Category: Game Previews

After a heartbreaking loss against Kansas to close out non-conference play, Duke takes on UVA at home this Saturday. The game starts at 7:30 p.m., weather permitting, and the first conference game of the Elko Era will be a night game at Wallace Wade. Is there a better way to kick things off? Other than with a win, I mean. But, back to the point of this post. What can we expect from the Blue Devils in this game?

Just as the Jayhawks were a tough test and a formidable opponent, the Cavaliers will not be an easy out for Duke. While UVA may be a mediocre 2-2 on the season, they still have Brennan Armstrong at quarterback who, no matter what he’s done so far this season, remains capable of lighting up the scoreboard at any moment. New coach Tony Elliott hasn’t been all the Cavaliers have hoped for offensively, but he has sure turned around the defense. As Jim Sumner pointed out in his latest post, it appears that the UVA defense is being coached by a modern-day equivalent of Julius Caesar, Agrippa, Hannibal and Alexander. This is almost certainly the best defense the Blue Devils have faced all season. As of the time that I last checked today, UVA is ranked 51st in total defense and gives up an average of 350 yards per game. That’s well ahead of 94th ranked Kansas. Beating this team would be a real statement win for Duke.

To win this game, the Blue Devils will need to be more balanced than they were last week against the Jayhawks. We will need to see more running the ball and better communication and execution defensively. We can’t see another game with a host of missed tackles and poor execution on critical downs which allow drives to continue. That, of course, does nothing more than wear the defense down. The critical down deficiencies have been present against both Northwestern and Kansas this season to a point that it is almost a worrisome trend. Coach Elko and his staff will have to find a way to stop UVA on 3rd and 4th down in order to get a win.

Can Duke win? Recent history would say no. The Blue Devils have not beaten the Cavaliers since 2014. This is a long losing streak that you can bet Duke is ready to break. And this team can do it. The defense plays well enough to keep the team in the game and the offense is not getting overwhelmed by the moment. The quarterback, receivers and offensive line are working together and, with the exception of last week, the running game has been very good. If the defense can be opportunistic, smart and execute on critical downs, the Bull City Boys can come away with a win Saturday night. And hopefully it will not be a rainy Saturday night because I do not want to spend about 6 hours in the car roundtrip to get rained on.

Now, as I have mentioned on Twitter a few times, I am trying to change my brand a little bit. During the Cutcliffe Era, I developed a reputation as a bitter truth teller who would point out how bad the program was as opposed to being a stan account. Now, though, it seems that the Elko Era is full of hope, promise and possibility. Accordingly, I don’t think that continuing to be a sarcastic, bitter old man is necessarily the brand for me at this time. So, I’m going to try something a little different with game previews going forward. I hope you all enjoy this. And if it doesn’t work, I’ll just revert back to being a grumpy, bitter old man.

With a win Saturday, Duke can accomplish the following feats:

Number 1 – Beat UVA for the first time since 2014. That is a long losing streak that I think we all want to see come to end. Hopefully, we will see it end and we’ll get a little payback for all those bad losses we had in 2019 (48-14) and 2021 (48-0).

Number 2 – Get a conference win for the first time in the last 13 games. The last time the Blue Devils got an ACC win was all the way back in 2020 against Syracuse in what was, at best, an ugly win.

Number 3 – Coach Elko can guarantee no worse than four wins and one conference win on the season. This would have him on par with what Coaches Cutcliffe and Wilson did during their first seasons, ahead of Coach Franks during his first season, better than Coach Roof during his first full season as head coach and close to the performance of Coach Spurrier during his first season when he went 5-6.

Number 4 – Remain hot. We’re all used to the Blue Devils starting hot and cooling off once ACC play hits. Do I need to recount all the times this happened? Probably not, but I will anyway – 2015 (started 6-1 and finished 8-5), 2017 (started 4-0 and finished 7-6), 2018 (started 5-1 and finished 8-5) and 2019 (started 4-2 and finished 5-7).

