BullCityCoordinators

2020 Outlook – Schedule

We’re continuing our discussion of next season by looking at Duke’s 2020 opponents. While the Blue Devils don’t have to play Clemson or Alabama, we do get a date with Notre Dame. Let’s burn the tape from 2019.

Duke starts off the season with three non-conference games against Middle Tennessee, Elon and Charlotte. I think Duke will win the first two, but don’t be surprised if the Blue Devils struggle against Charlotte. The 49ers went 7-6 in 2019 (and concluded the season with a loss in the Bahamas Bowl) and will probably roll into Durham with a lot of confidence. The 49ers QB will be a junior this year and ready to get a big win. What would be better than knocking off Duke in Durham? I’ll feel better about this game after knowing: a) who the Blue Devils start at QB; and b) how the offense performs with that new QB at the helm.

Let’s assume that Duke starts off 3-0. What happens when the Blue Devils go to South Bend? Probably not this

I’m putting money down on a loss. The Irish return a 5th-year senior at quarterback and went 11-2 in 2019 with a bowl win. Notre Dame absolutely slaughtered Duke in 2019. Let’s be realistic – best case scenario for Duke after the first 4 games is 3-1.

After that, the Blue Devils turn to the ACC schedule. The 2020 squad will face off against UVA, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Miami, NC State, Pitt, Wake and UNC. Duke’s best chances for wins will be against Georgia Tech, NC State and Miami or Wake. UVA is a possible as is UNC, but neither are locks. God has ordained that Duke can’t beat Pitt, so let’s table that one and go through the conference schedule in more detail.

Georgia Tech is still adapting to a new system which gives Duke the edge, especially if the game is early in the season when the Blue Devils historically are at their best. NC State somehow managed to look worse than Duke in 2019 and that’s saying something. I watched a little bit of State this year and the QBs were underwhelming at best. If that continues, Duke is likely to pull out a win. State recently rearranged the offensive coaching staff and moved former Blue Devil OC Kurt Roper to RB coach, but I don’t think that will fix what’s been wrong with the Wolfpack of late. My money is on Duke.

As for Miami, Duke somehow managed to play well at the end of 2019 and get a win. Beyond the end to the season, Duke has played pretty well against Miami of late, earning wins in 2018 and 2019. Duke should have gotten a win in 2015, too (thanks, ACC refs) and managed a win in 2013.

If history is any guide, we should not be talking about Duke getting a win against Wake. They have owned the Blue Devils of late. But let’s keep things in context. The 2018 loss had a lot to do with injuries and the team being broken from the cumulative burden of everyone getting hurt who could get hurt. The 2019 loss somehow managed to get Duke going again and preceded the victory at Miami. Wake will be breaking in a new QB as their top two are leaving the school. So, basically, I’m telling you there’s a chance.

What about UVA? Much like with Pitt, Duke has been dominated by UVA since Mendenhall took over the Cavs. UVA will have a new QB, though, as Perkins is (finally) gone. My VA Tech fan friends all say that UVA without Perkins isn’t as strong of a team. I’ve had the same thoughts over the years – Perkins elevated that team beyond its talent level – and am glad to hear people who watching the Cavs a lot say the same thing. Let’s hope that assessment is correct and UVA takes a step back. If so, Duke could squeeze out a win. Plus, aren’t the Blue Devils due?

That brings us to UNC. Duke lost a game last year it should have won. The defense played well. They picked off Howell twice and held him to 10 completions on 26 attempts. The Blue Devils gave up a lot of running yards, but not a lot of points – the classic bend-don’t-break approach that has defined Duke for years. Given the rivalry, this game is winnable. That said, I’d put money on UNC right now. Depending on how the season goes, my assessment may change.

What about the rest of the schedule? I’m not comfortable saying Duke will repeat against Virginia Tech. Fuente turned the Hokies around after losing to the Blue Devils and Duke kind of gave up after that game. The teams seem to play better against one another on the road and the Blue Devils host this year.

My overall prediction for the conference is 4-4. I think 5 wins is the ceiling. As far as the season as a whole, I have Duke going 7-5 and possibly 8-4. I feel okay saying that Duke is 3-1 heading into the conference schedule. After that, Duke most likely picks up 4 more wins and finishes in the middle of the Coastal. I’m expecting struggles once the conference games start just like what we’ve seen every year with the exception of 2013 (and another 5-7 season wouldn’t stun me). That said, if the Blue Devils can go 7-5 with a third quarterback in three seasons and get back to a bowl game, I’d be real, real pleased.

