Duke shouldn’t have lost the game this badly. Florida State is bad this season and hadn’t played in weeks. Despite that, the Blue Devils couldn’t take advantage and got beat. By a bad team? The question is why did this happen. Or, more accurately, why did it happen again?

I think it goes back to Cutcliffe’s mismanagement of the quarterback situation. Last season Cutcliffe stuck with Quentin Harris when he played poorly, not Chase Brice poorly, but still poorly. Instead of pulling Harris, giving him a few series on the sidelines to get his head straight, Cutcliffe kept running him out there. The result was a disastrous string of losses to Virginia, UNC, Notre Dame, Syracuse and Wake Forest (the Wake game was “close” thanks to DPJ, not the rest of the offense). In fact, the team started to look bad in the second half of the Georgia Tech game that year (I know, I was there. They looked off in the second half which I erroneously attributed at the time to scaling the offense back while up big. I was wrong, but three points in the second half should have been a sign.).

Cutcliffe had Chris Katrenick to turn to, a veteran who had been in Durham for a number of years and understood the offense. Instead of turning to a veteran with a throrough understanding of the scheme the team ran, he stuck with his guy. And the result was a 5-7 season and a jump pass away from going to a bowl game.

Imagine if Cutcliffe had used Katrenick last season. Odds are Katrenick doesn’t opt out this year and doesn’t decide to transfer. I don’t know about you, but I would have very much liked to have seen a veteran quarterback step in for Brice this season. And not having Katrenick as a backup became problematic for this team last night. Without Holmberg, Duke didn’t have a quarterback with experience to turn to. And while Diamont played well at times, his inexperience got the better of him early. His first several throws looked like screwballs and he threw a bad pick while trying to make something out of nothing. While he settled down and got comfortable, and actually looked good running, I think most all fans would have much preferred to see what Katrenick could have done. Being a senior, don’t you think that the team would have turned to him for leadership and followed his direction? I think so. It could have been one heck of a story for Katrenick to finish his time in Durham.

But we didn’t get that opportunity because the Quarterback Guru mismanaged this situation. Badly.

There were other reasons that this team lost to Florida State. Multiple turnovers, giving up big plays on defense and a litany of penalties (everyone drink – Chris Rumph jumped offsides!). In season 13, this team looked like it had never been held accountable. No one got benched for making mistakes. Nothing was done to correct, during the game, the penalties, the turnovers or the lapses in coverage. Brice keeping the starting job is the perfect example. I gave up counting how many times he turned the ball over and I don’t want to come across as kicking a guy who got injured.

The question before us now is whether this will change for the better next season. I have to doubt it. This was season thirteen and it sure seems like Cutcliffe lost control of the program. (I have heard similar things from multiple sources.) While we can hope that he will right the ship and instill a sense of discipline, I wouldn’t expect it. Since the Georgia Tech game, Duke has lost by 20 or more points a total of 8 times (3 in 2019 and 5 times in 2020). The Blue Devils have a total of 2 conference wins in that time.

This program is trending in the wrong direction. There’s no denying it. This is going to take a monumental amount of work and effort. The offense needs to change and accountability needs to be restored. Can Cut do it? I sure hope so. But I have my doubts.

We’ll see what happens next season. Go Duke!

2020 Game Previews – Let It End

Duke will (mercifully) finish its football season this Saturday in Tallahassee. If the Blue Devils’ history against the Seminoles is any guide, Duke will lose. If this season, particularly the last three games, is any guide, the Blue Devils will lose. Badly. I thought about doing an analysis of FSU’s relative struggles this year, Duke’s anemic offense and now horrendous defense (you can’t say you have a good defense when you give up 48 or more in three straight games) and how two pretty lousy teams will match up against one another.

But what’s the point of that? It presupposes that the Blue Devils will actually show up and put together a complete game in all three phases. When was the last time that this team did that? Charlotte? How can a team play well when the offense is insistent on turning the ball over at every opportunity. Let’s be honest, all indications are that this team quit, gave up, mailed it in (it’s hard to blame them when the head coach doesn’t demand accountability). Other than the punter and the kicker, this team is just plain awful.