So, with all of this in mind, who will win on Saturday and by what margin? For that, let’s start with our guest picker Matt Barbee. He is taking Duke over UVA by a score of 34-21. And, before you ask, I intend to make guest picks a recurring segment going forward. I hope you like hearing from other people and, since I’m awful at picking scores, maybe you can hear from someone who can get it right once in a while.

Do I also have the Blue Devils winning? Yes I do, Other Barry, yes I do. Based on the Cavaliers’ offensive performance over the season, I don’t see UVA putting up a lot of points. But given the strength of the Cavaliers’ defense, I see the game being a close one. All told, I am taking Duke over UVA by a score of 31-24. This will be a close one, but one that I think the Blue Devils will win.

And that’s it for the game recap. Let me know what you think about what I think in the comments or on Twitter.

Go Duke!

It’s a situation that not many saw coming at the start of the season, but here we are – an undefeated Duke team will take on an undefeated Kansas team in Lawrence on Saturday at 12 EST. This should be a real, real fun game. Beyond the fact that both teams are undefeated, this will be the game that tells us where the Blue Devils are as they head into conference play. And if Duke can get a win on the road against what looks like a pretty good Jayhawks team, we may well be talking about the Blue Devils going bowling (more on that below).

Now, before we get into the game preview, I want to say something about my approach to this season which I would describe as a copious amount of cautious, cautious optimism. I’ve seen too many Duke teams start hot and then fall apart once conference play hits. Accordingly, I resolved this season to be patient, not get sucked in and wait before making snap judgments. I’m not the one to take a stan approach to this team. Look, you all know I’m a fan – I do this in my spare time and make no money off of it, so you know I support this team – but I am a realistic fan. Dour realism is my brand and I’m sticking to it.

But I do want to say this – I believe in this team. I believe that this team can win enough games to get to a bowl. So, what should we expect on Saturday? Here are my thoughts:

No. 1 – Lots of running the ball. Lots of it. Kansas, as I noted in my NCA&T recap, can run the ball. The Jayhawks ran for 200 yards against West Virginia and followed it up with 280 against Houston. Read that again – 280 against Houston. That’s a lot. Well, Duke can run the ball, too. Over their first three games, the Blue Devils put up 172, 221 and 222 yards, respectively. And I expect that trend to continue on Saturday. The critical issue in the game will be which team can run the ball the best on offense and which team can do the best to stop the run defensively.

No. 2 – A lot of points. A Big 12 team is probably all we need to say about Kansas and its ability to score. But what about Duke? This team has been playing well offensively over the first three weeks. 30 points in Week 1, 31 in Week Two and 49 last week. And last year’s 52-33 thrill fest? Well, that’s a recipe for an over-under of 64.5 (I’d take the over on that, but I am trash at betting).

No. 3 – Explosive plays. Steve Wiseman pointed out that both teams have guys who can make plays. When you look at the ability of both running games, which includes the quarterbacks, you have to expect to see a number of plays for twenty or more yards. Let’s just hope we see the Blue Devils make a few more than the Jayhawks on Saturday. And, given the number of points the opposing team has given up in its last two games, and the amount of passing yards given up, I expect to see some big runs, long passing routes and an exciting clash of two talented offenses.

No. 4 – Two teams with a lot to prove. For Duke, we know that this team is trying to get out of the shadow of 2.5 lousy seasons. But we’ll come back to that later. For Kansas, this game likely means a lot more than shrugging off a few awful seasons given the history of the program. The Jayhawks have been a perennial doormat for a long, long time. Throughout my life, Kansas has only been to seven bowl games (I’m 41 folks!). Most of those took place during Mark Mangino’s tenure as head coach. Since that tenure ended? Ten last place finishes in conference. Let me repeated that – ten. That’s. A. Lot. At 3-0 with a chance to beat a p5 school, you can bet this team is going to come out ready to prove something.

