Category: State of the Program

Biggest Needs for 2020

With the 2019 season over for the Blue Devils, let’s look ahead to the biggest areas of need for next season. Despite the 5-7 finish, Duke has a lot to look forward to in 2020.

The defensive line, anchored by the likes of Chris Rumph, Victor Dimukeje, Tahj Rice, Derrick Tangelo and Drew Jordan, should be strong. The secondary will continue to do well even with the departure of Dylan Singleton. And while Koby Quansah will hopefully be playing in the NFL next year, Shaka Heyward and Brandon Hill ought to be able to pick up the slack. Quansah jumped in for Ben Humphreys and Joe Giles-Harris and didn’t miss a beat. Let’s hope history repeats itself.

On the offensive side of the ball, the running back stable is loaded. Duke brings back Deon Jackson and Mataeo Durant and hopefully a healthy Brittain Brown. Marvin Hubbard should also be back after sitting out this season recovering from an Achilles injury.

The wide receivers look good, too. While Scott Bracey is almost certainly gone, the Blue Devils will bring back Jalen Calhoun, Jake Bobo, Eli Pancol and Darrell Harding, Jr. And while he may not catch a lot of passes, expect Damon Philyaw-Johnson to give Duke good field position on kick (and hopefully punt) returns.

The real question is whether Duke will have someone to get the receivers the ball. And this brings us to the first need for next season — quarterback.

While Quentin Harris wasn’t particularly great at getting his receivers the ball, he at least brought certainty to the position — you knew who the quarterback was each week. Next season there will be a lot of uncertainty.

The Blue Devils return the following quarterbacks next year (designation for 2020 in parentheses): Chris Katrenick (R-Jr.); Gunnar Holmberg (R-So.); Gavin Spurrier (So.); Jack Colyar (So.); Robert Nelson (So.); and Daniel Karlin (Sr.). Of those, Katrenick and Holmberg are the likely candidates to get the starting nod.

Katrenick was the second-string quarterback this year, had Holmberg not torn his meniscus, Holmberg may have been in Katreinick’s spot and might also have taken Harris’ job. While some folks have raised concerns about his size, the buzz is that Holmberg can play.

But don’t go all in with Holmberg just yet. Duke has a recruit from California, Luca Daimont who can ball. If you haven’t seen any footage of him, go to YouTube or Hudl or wherever and enjoy. Daimont can throw deep, run fast and break ankles.

Given Duke’s fondness for an RPO scheme with QB runs, Diamont fits in great. The QB competition will be interesting. But neither has any experience to speak of (Holmberg has a few snaps from 2018) and not every first-time starter turns into Trevor Lawrence.

There has also been some chatter on social media, that South Carolina quarterback, Jake Bentley may consider transferring to Duke. Though that may be wishful thinking, if it did come to fruition, it would provide the Blue Devils with some experience in the quarterback mix. Bentley had a good career in Columbia. He threw for over 7,500 yards and 55 touchdowns. He’s also near the top of a lot of statistical categories. He’d be an excellent addition for 2020.

Until the quarterback situation works itself out, the Blue Devils will need to rely heavily on their kicking game if they want to win games, which brings us to our second need for 2020, a punter.

Coming into 2019, I liked Austin Parker, but always viewed him as a three-and-thirty guy (three second of hang time and 30 yards net). But he punted like Will Monday down the stretch this season. When he wasn’t running or trying to throw for a first down, he was snagging 70 plus yard punts. His end of season stats were pretty good — 45.7 yards per punt and a 41.1 net. That will flip the field and give your defense a chance to get stops.

His replacement will be Porter Wilson. He’s a three-star kid from Ohio and the buzz was pretty positive. I’m excited to see what he can do although I will miss Parker.

The field goal kicking situation is a little murky and is our third area of need – a kicker. AJ Reed entered the transfer portal and is probably gone. Reed had a really good year (15-18 FGs (some were missed due to snaps, holds and weather) and 34-34 XPs) including a 51-yard field goal. At times he was our best offensive weapon. Losing him could be disastrous. Remember what happened when Ross Martin left? Yeah, let’s not go there.