Thoughts? Agree? Disagree? What do you think? Tell us in the comments below.

Best Teams of the 2010s

I’m not a huge fan of the All-Decade discussions. I generally find them to be clickbait – a cheap attempt to bring traffic to your site. However, I have been pretty impressed with the work that Duke Maven has done of late. Go over and check out the lists. It’s worth the time.

That got me thinking about some All-Decade stuff that would be worth putting together and I landed on a list of the best teams from the 2010s. “Best” here means the teams that had the biggest impact on the program’s legacy, not the most talented. Here’s what I put together. The order is from least best to best:

Number 5 – 2014 team. The Blue Devils couldn’t pull off another Coastal win, but did finish 9-4 with a loss in the Sun Bowl. Duke beat Wake to cap the regular season and brought the construction equipment onto the field after the game. Two missed field goals by Ross Martin against Virginia Tech kept Duke from getting to 10 wins. This team was ranked for four weeks, but an inconsistent offense kept the Blue Devils from doing more this season. A thumping by UNC after the loss to Tech didn’t help, either. Duke closed the regular season at 9-3 overall, 5-3 in conference and lost three of its last four games. The rehab of Wallace Wade began at the end of the season. This team closed out old Wallace Wade and ushered in a new era of Duke football.

Number 4 – 2015 team. DUKE WON A BOWL GAME! This team wasn’t bad despite getting a new quarterback in Thomas Sirk. He wasn’t great, but he would rise to the occasion and make big plays when he needed to. Duke finished the regular season at 7-5 and 4-4 in conference with a terrible November (sound familiar?). After losing to Miami on Halloween on an admittedly incorrect review at the end of the game, the Blue Devils fell apart. They got demolished by UNC (66-31) and then lost to Pitt and Virginia. Duke bounced back with a 27-21 win over Wake and got to the Pinstripe Bowl where they managed the program’s first bowl win in a mere 54 years. The Blue Devils won a thrilling 4 OT game against Virginia Tech in Blacksburg and were ranked as high as 22 before the Miami debacle. The Tech game was something else as is shown below

Number 3 – 2018 team. I’ll admit that an Independence Bowl win doesn’t normally get ranked this high at other schools. Nor does a team that got whipped by Wake 59-7 to close out the regular season. But you have to remember just how many injuries this team had that season. It seemed like someone got hurt every day. Daniel Jones missed time and was rushed back too soon and ran a one-dimensional offense against Virginia Tech (a brutal loss). Duke also lost all-world corner Mark Gilbert to a dislocated hip against Northwestern. Cerenord, Quansah and Carter and many, many others missed time that year. I think around 15 starters missed time. TDD had a great podcast that detailed just how much time players missed due to injury. I think it came out to Duke missing about 1/3 of its team for the season.

Despite that, Duke did some good things. The Blue Devils had a 6-0 lead over eventual national champion Clemson at the end of the first quarter (who cares about the rest of the game?). Duke got ranked once and had nice wins against Georgia Tech, Miami and a third-straight against UNC when Daniel Jones just couldn’t be stopped (I was at the game and he took it to another level).

Highlights aside, this will always be a “what if” year for Duke. The bowl win was also nice, especially after the disaster against Wake. And, let’s not forget that this team gave us Deon Jackson breaking the U against Miami

Team 2 – 2012 team. 6 wins, a bowl game and Duke brought home the Victory Bell for the first time since 2003! Who cares if the Blue Devils finished with a sub-.500 record and lost 5 straight to close out the year? This season made Duke relevant for the first time since 1995 which was the last time the Blue Devils were in a bowl game. This team made going to bowls the expectation. And I loved it every minute of it. Sure, it stunk to lose 5 straight after starting 6-2, but it was a lot of fun. And I say this despite being at the bowl game, thinking Duke won it and then suffering through the horrendous loss.

Team 1 – 2013 team, obviously. ACC Coastal champs!!! What else do we need to say??? How about the DeVon Edwards game against NC State?