Instead of analyzing how two bad teams will match up against each other, I am going to put this team’s final record, win or lose, in historical perspective.

If Duke loses on Saturday, it will finish the season with 2 wins. You read that right. 2 wins. That would be the fewest under Coach Cutcliffe’s tenure and Duke’s worst season since 2007 when Ted Roof was the head coach. The Blue Devils finished that year 1-11 and Duke got a new coach. A 2-9 finish would be the same record Roof put together in 2004, his first full season at the helm, and the same as Fred Goldsmith’s 1997 team, his second-to-last in Durham.

If the Blue Devils somehow win the game, the team would finish 3-8 – one win fewer than Cutcliffe’s first year and practically the same result his teams put together in 2010 and 2011. 3-8 would be the same record Carl Franks amassed in 1999 during his first season as head coach. Goldsmith had the same record in 1995, his second season on the Wallace Wade sidelines. Barry Wilson put together a 2 win season in 1992 and a 3 win season in 1993. He was then asked to leave. So, regardless of whether Duke wins or loses the game, the result is a season that is in line with when the program was at its absolute worst. Like I’ve been saying all year – we’ve come full circle.

Win or lose, there is no disputing the fact that the program has regressed. Cutcliffe supposedly raised the bar in Durham. More is expected of the Blue Devils in football. And, if that is true, then Cutcliffe has to be held accountable.

Oh, and before I conclude, I am going to predict a Seminoles victory. Sorry, but I don’t see it happening any other way.

2020 Game Recap – It Got Worse (Somehow)

Duke lost again. This wasn’t really a surprise to anyone given that the Blue Devils hosted a top ten in Miami and had to play at night. In Durham. Against the Hurricanes. Yeah, fate pretty well told us what to expect.

While we all were mentally prepared for a loss, we weren’t prepared for one of the ugliest losses in Coach Cutcliffe’s history — a 48-0 walloping at the hand of a team that Duke beat last season (this is the second straight game that Cutcliffe got bested by a team he beat last year and the first shutout since 2008, Cutcliffe’s first year). It was ugly and we knew it was going to be rough when the Blue Devils forced a turnover on Miami’s first possession that led to a stellar negative 4 yards of offense from Brice and Company.

This game had everything we have come to expect – 5 turnovers, no passing touchdowns and an anemic offense. Chase Brice was a stellar 20/25 for under 100 yards (yes, you read that right). The OL got blown up all night and you couldn’t help but think it would have helped to have had a mobile QB who could at least try and make plays with his legs. But I’ve gone through all of this before and I won’t do it again.

Here’s what I will note – the media is starting to point out just how bad it is in Durham in game recaps as opposed to random tweets. The News & Observer correctly pointed out that Duke isn’t playing competitive football and that the team is losing in ways similar to the pre-Cutcliffe era. Even The Chronicle referred to the game as depressing. Everyone is, finally, staring the cold, painful truth in the face – this is a bad football team. And it has been bad since last season (if not longer). Going back to last season, this is the latest in a string of blowouts (which we’ve gone over before and I won’t do it again). While Cutcliffe may preach patience and comprehensive, detail-oriented reviews of everything the team is doing, do any of you think that he can turn this around?

I don’t. And it doesn’t sound like the professional media does, either.

2020 Transfer Portal Update – Chris Katrenick Out

What we all suspected when Chris Katrenick opted out is now official — Katrenick is entering the transfer portal and leaving Durham.

Katrenick’s announcement on his Twitter account.

Katrenick rode the bench for most all of his time at Duke. That was understandable when Daniel Jones was under center, but it made little to no sense last year when Quentin Harris looked confused and needed a break. While Katrenick may not have taken us to the ACC tournament, I have to think that he could have squeaked out one win and gotten the Blue Devils to a bowl last year.

