At 7:00 p.m. on Friday, Duke will have an opportunity to get to six wins and become bowl eligible for the first time since 2018. To do that, the Blue Devils will have to beat Boston College on the road. On paper, this looks like a definite win. But, as we all know, games aren’t played on paper. So, what can we expect to see in this game?
From Duke, we are going to see an offense without Eli Pancol who may be out for the rest of the year with a lower leg injury. That’s unfortunate, but there is depth at that position. One of the receivers will have to step up, be it Hagans, Robertson, Bowen-Sims, etc., or a combination thereof. Hopefully Coach Johns will find a way to increase the usage of Jordan Moore and Nicky Dalmolin. Those two should help Riley Leonard manage the loss of such a key player in Pancol. But the best way to help the offense will be to keep running the ball. A lot. This team is putting up more than 200 yards per game, so keep going with what works. And with the offense facing a team that is 61st in total defense and gives up an average of 367.2 yards per game, I expect the offense to put up yards and points. A lot of them. I mean, this is a defense that gave up 27 to a bad Virginia Tech team. Given that, expect the visiting team to put up just a tad more than 27.
On the defensive end of the ball, and this gets into what we can expect to see from the Eagles, I’d expect the Blue Devil defensive line to shut down the running game and make Boston College one-dimensional. The Eagles are only putting up 67.5 rushing yards per outing (you read that right), so look for Carter and Franklin to feast. Boston College has also given up 29 sacks so far. Again, expect the DL and LBs (looking at you, Shaka) to feast and for the secondary to jump routes to try and create turnovers. And given that the Eagles have thrown nine picks so far, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that trend continue here. As far as what I think will happen, I expect the Duke secondary to get some picks or otherwise for the Blue Devil defense as a whole to create turnovers via strip-sacks, fumbles, or both.
Evaluating the matchup from a big picture perspective, Duke is in good shape heading into this game despite the Pancol injury as it will take on an opponent in the midst of a bad, bad season. Boston College is 1-4 in conference, 2-6 overall and is currently suffering through a three game losing streak including a bad one against UConn. The Eagles have only posted wins against Maine and, somewhat surprisingly, Louisville. But that win came before the Cardinals started to get hot. Putting aside the relative merits of the win, it’s a still a win and it ought to tell the Blue Devils not to overlook their opponent. While Boston College hasn’t done much to write home about this season, Duke absolutely cannot ignore a conference opponent. This team can’t afford a repeat of what happened against Georgia Tech.
So, who will win this game? Well, the Blue Devils are somewhere between a 9.5 and a 10.5 point favorite over the Eagles. Our guest picker, Freddie Hodges, is saying to take the Bull City Boys to cover and provides the following analysis of the game –
Boston College hit a new low losing to UConn. That was Uconn’s first win over a Power Five opponent since the Huskies beat Virginia in September 2016. Duke is coming off a bye week and Vegas has the current line at -9.5 in Duke’s favor with the Over/Under at 48.5. Sometimes a team can be a little rusty coming off a bye week. I also have to take into account that BC is looking for a win after that upset last week and have a home game on a Friday night when I think more fans would be likely to come out for a Friday night lights game instead of say a 12:30 kickoff day game. Even with all of that said… I think Coach Elko has this team ready for an away night game and Duke covers the spread and I am going with the Over as well. Duke 41 BC 13.
Thanks, Freddie, for prediction and the analysis. It is appreciated! You all can follow Freddie’s work at Blue Devils Blog. He has some great content.
As for me, I am also taking Duke to win 41-13. Given that the Hokies put up 27, you have to think that the Blue Devils will put up 14 more. All things considered, I think Duke will come out hungry and ready to clinch bowl eligibility. The 2022 Blue Devils are different than prior iterations and won’t miss an opportunity to go bowling.
Now, before I close the post out, I wanted to let you all know that I’m trying to expand the brand by going to a few more social media sites. As a result, you can find me on Reddit and Mastodon. I’ve tried Counter Social, but I’m not sure how to use it yet and I’m not sure I’ll stick with it (same with Mastodon – we’ll see how it plays out). Regardless, the Duke football subreddit is pretty cool and we could always use more folks there. Check it out when you can.
Also, I’m going to try and post a little more music here. So, what follows is a recording of an old-time tune called “June Apple” that Tim and I did. We hope you enjoy it. Tim is on fiddle and I’m on guitar.
That’s it for the game preview. Let me know what you think about what I think in the comments or on Twitter, Reddit or Mastodon.
As always, Go Duke!
Bull City Coordinators - A Duke Football Blog 