But, to conclude my point about two teams having a lot to prove, I want to note that the Blue Devils have a lot to gain from this win. A. Lot. Getting to 4-0 would leave this team just two wins away from a bowl. And when you look at Duke’s conference schedule, you have to think that a bowl game is certainly possible (which is hard to believe given how bad of a season most folks expected for the team). The Blue Devils have very winnable games against Georgia Tech and Boston College. Duke also has a stretch of games that could go either way against UVA, UNC and Virginia Tech (I consider these either way games as opposed to very winnable based on the recent history between the Blue Devils and these teams). Looking at those five games I listed, and I know the team can’t look ahead, but we can and I will, a bowl game isn’t out of the question. Getting a road win against a Big 12 game will go a long, long way to locking up bowl eligibility. Which takes us to …

No. 5 – An exciting game. I’m not sure how this game will play out, but I get the sense it will be an offensive slugfest between the two teams. Duke gave up points against Northwestern and almost let the game slip away at the end. The Jayhawks have also given up a lot of points the last two weeks. While there is a lot we don’t know about this Blue Devils defense given the level of competition in weeks one and three, we do know that the Kansas defense can give up points. So, regardless of the outcome, I think it’s going to be exciting to watch. And win or lose, this should be a fun game. I say that because this Duke team seems to be the type to go out, compete and enjoy the moment. These guys don’t appear to be the type to get overwhelmed by the moment.

Now, while I believe in this team, I’m not taking the Blue Devils to win. I’m going to go with the Jayhawks. Here are my reasons why –

No. 1 – Kansas has played, and beaten, better competition. No knock on who Duke has played, but beating West Virginia and Houston says a little bit more than beating a bad Temple team, NCA&T and what is looking like a not good Northwestern team that just lost to a previously winless Southern Illinois team.

No. 2 – Kicking team woes. Given the high-octane nature of these two offenses, this is the kind of game that could come down to field goals. Based on what we’ve seen so far from the Blue Devils in the kicking game, I get a sense that a few missed field goals will likely tilt the game towards the Jayhawks. This game feels like one that will be close for a long time and may favor Kansas late. But the opposing kicker hasn’t been lights out in his career, either, so the boys from the Bull City may be on equal footing with the guys from Lawrence in this respect.

No. 3 – I have to pick someone. Look, in all honesty, I view this game as a toss-up. It could easily go either way. What I like about this Duke team is that they play confident, fast and with a belief in the coaching staff and one another. That’s a recipe for victory in games that, all things being equal, a team probably shouldn’t win. Based on what we’ve seen so far, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Blue Devils win this game. Coach Elko talked about being smart with a tempo offense to help the defense and I would expect that to continue on Saturday in order to keep the defense fresh and keep the opposing offense off the field. If Duke can do that on Saturday, it shouldn’t shock anyone to see them come away with a win and get to 4-0. This is a hard one for me to pick, so while I’m taking the Jayhawks, I view this game as a pure toss-up.

Now, with that all out of the way, I’m going with Kansas to eek out a win by a score of 45-34 thanks to some late scores. As I mentioned above, I get the sense that we’ll miss a few field goals and it will come back to haunt us. But, regardless of the outcome, if the Blue Devils lose this game and end non-conference play at 3-1, we should all be optimistic about a bowl game. This team has games against Georgia Tech, UVA, BC, UNC and VT coming up which means there’s a good chance to get to six wins and a bowl. And I think that this team can do that.

So, that’s it for the game preview. Let me know what you think about what I think in the comments or on Twitter.

Go Duke!

Duke is off to a hot 2-0 start with wins against Temple and Northwestern. While the Blue Devils have been plagued by inconsistencies so far, Saturday night provides a chance for Duke to tighten up a few things before Kansas and conference play. After reading a lot from other folks who cover the Blue Devils, namely Jim Sumner and Steve Wiseman, I get the sense that Duke is going to want to make a statement with this win. Sure, beating the Aggies may be looked down upon as nothing more than a win against an FCS team, but keep in mind what happened last season – A&T dominated the Blue Devils during the first half. You can bet Duke remembers that ugly outing and you can bet this team wants to show that was a fluke.