What do we make of this? First, we appreciate Katrenick’s time at Duke and wish him the best. Second, this should put more pressure on Coach Cutcliffe to give Gunnar Holmberg a shot next week as he has been shown what happens when players don’t get to play. With this year not counting against eligibility, Holmberg has relatively little to lose from transferring. That is something this team cannot afford to have happen as it would leave Chase Brice, Luca Diamont and Gavin Spurrier as the only quarterbacks. I like Diamont and think he can do well in this offense, but I would prefer to have a quarterback depth chart of Holmberg, Diamont, Spurrier and then Brice. Holmberg showed some flashes of ability in limited time (that beautiful TD that got called back is the perfect example) and it is time for him to get a real opportunity under center. Cutcliffe needs to stop being so stubborn. The time is now.

2020 Game Recap – Duke Loses (Badly) in Atlanta

I don't know what I expected... - Misc - quickmeme — This game was hideous.

Duke went into Atlanta with an extra bye week after the game against Wake Forest was canceled. At 2-5, you would hope this team would take the time to improve, kick some bad habits, make needed changes and get a win. Or at least play 60 minutes of solid football. Or generally not do what the Blue Devils have done all season.

But we’re talking about a David Cutcliffe coached team, so none of that happened. Duke got absolutely throttled by the Yellow Jackets, losing by a final score of 56-33. That’s two straight games where the Blue Devils have given up 50 plus. By any measure, that’s terrible.

What makes this worse is that despite dropped passes, penalties by “leaders” like Chris Rumph (his lack of discipline has been an issue all season) and turnovers, it was a two-point game at the half. Duke went into the locker room down 28-26 with possession to start the third quarter. Cutcliffe said that the team was getting ready to play its best half of football and, if he meant the upcoming half as opposed to at some point in next week’s game against Florida State, I’d hate to see what the worst half of football looks like. The turnovers continued, the dropped passes continued and Tech outscored the Blue Devils 28-7 (that’s not a typo) over the final thirty en route to an absolute whooping. When the final whistle blew, it put an end to a night in which Duke had turned the ball over five times over the course of two halves, four fumbles and one pick. That, I believe, is a total of 30 for the year.

What was particularly frustrating about this loss was that Cutcliffe promised personnel changes. He said things would be done differently. But when the game started, Brice stayed under center and the same sloppiness that has been the Duke trademark these last two years continued. DPJ looked confused on a kick return, may have liked an Instagram post during halftime, there were offside penalties and Gunnar Holmberg barely got to play. Despite what we were told to expect, we got more of the same. And, as expected, the result was another loss.

That doesn’t seem like accountability. In fact, the overall poor level of execution strongly suggests that Cutcliffe has lost control of the locker room. His stubborn and foolish loyalty to Chase Brice, who finished the night with multiple turnovers, sure makes it seem like Cutcliffe has lost his ability to assess player performance and make correct judgments. I don’t know what he sees from Brice that the rest of us don’t see. I would love to hear someone give a defense of Brice and a reason why he should keep playing this year. I’ve said multiple times that Gunnar may well not be the answer and that putting him in may not fix all the Blue Devils’ problems (and those problems are legion), but he can’t do any worse than Brice. And we need to know if he’s the guy to lead this team. And despite his one turnover, he did look good in the limited time he had. A long touchdown pass was negated by a, you guessed it, penalty.

But I’ve said enough about Holmberg and won’t continue to raise those concerns here. What is equally concerning is the continued lack of discipline, of focus and of good situational football. Between players like DPJ and Rumph getting penalty after penalty this season, it should worry all of us that older players with lots of game experience make inexcusable mistakes. Since 2018, Duke has repeatedly gotten blown out by teams (I’ve recounted those before and won’t do so again here). The fact that these continue this late in the season means that the coaches aren’t addressing them or the players don’t care. The change in score in the second half also suggests that Cutcliffe and his staff aren’t making adjustments. It also looks like the rest of the ACC has moved ahead of the program.

Perhaps all of the above is why veteran reporters are raising the issue of Cutcliffe retiring at the end of the year. I hope he does. Because if he doesn’t, it’s just going to get worse. Last night isn’t an aberration. It’s par for the course.