This season had it all. 10 wins, 6 conference wins, beating Virginia Tech at Tech in one of the ugliest games ever, beating UNC and a lot of happy moments. This is Cutcliffe’s crown jewel at Duke. It was a hell of a ride.

The 2010 decade was, by far, the best decade for Duke football. Let’s hope the next decade is even better. Go Duke!

2020 Outlook – Addison Penn

Sorry for being a little late on this one, but the holidays and all…

Just in time for Christmas, Duke got a late recruiting Christmas gift when it managed to flip offensive lineman Addison Penn from BC. Penn is a 6-4/275 center from Southlake, Texas. He committed to BC in June, but decommitted in December. Not long after that, Penn signed at Duke.

This is a good pickup for the Blue Devils, no question about it. What can Penn do? While 247 has him as a 3-star, his highlight reel looks impressive. You can see Penn’s experience with a read-option which is Duke’s base offense (other than runs right up the middle). That will come in handy for whoever is the starting quarterback next year (which is likely to be Luca Diamont since he enrolled early).

In addition to what you see on film, Penn received a first-team all district selection in 2018 which tells you he knows what he’s doing. Will he play this season? It’s possible, but we doubt it. It’s more likely that he starts picking up a lot of playing time in 2021. Why? Let’s examine the roster.

Duke currently has three centers, but starter Jack Wolbaugh is headed into his senior year as is reserve Liam Smith. Factor in Will Taylor, a rising redshirt junior, being on the backside of his time in Durham and you can see how quickly Penn will get an opportunity to play. We expect him to redshirt next season and to get significant playing time after that.

Keep on eye on Penn. We’re hoping he’ll be the next Matt Skura.

2020 Outlook – J’Marick Woods Comes to Duke

The Blue Devils picked up a graduate transfer at the end of the work week. Safety J’Marick Woods will be leaving Michigan to come to Durham. Woods is a 6-3, 210 pounder from Alabama. He came out of high school as a 3-star recruit and had offers from Michigan, LSU, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Tennessee and, of course, Duke. He played sparingly at Michigan.

The addition of Woods adds depth to the secondary which the Blue Devils always need. The defense under Cutcliffe has typically been a 4-2-5 and there are never enough corners and safeties on the roster. Having Woods may also add another player to the kicking teams. Woods may play there or it may free someone else to play there more. Given how important special teams will be to a team starting a third QB in three seasons, we can’t say enough about how important the kicking game will be.

Welcome to Durham, J’Marick. We’re hoping for a great season from you in 2020!

2020 Outlook – Ryan Smith Commits to Duke

As we were finishing our last post, word broke that Ryan Smith committed to Duke. Talk about Bang Bang Duke Gang! While Smith isn’t the highest rated prospect, he’s a three-star LB who was named defensive player of the year for his region. That’s always impressive, no matter what level of competition.

What can Smith do? A little bit of everything. His junior year highlights show how capable he is. He can run, catch and block kicks on special teams. Given how important special teams will be for Duke next year as the Blue Devils break in a new starter, a player like him could be important.

How did Duke get him? Well, the Blue Devils got him over competition from Air Force, Akron and three Ivy League schools. It may not be like taking a guy from the SEC, but with a small recruiting class and the need to replace Koby Quansah, you have to take guys who show an ability to make plays. Also, given what success Duke has had with folks from Georgia making plays on special teams and defense (DeVon. Edwards.), it’s always good when the Blue Devils pick up a player from the Peach State.

Congrats to Ryan Smith and to Duke!

2020 Outlook – Incoming Recruits

(This article was written before Ryan Smith committed. We will add a piece about him later.)

Currently, Duke has a pretty small recruiting class that totals all of 12 people. In advance of National Signing Day, let’s get to know the class a little better.

The gem of Duke Gang 2020 is, without question, Luca Diamont. We’ve discussed him before. Diamont is a three-star quarterback who can run, throw and do seemingly everything. He’s a dual-threat quarterback and at 6-2/180 has good size, though will need to pickup some weight.

Having watched his senior season highlights on Hudl, what I found particularly interesting is his ability to throw on the run. Given Duke’s difficulties on the OL this season and the coming changeover, making plays outside the pocket will be a necessity for him. Take a look at Diamont here.

The kid is impressive. He has a strong arm and the ability to throw deep. If Duke can remember how to do that next season, the Blue Devils offense may be fun again.