The Blue Devils do have a highly rated kicker waiting in the wings, Charlie Ham. He was a 3-star recruit and was ranked 11th nationally according to 247. I’ve seen him ranked 5th nationally elsewhere. Whatever ranking you choose, the consensus is that he’s good which means the odds are he will do well. That said, Reed was also highly touted but took a while to settle in. Let’s hope that Ham picks up where Reed left off (assuming Reed leaves).

And those are what I think are the biggest needs going into 2020 from a personnel perspective. We’ll have more on the coaching staff later.

While you wait for that, tell us what you think in the comments below. What are the biggest needs going into next season?

Eight Blue Devils Nab All-ACC Honors

Duke’s football season ended unceremoniously last Saturday, but despite the disappointment, the Blue Devils did grab some ACC-Honors.

While no Blue Deivls made it on the first team, they did land on the second team roster. Those included Tight end Noah Gray, Defensive End Victor Dimukeje and Damond Philyaw-Johnson who got All-ACC honors for his special team’s play.

Defensive end Chris Rumph II and linebacker Koby Quansah were named to the third team. Center Jack Wohlabaugh, kicker AJ Reed and punter Austin Parker were named All-ACC Honorable mention.

Gray a junior tight end was quarterback Quentin Harris’ favorite target. He caught 51 passes for 392 yards and 3 touchdowns. Gray has all the size and talent to be an NFL caliber tight end and if he opts to return for his senior year could put up big numbers with the right quarterback.

Dimukeje was a stalwart on the defensive front, recording 8.5 sacks. He will be anchor on the Duke defensive front next season.

Philyaw-Johnson, was a late season sensation after his two kickoff returns for touchdowns against Wake Forest. The sophomore wide receiver didn’t put up much in the way of numbers on offense but proved to be a capable returner with 549 yards on 18 returns and two touchdowns. As a junior he could prove to be an asset as both a receiver and returner.

Rumph and Quansah were big contributors on the defensive side of the ball. Quansah will leave the program but Rumph should return and help provide a formidable defensive front with the likes of Dimukeje next season.

The absence of any players on the first team, speaks more to the inconsistencies of the Blue Devils and their failure to reach a bowl game. While there certainly be some hand wringing in Durham after a disappointing season, the cupboard is far from bare.

2019 Duke Football – More of the Same

What follows below is a recap of the 2019 season with some thoughts on how this season compares to how Duke’s done since 2012. There’s also discussion of what to expect going forward. Read at your own peril.

Duke finished this season 5-7 overall and missed a bowl game. While not being bowl eligible has been the exception since 2012, this team’s overall performance is pretty much classic Duke under David Cutcliffe. Since 2012 (I’m excluding the 2013 campaign for reasons that will become clear), Duke has finished with the following records:

  • 6-7;
  • 9-4;
  • 8-5;
  • 4-8 (season ruined by injuries);
  • 7-6;
  • 8-5 (more injuries); and now
  • 5-7.

That’s a total of 6.7 wins a year. That puts the 2019 Duke team 1.7 wins shy of its average. Had Duke gotten to six wins and gone to a low-tier bowl like it did the last two years, the Blue Devils would have finished with a 7-6 record and continued its streak of being an average team. And that was attainable given how the Pitt and UNC games played out. So 2019 isn’t really that far off from what Duke’s average performance. While some of us, myself included, expected more, maybe we shouldn’t have.

But beyond the overall record, let’s look at how Duke’s done in the ACC and how the 2019 season fits with that performance. From 2012 to the present (again, I’m excluding 2013), Duke has posted the following conference records:

  • 3-5 (T-5th in Coastal);
  • 5-3 (2nd in Coastal);
  • 4-4 (T-4th in Coastal);
  • 1-7 (T-6th in Coastal);
  • 3-5 (T-4th in Coastal);
  • 3-5 (6th in Coastal); and
  • 3-5 (6th in Coastal).

Notice the trend? Duke has hovered right around the bottom of the Coastal since 2012 and especially over the last 5 years. The 5-3 season is a clear outlier. The last three seasons show the norm – a sub-.500 conference record and a strange 3-5 model of consistency. The 2019 team rose to the challenge of being average. This season isn’t that different from what we’ve seen since 2012. In fact, it’s what we usually get every year.

