BullCityCoordinators

2020 Outlook – J’Marick Woods Comes to Duke

The Blue Devils picked up a graduate transfer at the end of the work week. Safety J’Marick Woods will be leaving Michigan to come to Durham. Woods is a 6-3, 210 pounder from Alabama. He came out of high school as a 3-star recruit and had offers from Michigan, LSU, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Tennessee and, of course, Duke. He played sparingly at Michigan.

The addition of Woods adds depth to the secondary which the Blue Devils always need. The defense under Cutcliffe has typically been a 4-2-5 and there are never enough corners and safeties on the roster. Having Woods may also add another player to the kicking teams. Woods may play there or it may free someone else to play there more. Given how important special teams will be to a team starting a third QB in three seasons, we can’t say enough about how important the kicking game will be.

Welcome to Durham, J’Marick. We’re hoping for a great season from you in 2020!

2020 Outlook – Ryan Smith Commits to Duke

As we were finishing our last post, word broke that Ryan Smith committed to Duke. Talk about Bang Bang Duke Gang! While Smith isn’t the highest rated prospect, he’s a three-star LB who was named defensive player of the year for his region. That’s always impressive, no matter what level of competition.

What can Smith do? A little bit of everything. His junior year highlights show how capable he is. He can run, catch and block kicks on special teams. Given how important special teams will be for Duke next year as the Blue Devils break in a new starter, a player like him could be important.

How did Duke get him? Well, the Blue Devils got him over competition from Air Force, Akron and three Ivy League schools. It may not be like taking a guy from the SEC, but with a small recruiting class and the need to replace Koby Quansah, you have to take guys who show an ability to make plays. Also, given what success Duke has had with folks from Georgia making plays on special teams and defense (DeVon. Edwards.), it’s always good when the Blue Devils pick up a player from the Peach State.

Congrats to Ryan Smith and to Duke!

2020 Outlook – Incoming Recruits

(This article was written before Ryan Smith committed. We will add a piece about him later.)

Currently, Duke has a pretty small recruiting class that totals all of 12 people. In advance of National Signing Day, let’s get to know the class a little better.

The gem of Duke Gang 2020 is, without question, Luca Diamont. We’ve discussed him before. Diamont is a three-star quarterback who can run, throw and do seemingly everything. He’s a dual-threat quarterback and at 6-2/180 has good size, though will need to pickup some weight.

Having watched his senior season highlights on Hudl, what I found particularly interesting is his ability to throw on the run. Given Duke’s difficulties on the OL this season and the coming changeover, making plays outside the pocket will be a necessity for him. Take a look at Diamont here.

The kid is impressive. He has a strong arm and the ability to throw deep. If Duke can remember how to do that next season, the Blue Devils offense may be fun again.

The next highest rated player is Graham Barton, a 6-5/300 pound offensive lineman from Tennessee. Barton joins Calib Perez, an offensive tackle from Texas as Duke’s only incoming linemen.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Blue Devils recently picked up Gary Smith. Like Barton, Smith is a Tennessean. He chose Duke over Virginia Tech and looks poised to make a big impact in the coming years. Smith also plays on the OL at times – 247 has him listed at both positions in different spots. I’m not sure where he will play at Duke. Learn more about him at Hudl.

Other top prospects include Malik Bowen (WR), Michael Reese (DT) and Dorian Mausi (OLB). Of these three, I’d expect Mausi to have the best shot at playing early. Duke’s a little thin at LB and while Mausi is a little undersized, he has a real motor, gets after the quarterback and makes good decisions. His senior highlight reel is here.

The Blue Devils have a lot other talented players coming in. There have also been some other offers of late. Specifically, Duke offered Addison Penn (OL), a BC commit. Duke is also looking at Jontavis Robertson, a WR from Georgia. The Blue Devils have found a lot of good players from Georgia over the years (the Singletons, DeVon Edwards, etc.), so let’s hope this works out, too.