So, what should we expect? Well, the Aggies are historically well-coached – this team went 10-2 and 9-3 in 2018 and 2019. However, they are in the midst of a rough stretch since moving to the Big South. After taking a year off due to COVID, the Aggies went 5-6 in 2021 and are off to a sluggish 0-2 start. One of those losses was to NCCU and the other was to North Dakota State (which you can’t really call a bad loss because NDSU is real, real good). And those losses weren’t close, either. The Aggies lost 28-13 and 43-3. Given that, it’s fair to say that the Aggies aren’t going to match up well on Saturday.

So, the issue isn’t really going to be what the Aggies can do – the issue is what the Blue Devils will do. Based on recent performances and last season’s game, I expect that Duke will come out firing on all cylinders and will put up a lot of points. I also expect this defense to come out extra aggressive after getting torched down the stretch by Northwestern. These guys will be motivated to show that half was an aberration. Look for the Blue Devils to come out angry and determined to prove something. For P5 teams to be good, and to be taken seriously, they have to put up a large margin of victory against FCS competition. This team will want to do just that.

So, to conclude, what do I expect from Duke on Saturday night? I expect them to try and make a statement win over the Aggies. And, given the nature of the Aggies’ 0-2 start, I expect our guys to win by a comfortable margin. How comfortable? Well, I’m taking the Blue Devils 52-10. If last year’s team can win 45-17, I think this team can do more. So, don’t let me down guys. Go out there, put up 52 and allow me to finally, finally get a score prediction right.

Let me know what you think about what I think in the comments or on Twitter.

Go Duke!

The first road game of the Elko Era will see Duke travel to Ryan Field to face off against Northwestern this Saturday. Both teams are coming off of wins – the Wildcats beat Nebraska and the Blue Devils soundly defeated Temple. There are a lot of new faces for a Duke team that finds itself fully energized after a big win in Coach Elko’s first game. Likewise, there are a lot of Wildcats who are pumped up after a conference win to start the season. At this point in the year, I’d like to be talking about the specifics of each position and which team has the edge, but I don’t think that we are in a position to do that just yet because, as discussed in more detail below, there’s still a lot we don’t know about this Duke team. But while we don’t yet know a lot about the Blue Devils, we know a little more about the Wildcats from a historical perspective, although it’s still early in the season, so I feel confident resurrecting the trends from last season to discuss the upcoming game. With that in mind, let’s get to it.

Northwestern:

A win and time to prepare. As has been pre-ordained by the Football Gods, a Nebraska team coached by Scott Frost lost a close game by three points. This happened in Week Zero (what a [expletive deleted] stupid name for opening week) in Ireland against Northwestern (the game was held in Ireland because the Big Ten has its eyes on a few Irish teams for the next round of expansion).

While beating Nebraska may not mean much, Frost is an abysmal 16-30 in Lincoln, keep in mind that a lot of those 30 losses have been close ones. The fact that Coach Fitzgerald got a win against a P5 team is a big deal, and the fact that he got it against a team that knows how to keep itself in a game is an even bigger deal, especially after last season’s misery come to life that was 2021’s 3-9 outing. More important, the Wildcats didn’t play in Week 1 (which should be Week Two) and has an extra week of preparation coming into the matchup with Duke. That’s big. Coach Fitzgerald doesn’t have a winning record at a historically not that great of a football school because he’s an idiot. He knows what he’s doing, especially with time to prepare. That additional week should help the Wildcats. As should …

Playing at home. Northwestern gets the advantage of playing at home. That’s big. This team has a lot to prove after last season, and there’s nothing like playing at home in front of your fans and fellow students to give you that extra buzz for a win.