The next highest rated player is Graham Barton, a 6-5/300 pound offensive lineman from Tennessee. Barton joins Calib Perez, an offensive tackle from Texas as Duke’s only incoming linemen.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Blue Devils recently picked up Gary Smith. Like Barton, Smith is a Tennessean. He chose Duke over Virginia Tech and looks poised to make a big impact in the coming years. Smith also plays on the OL at times – 247 has him listed at both positions in different spots. I’m not sure where he will play at Duke. Learn more about him at Hudl.

Other top prospects include Malik Bowen (WR), Michael Reese (DT) and Dorian Mausi (OLB). Of these three, I’d expect Mausi to have the best shot at playing early. Duke’s a little thin at LB and while Mausi is a little undersized, he has a real motor, gets after the quarterback and makes good decisions. His senior highlight reel is here.

The Blue Devils have a lot other talented players coming in. There have also been some other offers of late. Specifically, Duke offered Addison Penn (OL), a BC commit. Duke is also looking at Jontavis Robertson, a WR from Georgia. The Blue Devils have found a lot of good players from Georgia over the years (the Singletons, DeVon Edwards, etc.), so let’s hope this works out, too.

Finally, Duke is making a play for Ger-Cari Caldwell, a WR from Rock Hill, SC (Rock Thrill, baby!). Caldwell is a little thin at 6-4/192, so expect him to redshirt if he comes to Duke, but his highlight reel shows how good he is at running WR screens. That ability makes him the perfect Blue Devil WR.

While the class is small, it may grow. Duke Maven has a lot of good coverage on the class and some outstanding offers. Take a look when you can.

2020 Updates – QB and Staff

When Jake Bentley announced he would be leaving USC, there was some speculation he might end up in Durham. Unfortunately, Utah was the front runner and is where Bentley ended up. While Luca Diamont and Gunnar Holmberg look promising, they lack the experience that Bentley has. The Blue Devils’ quarterbacks will be lacking in that area next season.

While Duke struck out on Bentley, they also missed out on bringing back Matt Luke. As you probably remember, Luke was on Coach Cutcliffe’s first Duke staff in 2008. He coached the offensive line and served as the co-offensive coordinator. Luke stayed at Duke until the end of the 2011 season when he returned to Ole Miss. Towards the end of his time in Durham, Duke’s OL included Matt Skura, Cody Robinson, Lucas Patrick, Dave Harding, Takoby Cofield and Laken Tomlinson. Three of those guys made it to the NFL and Cofield played in the CFL. Not bad.

Luke took over as the head coach at Ole Miss in 2017. While he didn’t win a lot of games, he recruited well and Ole Miss’ young team lost a lot of close games this season. It seemed like he was building something special. It would have been nice to get him back in Durham to see if he could improve the OL.

As with Bentley, that isn’t going to happen. Luke took a job at Georgia as the assistant head coach/OL coach. He’ll stay in the SEC and our offense will continue to struggle.

What does all of this mean for next season? It means Duke will have an inexperienced quarterback. It also means that Cutcliffe will likely not make a staff overhaul. While there may not have been a real shot at getting Matt Luke to come back to Durham, it is a little concerning to see a good OL coach with ties to Cutcliffe not come back to the program. Perhaps Cutcliffe is looking to bring in someone else, but I doubt it. I just don’t see Cutcliffe making significant changes.

Anyone disagree? Anyone think that Cutcliffe is planning something big in regard to the staff? Let us know.

All-Freshman Team Honorable Mentions

Pro Football Focus gave out honorable mentions for its All-Freshman Team to Jalon Calhoun and Eli Pancol. While Calhoun had the better season (4 touchdowns and 420 receiving yards), Pancol had a good year, too (six catches, 91 receiving yards, 20 rushing yards and 4 total touchdowns), and showed an ability to make big plays. These two should make for a strong receiving corps in the years to come.

Congrats to Calhoun and Pancol and let’s hope for a lot of great seasons and great plays over the next three years!

Biggest Needs for 2020

With the 2019 season over for the Blue Devils, let’s look ahead to the biggest areas of need for next season. Despite the 5-7 finish, Duke has a lot to look forward to in 2020.