It should be obvious why I excluded the 2013 season in which the Blue Devils went 10-4 overall and 6-2 in conference. It’s a statistical anomaly. It’s a unicorn. Whatever you want to call it, that season is something that is unlikely to be repeated at Duke (I don’t have enough alcohol to play the “What If” game when it comes to the 2018 team). It lines up with what happened at Ole Miss in 2003 – ten wins, a division title and a level of success that wasn’t replicated at any other point during Cutcliffe’s tenure as head coach.

Can we expect better from Cutcliffe going forward? I doubt it. Cutcliffe has been at Duke since 2008. In 12 years at the helm and 8 since completing his rebuild, the win-loss record speaks for itself. Going back to his time at Ole Miss, Cutcliffe managed one season with a winning conference record, two 3-5 seasons and three straight 4-4 campaigns. The trend is there for everyone to notice. Cutcliffe’s teams play to the middle at best and the bottom at worst. Occasionally a team will overachieve, but those seasons outliers.

While there is a lot of talk about how Duke has improved under Cutcliffe, and that is true, what heights have the Blue Devils reached? Other than a two-season stretch that included an ACC Coastal crown and berths in the Peach (sorry, but that’s what I’m calling it) and Sun Bowls, not much. While Duke has won three bowl games, they beat a 6-6 Indiana team, Northern Illinois and a Rutgers team with an interim coach. Hardly the stuff of football lore. Duke’s best bowl win is against an Indiana team that was 2-6 in the Big Ten. The coach from that team is no longer there. The phrase “Not great, Bob” comes to mind.

I want Duke to be better next season, but I’m not unrealistic. The schedule looks tough (and we’ll have more on that later) and I don’t see how the Blue Devils do much better than they did this season. There are uncertainties at quarterback and in the kicking game. With changes at these critical positions, what can we really expect?

After the 2018 season, I told a friend that Duke was going to range somewhere between 4 wins at worst and 8 wins at best. Unless Duke really shakes up its offensive system, we shouldn’t expect much more than what Duke did this year. While the Blue Devils didn’t make a bowl, they continued the trend of more of the mediocre same.

Let’s hope for some improvement next year and that Coach Cutcliffe takes the team to new heights. Go Duke!

Season’s End: Comings and Goings

As the season quickly approaches its anticlimactic end, the preparation for next season is underway and that includes some notable departures for the Duke Blue Devils football program.

Aside from the seniors, the Blue Devils announced some unexpected, if not unsurprisingly early defections including wide receiver Scott Bracey and kicker AJ Reed.

They join four other early departures heading out of Durham following what is likely to be the season’s final game Saturday against Miami.

Bracey has battled injury most of his Duke career and finally broke out this season. Despite being healthy and reaping the benefits with greater targets, Bracey is on the way out likely to seek more opportunities with another program as a graduate transfer.

The bad news is Duke is losing a quality, and veteran receiver, which would come in handy with whichever first time starter the Devils opt to go with next season at quarterback. The good news is that despite the struggles of this season, Duke has a solid, young core group of receivers who have shown big play making ability.

Jake Bobo will return for his junior year and can be expected to be a go-to target for the Blue Devils. Bobo was sidelined to start the season but has shown glimpses of what the Duke coaching staff was hoping to see prior to suffering a broken clavicle.

Duke also will return Jalon Calhoun, Eli Pancol, Darrell Harding Jr., and Damond Philyaw-Johnson which should make for a formidable wide receiving core.

Bracey will be missed in Durham, but he hardly is leaving with the cupboard empty for whomever takes over at quarterback.

The departure of kicker AJ Reed, the comeback story of the year for the Blue Devils leaves a few more questions. After coming in with lots of expectations, Reed struggled through his freshman season and went nearly two years before making another field goal.

His reemergence this season stabilized the Duke kicking game which had become a liability since Ross Martin graduated. Duke now must replace Reed, presumably with Jack Driggars who has handled kickoff duties this season.

If Driggars can’t get the job done, then Duke’s kicking game will fall back into limbo.

Duke has plenty of time in the off season with no bowl to prepare for these things, and given the frustrations of this season perhaps some time away will re-energize a program that has suddenly found itself with more questions than answers after several years of steady progress.

Notes: Besides Bracey and Reed the early departures include: Safeties Javon Jackson, Damani Neal, and Antone Williams as well as lineman Liam Smith.