Finally, Duke is making a play for Ger-Cari Caldwell, a WR from Rock Hill, SC (Rock Thrill, baby!). Caldwell is a little thin at 6-4/192, so expect him to redshirt if he comes to Duke, but his highlight reel shows how good he is at running WR screens. That ability makes him the perfect Blue Devil WR.

While the class is small, it may grow. Duke Maven has a lot of good coverage on the class and some outstanding offers. Take a look when you can.

2020 Updates – QB and Staff

When Jake Bentley announced he would be leaving USC, there was some speculation he might end up in Durham. Unfortunately, Utah was the front runner and is where Bentley ended up. While Luca Diamont and Gunnar Holmberg look promising, they lack the experience that Bentley has. The Blue Devils’ quarterbacks will be lacking in that area next season.

While Duke struck out on Bentley, they also missed out on bringing back Matt Luke. As you probably remember, Luke was on Coach Cutcliffe’s first Duke staff in 2008. He coached the offensive line and served as the co-offensive coordinator. Luke stayed at Duke until the end of the 2011 season when he returned to Ole Miss. Towards the end of his time in Durham, Duke’s OL included Matt Skura, Cody Robinson, Lucas Patrick, Dave Harding, Takoby Cofield and Laken Tomlinson. Three of those guys made it to the NFL and Cofield played in the CFL. Not bad.

Luke took over as the head coach at Ole Miss in 2017. While he didn’t win a lot of games, he recruited well and Ole Miss’ young team lost a lot of close games this season. It seemed like he was building something special. It would have been nice to get him back in Durham to see if he could improve the OL.

As with Bentley, that isn’t going to happen. Luke took a job at Georgia as the assistant head coach/OL coach. He’ll stay in the SEC and our offense will continue to struggle.

What does all of this mean for next season? It means Duke will have an inexperienced quarterback. It also means that Cutcliffe will likely not make a staff overhaul. While there may not have been a real shot at getting Matt Luke to come back to Durham, it is a little concerning to see a good OL coach with ties to Cutcliffe not come back to the program. Perhaps Cutcliffe is looking to bring in someone else, but I doubt it. I just don’t see Cutcliffe making significant changes.

Anyone disagree? Anyone think that Cutcliffe is planning something big in regard to the staff? Let us know.

All-Freshman Team Honorable Mentions

Pro Football Focus gave out honorable mentions for its All-Freshman Team to Jalon Calhoun and Eli Pancol. While Calhoun had the better season (4 touchdowns and 420 receiving yards), Pancol had a good year, too (six catches, 91 receiving yards, 20 rushing yards and 4 total touchdowns), and showed an ability to make big plays. These two should make for a strong receiving corps in the years to come.

Congrats to Calhoun and Pancol and let’s hope for a lot of great seasons and great plays over the next three years!

Biggest Needs for 2020

With the 2019 season over for the Blue Devils, let’s look ahead to the biggest areas of need for next season. Despite the 5-7 finish, Duke has a lot to look forward to in 2020.

The defensive line, anchored by the likes of Chris Rumph, Victor Dimukeje, Tahj Rice, Derrick Tangelo and Drew Jordan, should be strong. The secondary will continue to do well even with the departure of Dylan Singleton. And while Koby Quansah will hopefully be playing in the NFL next year, Shaka Heyward and Brandon Hill ought to be able to pick up the slack. Quansah jumped in for Ben Humphreys and Joe Giles-Harris and didn’t miss a beat. Let’s hope history repeats itself.

On the offensive side of the ball, the running back stable is loaded. Duke brings back Deon Jackson and Mataeo Durant and hopefully a healthy Brittain Brown. Marvin Hubbard should also be back after sitting out this season recovering from an Achilles injury.

The wide receivers look good, too. While Scott Bracey is almost certainly gone, the Blue Devils will bring back Jalen Calhoun, Jake Bobo, Eli Pancol and Darrell Harding, Jr. And while he may not catch a lot of passes, expect Damon Philyaw-Johnson to give Duke good field position on kick (and hopefully punt) returns.