The defensive line, anchored by the likes of Chris Rumph, Victor Dimukeje, Tahj Rice, Derrick Tangelo and Drew Jordan, should be strong. The secondary will continue to do well even with the departure of Dylan Singleton. And while Koby Quansah will hopefully be playing in the NFL next year, Shaka Heyward and Brandon Hill ought to be able to pick up the slack. Quansah jumped in for Ben Humphreys and Joe Giles-Harris and didn’t miss a beat. Let’s hope history repeats itself.

On the offensive side of the ball, the running back stable is loaded. Duke brings back Deon Jackson and Mataeo Durant and hopefully a healthy Brittain Brown. Marvin Hubbard should also be back after sitting out this season recovering from an Achilles injury.

The wide receivers look good, too. While Scott Bracey is almost certainly gone, the Blue Devils will bring back Jalen Calhoun, Jake Bobo, Eli Pancol and Darrell Harding, Jr. And while he may not catch a lot of passes, expect Damon Philyaw-Johnson to give Duke good field position on kick (and hopefully punt) returns.

The real question is whether Duke will have someone to get the receivers the ball. And this brings us to the first need for next season — quarterback.

While Quentin Harris wasn’t particularly great at getting his receivers the ball, he at least brought certainty to the position — you knew who the quarterback was each week. Next season there will be a lot of uncertainty.

The Blue Devils return the following quarterbacks next year (designation for 2020 in parentheses): Chris Katrenick (R-Jr.); Gunnar Holmberg (R-So.); Gavin Spurrier (So.); Jack Colyar (So.); Robert Nelson (So.); and Daniel Karlin (Sr.). Of those, Katrenick and Holmberg are the likely candidates to get the starting nod.

Katrenick was the second-string quarterback this year, had Holmberg not torn his meniscus, Holmberg may have been in Katreinick’s spot and might also have taken Harris’ job. While some folks have raised concerns about his size, the buzz is that Holmberg can play.

But don’t go all in with Holmberg just yet. Duke has a recruit from California, Luca Daimont who can ball. If you haven’t seen any footage of him, go to YouTube or Hudl or wherever and enjoy. Daimont can throw deep, run fast and break ankles.

Given Duke’s fondness for an RPO scheme with QB runs, Diamont fits in great. The QB competition will be interesting. But neither has any experience to speak of (Holmberg has a few snaps from 2018) and not every first-time starter turns into Trevor Lawrence.

There has also been some chatter on social media, that South Carolina quarterback, Jake Bentley may consider transferring to Duke. Though that may be wishful thinking, if it did come to fruition, it would provide the Blue Devils with some experience in the quarterback mix. Bentley had a good career in Columbia. He threw for over 7,500 yards and 55 touchdowns. He’s also near the top of a lot of statistical categories. He’d be an excellent addition for 2020.

Until the quarterback situation works itself out, the Blue Devils will need to rely heavily on their kicking game if they want to win games, which brings us to our second need for 2020, a punter.

Coming into 2019, I liked Austin Parker, but always viewed him as a three-and-thirty guy (three second of hang time and 30 yards net). But he punted like Will Monday down the stretch this season. When he wasn’t running or trying to throw for a first down, he was snagging 70 plus yard punts. His end of season stats were pretty good — 45.7 yards per punt and a 41.1 net. That will flip the field and give your defense a chance to get stops.

His replacement will be Porter Wilson. He’s a three-star kid from Ohio and the buzz was pretty positive. I’m excited to see what he can do although I will miss Parker.

The field goal kicking situation is a little murky and is our third area of need – a kicker. AJ Reed entered the transfer portal and is probably gone. Reed had a really good year (15-18 FGs (some were missed due to snaps, holds and weather) and 34-34 XPs) including a 51-yard field goal. At times he was our best offensive weapon. Losing him could be disastrous. Remember what happened when Ross Martin left? Yeah, let’s not go there.

The Blue Devils do have a highly rated kicker waiting in the wings, Charlie Ham. He was a 3-star recruit and was ranked 11th nationally according to 247. I’ve seen him ranked 5th nationally elsewhere. Whatever ranking you choose, the consensus is that he’s good which means the odds are he will do well. That said, Reed was also highly touted but took a while to settle in. Let’s hope that Ham picks up where Reed left off (assuming Reed leaves).