2020 Game Previews – Duke v. GA Tech

There are two games left in this long and miserable season. For reasons that aren’t particularly clear to me, Duke will play Georgia Tech in a prime time game this Saturday. Kickoff is slated for 7pm. At 2-5, there isn’t much to expect from the Blue Devils. We’ve written extensively about the sloppy play all season, so I won’t rehash that here. All I can hope for is that something will change on Saturday.

Will it?

Duke football looking for signature victory in disappointing season — Coach Cutcliffe speaks to his quarterbacks.

If Duke plays Chase Brice, I have to say no. In doing my prep for this article, I was surprised to see how many close games the Blue Devils had this season. NCSU, VT and Notre Dame were all two possession games. (Don’t forget that Virginia got away late.) If you cut out the turnovers (by which I mean, don’t play Chase Brice), Duke may well have gone 2-1 in those games. That would give the Blue Devils 4 wins and would make it a much more palatable season. If this team were hovering at .500 in the time of COVID-19, none of us would complain. (Well, we might, but we shouldn’t.)

But wins haven’t been forthcoming because the quarterback turns the ball over too much. Since you can’t expect Brice to stop doing that this late in the year, Cutcliffe will need to start Gunnar Holmberg if he wants to get a win. Maybe Holmberg isn’t the answer. Maybe he won’t turn things around. While we don’t yet know what he’s capable of, we do know what Brice is capable of. And that’s why I think we all agree it’s time for a change. Let’s see what Holmberg can do before the season is over so we can plan for next season.

But even with Holmberg in, can Duke beat Georgia Tech?

Despite my generally negativity, I think there’s a decent shot. The Blue Devils got a win last year (I was there, it was a fun game) at home. And recent history has been kind to Duke. Since 2015, the Blue Devils are 4-1 against the Yellow Jackets. This year, Georgia Tech has struggled to a 2-5 record, lost three straight and haven’t played since October as a result of games against Pitt and Miami being postponed. The Yellow Jackets also lost to Syracuse which is Duke’s lone conference win of the season.

So, a win is possible. But will the Blue Devils do it? If Holmberg plays, I think so. He gets rid of the ball quickly, throws the ball better and can run. That gives the offense an opportunity to click and get rolling. However, if we see more Brice, this game is a loss, no question about it. He’ll turn the ball over, make mistakes and cost us the game.

We’ll have to see what Cutcliffe decides to do. I can’t see why he would play Brice again, but there’s a lot that he’s done this year that hasn’t made sense to me. Let’s see what happens Saturday night. Regardless, Go Duke!

2020 Game Recap – That Was Ugly

Duke lost to UNC; you already know that. Fortunately for my mental health, I missed the radio and television broadcasts because of a kid’s soccer game and an end of the season celebration. What did I miss? A defense that gave up 21 points in each of the first two quarters. Ugly would be a kind word. Pathetic would be more accurate. Disgrace is probably the best description.

Time is a flat circle â Steemit — Little known fact – True Detective was about Duke football’s cyclical self-destruction.

The final score was a horrendous 56-24. Last season, a less-talented Blue Devils unit came very, very close to beating UNC. The change in the score means that one team is headed in the right direction. And that team does not play home games in Durham. After the game Coach Cutcliffe finally acknowledged that things are moving in the wrong direction. He specifically stated that the program is at a low point. It’s good to know that he’s finally seeing what everyone else has seen since last year’s UNC game.

While I was lucky not to have seen this utter disaster, the one constant from the folks I followed online to get updates about the game was that the team looked flat, disinterested and clearly didn’t care. I think Cutcliffe got the message the team was sending when he pulled Chase Brice and gave Gunnar Holmberg a chance (I am speculating that the team quit on Brice. I don’t know that, but the statements from former players on Twitter support this assessment).

Why it took Cutcliffe so long to make a QB change is beyond me. I was concerned that a guy who could barely complete a pass against Charlotte would struggle against UNC. I was right; and I’m not at all happy about it. Why not play Gunnar earlier? Why not give him an opportunity? Brice hasn’t played a good game yet. Why throw him out there again and again? Chris Katrenick already left. Do you want to risk another QB leaving?