The real question is whether Duke will have someone to get the receivers the ball. And this brings us to the first need for next season — quarterback.

While Quentin Harris wasn’t particularly great at getting his receivers the ball, he at least brought certainty to the position — you knew who the quarterback was each week. Next season there will be a lot of uncertainty.

The Blue Devils return the following quarterbacks next year (designation for 2020 in parentheses): Chris Katrenick (R-Jr.); Gunnar Holmberg (R-So.); Gavin Spurrier (So.); Jack Colyar (So.); Robert Nelson (So.); and Daniel Karlin (Sr.). Of those, Katrenick and Holmberg are the likely candidates to get the starting nod.

Katrenick was the second-string quarterback this year, had Holmberg not torn his meniscus, Holmberg may have been in Katreinick’s spot and might also have taken Harris’ job. While some folks have raised concerns about his size, the buzz is that Holmberg can play.

But don’t go all in with Holmberg just yet. Duke has a recruit from California, Luca Daimont who can ball. If you haven’t seen any footage of him, go to YouTube or Hudl or wherever and enjoy. Daimont can throw deep, run fast and break ankles.

Given Duke’s fondness for an RPO scheme with QB runs, Diamont fits in great. The QB competition will be interesting. But neither has any experience to speak of (Holmberg has a few snaps from 2018) and not every first-time starter turns into Trevor Lawrence.

There has also been some chatter on social media, that South Carolina quarterback, Jake Bentley may consider transferring to Duke. Though that may be wishful thinking, if it did come to fruition, it would provide the Blue Devils with some experience in the quarterback mix. Bentley had a good career in Columbia. He threw for over 7,500 yards and 55 touchdowns. He’s also near the top of a lot of statistical categories. He’d be an excellent addition for 2020.

Until the quarterback situation works itself out, the Blue Devils will need to rely heavily on their kicking game if they want to win games, which brings us to our second need for 2020, a punter.

Coming into 2019, I liked Austin Parker, but always viewed him as a three-and-thirty guy (three second of hang time and 30 yards net). But he punted like Will Monday down the stretch this season. When he wasn’t running or trying to throw for a first down, he was snagging 70 plus yard punts. His end of season stats were pretty good — 45.7 yards per punt and a 41.1 net. That will flip the field and give your defense a chance to get stops.

His replacement will be Porter Wilson. He’s a three-star kid from Ohio and the buzz was pretty positive. I’m excited to see what he can do although I will miss Parker.

The field goal kicking situation is a little murky and is our third area of need – a kicker. AJ Reed entered the transfer portal and is probably gone. Reed had a really good year (15-18 FGs (some were missed due to snaps, holds and weather) and 34-34 XPs) including a 51-yard field goal. At times he was our best offensive weapon. Losing him could be disastrous. Remember what happened when Ross Martin left? Yeah, let’s not go there.

The Blue Devils do have a highly rated kicker waiting in the wings, Charlie Ham. He was a 3-star recruit and was ranked 11th nationally according to 247. I’ve seen him ranked 5th nationally elsewhere. Whatever ranking you choose, the consensus is that he’s good which means the odds are he will do well. That said, Reed was also highly touted but took a while to settle in. Let’s hope that Ham picks up where Reed left off (assuming Reed leaves).

And those are what I think are the biggest needs going into 2020 from a personnel perspective. We’ll have more on the coaching staff later.

While you wait for that, tell us what you think in the comments below. What are the biggest needs going into next season?

2019 Duke Football – More of the Same

What follows below is a recap of the 2019 season with some thoughts on how this season compares to how Duke’s done since 2012. There’s also discussion of what to expect going forward. Read at your own peril.

Duke finished this season 5-7 overall and missed a bowl game. While not being bowl eligible has been the exception since 2012, this team’s overall performance is pretty much classic Duke under David Cutcliffe. Since 2012 (I’m excluding the 2013 campaign for reasons that will become clear), Duke has finished with the following records:

6-7;
9-4;
8-5;
4-8 (season ruined by injuries);
7-6;
8-5 (more injuries); and now
5-7.