And those are what I think are the biggest needs going into 2020 from a personnel perspective. We’ll have more on the coaching staff later.

While you wait for that, tell us what you think in the comments below. What are the biggest needs going into next season?

2019 Duke Football – More of the Same

What follows below is a recap of the 2019 season with some thoughts on how this season compares to how Duke’s done since 2012. There’s also discussion of what to expect going forward. Read at your own peril.

Duke finished this season 5-7 overall and missed a bowl game. While not being bowl eligible has been the exception since 2012, this team’s overall performance is pretty much classic Duke under David Cutcliffe. Since 2012 (I’m excluding the 2013 campaign for reasons that will become clear), Duke has finished with the following records:

6-7;
9-4;
8-5;
4-8 (season ruined by injuries);
7-6;
8-5 (more injuries); and now
5-7.

That’s a total of 6.7 wins a year. That puts the 2019 Duke team 1.7 wins shy of its average. Had Duke gotten to six wins and gone to a low-tier bowl like it did the last two years, the Blue Devils would have finished with a 7-6 record and continued its streak of being an average team. And that was attainable given how the Pitt and UNC games played out. So 2019 isn’t really that far off from what Duke’s average performance. While some of us, myself included, expected more, maybe we shouldn’t have.

But beyond the overall record, let’s look at how Duke’s done in the ACC and how the 2019 season fits with that performance. From 2012 to the present (again, I’m excluding 2013), Duke has posted the following conference records:

3-5 (T-5th in Coastal);
5-3 (2nd in Coastal);
4-4 (T-4th in Coastal);
1-7 (T-6th in Coastal);
3-5 (T-4th in Coastal);
3-5 (6th in Coastal); and
3-5 (6th in Coastal).

Notice the trend? Duke has hovered right around the bottom of the Coastal since 2012 and especially over the last 5 years. The 5-3 season is a clear outlier. The last three seasons show the norm – a sub-.500 conference record and a strange 3-5 model of consistency. The 2019 team rose to the challenge of being average. This season isn’t that different from what we’ve seen since 2012. In fact, it’s what we usually get every year.

It should be obvious why I excluded the 2013 season in which the Blue Devils went 10-4 overall and 6-2 in conference. It’s a statistical anomaly. It’s a unicorn. Whatever you want to call it, that season is something that is unlikely to be repeated at Duke (I don’t have enough alcohol to play the “What If” game when it comes to the 2018 team). It lines up with what happened at Ole Miss in 2003 – ten wins, a division title and a level of success that wasn’t replicated at any other point during Cutcliffe’s tenure as head coach.

Can we expect better from Cutcliffe going forward? I doubt it. Cutcliffe has been at Duke since 2008. In 12 years at the helm and 8 since completing his rebuild, the win-loss record speaks for itself. Going back to his time at Ole Miss, Cutcliffe managed one season with a winning conference record, two 3-5 seasons and three straight 4-4 campaigns. The trend is there for everyone to notice. Cutcliffe’s teams play to the middle at best and the bottom at worst. Occasionally a team will overachieve, but those seasons outliers.

While there is a lot of talk about how Duke has improved under Cutcliffe, and that is true, what heights have the Blue Devils reached? Other than a two-season stretch that included an ACC Coastal crown and berths in the Peach (sorry, but that’s what I’m calling it) and Sun Bowls, not much. While Duke has won three bowl games, they beat a 6-6 Indiana team, Northern Illinois and a Rutgers team with an interim coach. Hardly the stuff of football lore. Duke’s best bowl win is against an Indiana team that was 2-6 in the Big Ten. The coach from that team is no longer there. The phrase “Not great, Bob” comes to mind.

I want Duke to be better next season, but I’m not unrealistic. The schedule looks tough (and we’ll have more on that later) and I don’t see how the Blue Devils do much better than they did this season. There are uncertainties at quarterback and in the kicking game. With changes at these critical positions, what can we really expect?

After the 2018 season, I told a friend that Duke was going to range somewhere between 4 wins at worst and 8 wins at best. Unless Duke really shakes up its offensive system, we shouldn’t expect much more than what Duke did this year. While the Blue Devils didn’t make a bowl, they continued the trend of more of the mediocre same.

Let’s hope for some improvement next year and that Coach Cutcliffe takes the team to new heights. Go Duke!