Holmberg managed to play well despite being put in a terrible situation. If he doesn’t get the start next week, Cutcliffe should be fired. You know what you’ll get from Brice and it isn’t good. In fact, it’s terrible. Give Gunnar a chance to show what he can do. It’s long past time. He looks better at everything – poise, accuracy, running and decision-making. Make. The. Change.

Moving on …

In looking at things from a distance, a couple things become clear. The first thing is that the ACC has moved ahead of Duke. Wake is better, NCSU is better and now UNC is better. A lot better. The second thing is that this team is sloppy, undisciplined and doesn’t get up for each game. The final, and most important, thing is that without cupcakes on the schedule, Cutcliffe is being exposed. Lacking 3 or 4 guaranteed wins, we’re seeing just how bad the Blue Devils really are. Duke can’t compete with the better or even the middle of the pack teams. Every Syracuse wasn’t an easy win. We’re stuck in neutral or trying to pop the clutch. Whichever metaphor you use, there isn’t much progress.

Can the Blue Devils improve? I don’t know. I think that Holmberg may be able to turn this team around. He’s mobile, more accurate and I get the sense that the team wants him to play. I also get a sense that he’s going to make the most of this opportunity. If he plays well, he is the clear number one and Brice should be sent back to Clemson. Make Diamont the number two. If Gunnar doesn’t play well, no one will blame him. It’s so late in the season that he can’t be blamed for struggling. This is a good situation for him. Let’s hope he makes the most of it.

The final thing I want to say is that the last two seasons, starting at last year’s UNC debacle, has seen Duke come full circle under Cutcliffe and land back in Carl Franks and Ted Roof territory. These teams are just as bad as those teams were. And while Franks and Roof had excuses (poor assistant pay, lack of facilities, no commitment from the school), Cutcliffe has zero. None. His teams are more talented, the assistants are paid well and the facilities are outstanding. The stadium was renovated. There are no excuses.

What the Blue Devils returning their start of the century performance tells us is that Cutcliffe isn’t up for the job. And that’s okay. Like Marcus Aurelius noted, “Everything, a horse, a vine, is created for some duty.” Cutcliffe’s duty was to rehabilitate Duke football. He’s done his duty. It’s time for someone else to take the ball from here.

2020 Game Recap – Duke Wins!

Despite playing at night and on Halloween (Duke fans know how disastrous both situations generally are for the Blue Devils), Duke came away with a win against Charlotte. When the last second ticked off the clock, the Blue Devils got their second victory of the season by beating the 49ers 53-19 (sorry for the jumble of numbers, but I didn’t give Charlotte a numerical nickname).

The Official 903 Charlotte vs Duke Game Thread :: WRALSportsFan.com — Duke celebrates a rare victory this year.

Duke copied the blueprint for victory used against Syracuse – Run. The. Damn. Ball. Mataeo Durant and Deon Jackson both ran for over 100 yards and each notched two rushing touchdowns. Jordan Waters and Gunnar Holmberg also got in on the fun and added rushing touchdowns of their own. Chase Brice managed one touchdown through the air to Jalon Calhoun. But other than that pass and a nifty one-handed catch by Jarrett Garner, Brice had a lousy night. He finished the evening with 106 passing yards and 8 completions on just 14 attempts. Not great although you don’t need to throw if you’re running well. Holmberg also had a few drives and finished with 21 yards (2/3 on pass attempts) and one pick on a deep ball that sure looked like it had a defensive PI on it.

The defense looked good despite some penalties that kept a drive going. Rumph had 3 sacks and Heyward and Dimukeje both got one. The kicking teams blocked two punts. On the whole, those units played well. The team did enough on all fronts to overcome Cutcliffe’s lousy 4th down call (Go. Under. Center.) that had the potential to spark a rally. It was a nice night under the lights at Wallace Wade.

So, what do we take from this win? Not much.