That’s a total of 6.7 wins a year. That puts the 2019 Duke team 1.7 wins shy of its average. Had Duke gotten to six wins and gone to a low-tier bowl like it did the last two years, the Blue Devils would have finished with a 7-6 record and continued its streak of being an average team. And that was attainable given how the Pitt and UNC games played out. So 2019 isn’t really that far off from what Duke’s average performance. While some of us, myself included, expected more, maybe we shouldn’t have.

But beyond the overall record, let’s look at how Duke’s done in the ACC and how the 2019 season fits with that performance. From 2012 to the present (again, I’m excluding 2013), Duke has posted the following conference records:

3-5 (T-5th in Coastal);
5-3 (2nd in Coastal);
4-4 (T-4th in Coastal);
1-7 (T-6th in Coastal);
3-5 (T-4th in Coastal);
3-5 (6th in Coastal); and
3-5 (6th in Coastal).

Notice the trend? Duke has hovered right around the bottom of the Coastal since 2012 and especially over the last 5 years. The 5-3 season is a clear outlier. The last three seasons show the norm – a sub-.500 conference record and a strange 3-5 model of consistency. The 2019 team rose to the challenge of being average. This season isn’t that different from what we’ve seen since 2012. In fact, it’s what we usually get every year.

It should be obvious why I excluded the 2013 season in which the Blue Devils went 10-4 overall and 6-2 in conference. It’s a statistical anomaly. It’s a unicorn. Whatever you want to call it, that season is something that is unlikely to be repeated at Duke (I don’t have enough alcohol to play the “What If” game when it comes to the 2018 team). It lines up with what happened at Ole Miss in 2003 – ten wins, a division title and a level of success that wasn’t replicated at any other point during Cutcliffe’s tenure as head coach.

Can we expect better from Cutcliffe going forward? I doubt it. Cutcliffe has been at Duke since 2008. In 12 years at the helm and 8 since completing his rebuild, the win-loss record speaks for itself. Going back to his time at Ole Miss, Cutcliffe managed one season with a winning conference record, two 3-5 seasons and three straight 4-4 campaigns. The trend is there for everyone to notice. Cutcliffe’s teams play to the middle at best and the bottom at worst. Occasionally a team will overachieve, but those seasons outliers.

While there is a lot of talk about how Duke has improved under Cutcliffe, and that is true, what heights have the Blue Devils reached? Other than a two-season stretch that included an ACC Coastal crown and berths in the Peach (sorry, but that’s what I’m calling it) and Sun Bowls, not much. While Duke has won three bowl games, they beat a 6-6 Indiana team, Northern Illinois and a Rutgers team with an interim coach. Hardly the stuff of football lore. Duke’s best bowl win is against an Indiana team that was 2-6 in the Big Ten. The coach from that team is no longer there. The phrase “Not great, Bob” comes to mind.

I want Duke to be better next season, but I’m not unrealistic. The schedule looks tough (and we’ll have more on that later) and I don’t see how the Blue Devils do much better than they did this season. There are uncertainties at quarterback and in the kicking game. With changes at these critical positions, what can we really expect?

After the 2018 season, I told a friend that Duke was going to range somewhere between 4 wins at worst and 8 wins at best. Unless Duke really shakes up its offensive system, we shouldn’t expect much more than what Duke did this year. While the Blue Devils didn’t make a bowl, they continued the trend of more of the mediocre same.

Let’s hope for some improvement next year and that Coach Cutcliffe takes the team to new heights. Go Duke!

Duke versus Miami – What to Expect

Duke’s football season is approaching what will hopefully be a merciful end on Saturday at Wallace Wade. The Blue Devils host Miami for what is almost certainly the team’s final game of the season (there is a technical chance that Duke could make a bowl with win and a 5-7 record). So, what can we expect? The odds say a Duke loss and a Miami victory (ESPN gives the Hurricanes a 67%+ chance to win).