Bouncing back. In looking at Northwestern to draft this post, I noticed something interesting about the Fitzgerald Era. Take a look

The Wildcats have regularly bounced back from losing seasons since 2006. In fact, this program has only had back-to-back losing seasons once under Coach Fitzgerald. That was in 2013-2014 when both teams went 5-7. Other than that, Northwestern has always gone from losing to winning, and often to a bowl game. Also, this program has gone from winning season to losing season every year since 2018. If that trend holds, look for a big year from the Wildcats (which probably means a win on Saturday).

Those are the trends that I considered important for the opponent. What about for our guys?

Duke:

Confidence and good vibes. Look, this goes a long, long way towards a good season. Anyone who knows anything about football knows that. Also, those of you who listen to the podcast know that confidence can take you a long way towards your goal. These Blue Devils are confident. They love their coach, they have a lot of (good) energy and they really, really believe they can win games and do something special. Every player I’ve spoken with and everyone close to the program I’ve spoken with has commented on that. It’s a big deal and it’s important. Given that, our boys from Durham have something important on their side heading into Saturday’s game.

A lot to prove. This program has a long ways to go before it’s relevant. While beating Temple is nice, dominating a bad Owls team won’t do much when it comes to rankings and street cred. Now, beating a Big Ten team on the road? That’s another story. Further, the pressure isn’t on Duke coming into this game. They are on the road and are in game two of the Elko Era – the opponent is at home and favored to win. The pressure is on the home team, not the road team. This combination of factors could give the Blue Devils a significant advantage on Saturday.

A lot we don’t know. One of my biggest concerns heading into this season is the lack of depth and the secondary. We really don’t know how good this secondary is because the game last Saturday didn’t tell us much. Temple’s play-calling was horrendous, which is why you typically don’t promote RB coaches all the way to the HC spot, so we can’t say what the secondary will do against a team that is better than the Owls. If the secondary holds up, this could be a fun, fun game.

We also don’t know how good our staff is, particularly Coach Elko. In my game preview for the Northwestern game last season, I compared the two head coaches for that game. Unsurprisingly, I went with Coach Fitzgerald as the better coach. I have to do that by default this time because Coach Elko only has one game as a head coach under him. There’s still a lot about Coach Elko that we don’t know and won’t know until some time passes. Now, that lack of a track record and game film isn’t necessarily a bad thing. It can be used to the advantage of the new coach because tendencies and habits aren’t known by the opposing team. Let’s hope that occurs on Saturday.

There are a lot of other things that I could discuss in regard to what we don’t know. Our quarterback is untested, but confident, and our running backs have gone from reserves to a back-by-committee. There’s a lot more to get into here, but let’s just say that there’s a lot we don’t know about this team and we’ll have to wait until about midway through the season, or longer, to know more.

Head-to-head. There’s one final trend I’d like to bring up. Duke is 11-10 all-time against the Wildcats and has won the last three. Two of those wins came when Daniel Jones was under center and a third came last season when the Wildcats almost pulled out a win after a quarterback change. That game was close and Northwestern was very, very close to getting the win. Based on that, and while I hate to say it, I think the Wildcats are due to get a win. I see them pulling it out against the Blue Devils and taking home a 30-24 win. Again, I stink at score predictions, so don’t use my score prediction to place bets.

While I may be taking Duke to lose, I think that the Blue Devils will play a tough, physical and competitive game. It wouldn’t surprise me if they pull out a win, but, given what I’ve looked at, I have to go with Northwestern in this one. But, hey, I was wrong about the margin of victory last week, so I’m hoping I’ll be wrong again.

Why am I taking the Wildcats? Well, I think that Jim Sumner’s recent article discussed it well. Northwestern was six yards short of two backs running for 100 yards each against Nebraska. Their quarterback, a USC Gamecocks transfer, tossed the ball to nine receivers for a total of 314 yards. That’s against Big Ten competition (which I think is, to some extent, overrated, but it’s still more than what Duke faced last week). Look, I like what I saw from the Blue Devils in Week One, but I’m not betting the farm on this team just yet.

Let me know what you think about what I think in the comments or on Twitter.

Go Duke!