Charlotte is a non-conference opponent that is now 2-3. The 49ers haven’t beaten anyone of note this year and aren’t at ACC level competition. This is a game that the Blue Devils are supposed to win. By doing so, Duke continued to punch at (or below) its weight class (the team is 2-5 this year). Also, if your quarterback can barely complete more than 50% of his passes against Charlotte, you can’t expect much against UNC next week.

While it was nice to get a win, I wouldn’t read too much into this game. Just like with the victory over Syracuse, I can’t say that Duke will turn it around and play great for the rest of the season. Don’t be surprised if there’s some regression towards to the mean against the Tar Heels.

Sorry to rain on the parade, but we have to be honest about our expectations for the remainder of the reason. While I’m happy that Duke won and scored a lot of points, I’ve seen this before and won’t get too excited about it.

That said, I’m going to leave you on a positive note. I recently came across Gunnar’s mom’s Twitter account and all I can say is Jennifer Holmberg is the best account you’re not following. I love how she engages with the crowd and promotes her son. As a parent, I can’t help but love it!

2020 Game Previews – Duke v. Charlotte

You’ll notice that I haven’t spent much time doing game previews this season. This is primarily because all I would have to do is change out the name of the opposing team each week. My preview for each game would generally boil down to: a) Duke will turn the ball over; b) Duke’s turnovers will results in a loss. It’s pretty much been this way since the end of the Duke-UNC game last season.

I will do one for the Charlotte game, though. This is because the game will take place on Halloween (which, you know, never ends well for Duke) and because some people think the Blue Devils can win this game. The logic is Duke is in the ACC, Charlotte is new to this level of competition and Cutcliffe’s teams generally get their wins each season aginst non-conference teams.

Given my general nature, I’m not optimistic about the Blue Devils’ chances. To begin with, the 49ers were pretty good last year. They finished the season with a 7-6 record and a loss in the Bahamas Bowl. Duke didn’t make it to a bowl. You can argue that our opponent knows how to win games. But, but, but … Charlotte is currently 2-2 with losses to FAU and App State. The wins are against North Texas and UTEP, so you could say that Duke should be able to coast through this one.

But I’m not confident about this one. Why? To begin with, Charlotte has won two straight and has more wins than the Blue Devils. Moving that most obvious of stats aside, I’ll turn to the most important concern I have going into this game – Duke turns the ball over way, way too much. I’ve covered this extensively and won’t get into it now – if you’re reading this, you know how sloppy the Blue Devils are with the ball. So, moving to the next area of concern, keep in mind that Duke makes a lot of dumb penalties. How many times has Chris Rumph jumped offsides at critical moments? Too many to count.

And what about the injuries? We’re already thin in the secondary and now Mark Gilbert is gone from Wallace Wade forever. That won’t help. The Blue Devils are also down to a third-string center as Will Taylor is going to undergo surgery and Cutcliffe has said that Taylor is likely to miss the rest of the year. I like the OL more than most, and the bye week helps to give the unit more time to gel with a new center, but I’m not crazy about it. I’m rooting for Graham Barton, but this offense has struggled all year (mainly due to, you know, the turnovers).

Let’s be honest, Duke is 1-5 – why would we expect a sudden change in fortunes?

All of these problems and mistakes add up. A team that is injured can’t make mistakes by turning the ball over and making dumb penalties. The breakdown in discipline behind the turnovers and the penalties is something that can kill any team, especially one that doesn’t have any margin for error. For the Blue Devils to win, all three units (offense, defense and the kicking teams) will have to be flawless or at least not a complete disaster. Mistakes will have to be minimized and the team will have to stop being so sloppy. Given that Duke is 1-5 and the head coach is in season 13, I don’t see them improving this week.

Sure, the Blue Devils could still win this game playing the way the team has played all season. It worked against Syracuse. But even if Duke does notch its second win and overcomes terrible play, do you think that formula will work against UNC? Against Wake? Against FSU or GT? I don’t. It sure didn’t work against ND, BC, UVA, VT or NCSU, so I don’t expect it to work against the other ACC teams remaining on the schedule. You can win by playing bad, you just can’t do it often.

To conclude, what’s my prediction? Duke scrapes by with a win in a very, very close game.