Breaking it down in more detail, expect turnovers. Quentin Harris has thrown 11 interceptions and turned the ball over through fumbles on a consistent basis. This is why he has an abysmal quarterback rating of 50.1. Were the turnovers not enough, you should keep an eye out for missed tackles. Michael Carter talked about this recently and 247 sports noted that one of Duke’s best players, Marquis Waters, leads the team with 18.

You can also expect predictable play-calling. I’m not going to rehash those issues here (it’s Thanksgiving and I have to work tomorrow, so I don’t have time to get that angry before bed). There are likely to be a lot of runs up the middle, run-pass-options without Harris keeping the ball and throwing WR screens on first down. Much of this is likely designed to minimize Harris turning the ball over. It hasn’t worked so far, but I suppose it could be worse.

Duke’s defense, assuming it hasn’t already quit, will likely play hard on the first few series and run out of gas. This is the result of the inability of the offense to do much of anything. Drives stall out and the defense has to rush back on the field without any rest. Even when the Blue Devils do gain yards, they rarely put the ball in the end zone. While the kicking teams have come on strong of late, that won’t win a game on its own.

To conclude, expect a Miami win and a six straight loss for Duke.

Duke Lost to Wake Forest … Again

It was a rough Saturday night for Duke football fans. While not as bad as last year’s implosion against Wake, it was painful to watch. The game followed a generally predictable script. The defense played well, the offense couldn’t convert opportunities and, despite two outstanding kick returns and a good punt return, Duke lost. Turnovers and miscues doomed the team. The defense couldn’t carry the team and, for the fifth straight game, Duke lost. The obvious question is why.

There is no shortage of answers. Poor play-calling early hurt (why go shotgun on 4th-and-1 instead of lining up under center?) as did a number of fumbles. Quentin Harris continued to miss receivers and took the air out of the team when he threw an interception to the very open Aaron Young. And while the defense played well, the obsession with trying to strip the ball instead of tackling resulted in a lot of yards after contact.

So, what is next for Duke football? The team is now 4-7 after a great 4-2 start with a beautiful dismantling of a Virginia Tech team that is now ranked serving as the lone bright spot of a dismal season. Since that game, Duke has had only two good offensive performances – scoring 30 points in a loss to Pittsburgh and 41 points in a win against Georgia Tech. Outside of that, Duke has put up the following lackluster outputs – 14 points against Virginia, 17 points against Carolina (thanks in large part to that idiotic jump pass call), 7 points against Notre Dame and an inexcusable 6 points against lowly Syracuse. While Duke managed to score 27 against Wake, 14 of those were thanks to kick returns by Damond Philyaw-Johnson. Take away AJ Reed’s field goals and Duke only managed one offensive touchdown.

While a bowl game is still technically possible, this team is rudderless. The offense is an unmitigated disaster. Zac Roper’s calls are predictable and ineffective. Head coach David Cutcliffe’s loyalty is commendable, but the decision to stick with Harris, a senior, instead of playing Chris Katrenick is hard to understand. Katrenick will be at Duke next year. Harris will not. The fact that the team has not ditched the tempo system in favor of a huddle to give the defense a breather is equally frustrating. The play-calling needs to change and should have weeks ago. While the defense has given up a lot of points, this is the best and most talented unit in decades. It’s going to waste. And while Harris was never meant to be the starting quarterback (Daniel Jones left early, Gunnar Holmberg got hurt and Jack Sears decommitted), this team has had chances to win close games. Better coaching and clock management (remember the disastrous end of the first half against Notre Dame) wins some of those games.

The loss to Wake confirmed that the season is lost. While it hadn’t been in doubt for weeks, it was still painful to see. Regardless of what happens against Miami, the real question Duke football has to answer is “What do we do next season”? We’ll see if Duke’s athletic director, Kevin White, asks Cutcliffe that and, if so, what the response is.

Tell us your thoughts in the comments.