Category: State of the Program

2021 Game Recap – Duke Lost to Virginia Tech

In my game preview, I picked Duke to win. Then, shortly before the game started, I learned that Gunnar Holmberg wasn’t going to start. I told the guys I went to the game with I was switching my pick and taking VT to win. The three of us all shared the same assessment – the Blue Devils would lose a close game against a bad VT team. We were half right, but way, way wrong. This one turned into yet another blowout conference loss; and it was a bad loss to a bad team led by a coach that is going to get fired at the send of the season. To be clear, I’m referring to Tech, but the assessment about a bad team with a coach on his way out could apply to Duke.

It was fun till it started.

The Blue Devils lost 48-17 against a hapless Hokie crew. So, let’s get to Five Things followed by a little Duke history lesson.

Five Things I liked:

  1. I met Stanley Monk and the Hard Hat Guys. That was cool.
  2. Jordan Moore played well in relief. But I have more on the quarterback situation in what I didn’t like.
  3. I got Porter Wilson’s attention coming out of the tunnel after the half when I yelled “Go Duke!”. He looked up, I yelled “Go Duke!” again and he nodded. Then we became best friends. We’re going to hang out after the season and he’ll teach me how to avoid injury from an official’s penalty flag. (Okay, only the first part of that happened. The rest of it is just a dream. But you keep punting, you crazy diamond.)
  4. I’m all tapped out.

Five Things I didn’t like:

  1. Mataeo didn’t get enough touches. The three of us couldn’t figure out why Mataeo didn’t get the ball 30+ times. One of us was a VT fan, so he was fine with it, but it didn’t make sense to anyone. VT probably loved it, especially when nothing was done to give the QB a chance to succeed. Which brings me to the next thing I didn’t like …
  2. We didn’t let Riley Leonard throw the ball down the field. He clearly had single read plays and we didn’t adjust from that. VT stacked the box and there were throws to the right on a quick slant that we didn’t take advantage of. Bad. Play. Calling. Take pressure off of the OL, give your RB and QB opportunities and force VT to get out of its comfort zone.
  3. And speaking of bad play calling, how do we get an interception at the VT 12 yard line and not give Mataeo the ball one time? Bring in Moore to run? OK, well that’s stupid because everyone knew what was coming. Mataeo is one of the best backs in the conference. He should have gotten the ball in that situation. We also needed to put in Diamont at WR (and possibly Moore, too, given how fast he is), because our WRs are not great at getting separation. We need to be creative, but, just like our play calls are bad, our utilization of talent on offense is subpar. Fortune, as they say, favors the bold. And whatever the heck we’re doing isn’t bold. Well, perhaps it is in its stubborn commitment to doing things that don’t work, but I’m not sure that’s what Caesar meant.
  4. Bad quarterback management. When Gunnar went down, we should have been ready to turn to Luca who spent last year learning the system. Instead, we turned to true freshmen. And the results spoke for themselves. Leonard looked uncomfortable, missed open receivers by throwing low and wide and generally looked like he wasn’t ready for the moment. WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING BECAUSE HE’S A TRUE FRESHMAN AT A DEVELOPMENTAL PROGRAM. WHY PUT HIM OUT THERE? It’s particularly hard to understand given how well Moore looked when he got into the game. A lot of this may have been that the staff helped him by doing smart things (finally) and letting him throw down the field. Yesterday was the predictable result of terrible QB room management. It’s just another reason Jeff Faris and David Cutcliffe will have a lot to answer for at the end of the year.
  5. The defense. We got zero pressure on the quarterback. We gave up over 500 yards to a bad VT team. The defense has been terrible all season in conference. But we just keep doing the same thing. This is a result of scheme and not putting the right players on the field together. Which all goes back to coaching. All of it. It’s hard to say that these folks deserve another chance given how poorly they’re performing.

Watching the Blue Devils lose another conference game in blowout fashion was painful. Yesterday seemed a lot like “Same old Duke football.” Bad situational management, an early missed field goal and no creativity after the first drive. It reminded me of all those Franks and Roof years where there would be one good drive to start the game and that was it. And, speaking of which, tell me which conference season you would prefer if you had to choose.

Option 1:

Option 2:

Option 3:

If you chose Option 1, you chose Carl Franks’ 2002 season. That was the one before he got fired during the season. If you chose Option 2, you chose Ted Roof’s 2006 season. That was his next to last season as the Blue Devils’ head coach. If you chose Option 3, then you’re one of the last people who doesn’t think Duke needs a new head coach (you chose this season). And, if you do think that, I would appreciate you telling me why. No changes are being made on offense or defense, the team continues to be haunted by the same problems every week and there is zero life on the sidelines. This team looks dead in the water. Like I said previously, it’s time for a change.

This program is right back where it was when the two coaches who are generally considered the worst in its history (and possibly some of the worst in college football history) were told it was time to leave. The current coach isn’t doing any better than those two did at the end of their tenures. In 2019, Cut went 3-5 in conference. Last year, he managed an abysmal 1-9. And now? We’re on track for a winless conference record and seven straight losses after a 3-1 start. (So, maybe last year wasn’t all on COVID?) If football matters in Durham, the trends tell you all you need to know about what has to happen after this team concludes its season at home against Miami on November 27.

All that said, I won’t stop rooting for the Blue Devils. Let me know what you think about what I think below.

Go Duke!

2021 Game Recap – Cut the Cord

I’m going to skip the recap of yesterday’s fourth straight painful loss and get right to what needs to be said. Sorry if you were looking forward to Five Things, but now isn’t the time for that. (We did record a jam session yesterday which I will try to post tonight.)

During yesterday’s game, I said I on Twitter that I would not hold back in my game recap. Here’s what I said:

That’s the tweet!

I don’t remember what specifically caused me to lose my patience and self-control, but it’s about time I come out and say what I’ve been hinting at all season. So, as promised, here it is – it is time for Duke football to move on from David Cutcliffe. The Blue Devils need a new coach. We can appreciate all that David Cutcliffe did from 2008 until 2018 while recognizing that he’s holding Duke back and an impediment to winning. I’ve been talking about trends all season and I’ve been doing it for a reason – once the Blue Devils lost to Charlotte, I had a sense that Cutcliffe wouldn’t fix the problems that had been haunting this team since 2018-ish and we’d see a repeat of what we’ve seen since 2019. That premonition turned out to be accurate when North Carolina absolutely demolished Duke – Cutcliffe won’t make changes. He won’t make adjustments. He won’t adapt to the changing football landscape. And the results speak for themselves – blowout loss after blowout loss. It’s pathetic. We’re every bit as bad as we were when Cutcliffe came to Durham.

If the university cares about football, I don’t know how this can be allowed to continue. I’ve watched the Blue Devils regularly since the 1990s, I have a vague memory of knowing that Duke did well real during Spurrier’s last season, so I can say this with a good deal of authority – this is one of the worst teams I’ve ever watched. This Blue Devils team is just bad. There’s no way around it. This Duke team is getting beat, manhandled and pushed around just like all those teams under Franks and Roof did.

The key difference, though, is this team has a lot more talent than those bad Goldsmith, Franks and Roof teams that went winless. Those teams were often younger, smaller and slower than the other team at every position. That isn’t the case here – our OL and DL can match up with their opposition from a size perspective and the corners play well in coverage (aside from constantly being left alone in single coverage which just about every corner is going to get beat on). We have a good running back, a real good one, and a quarterback who can complete a pass and run (but the staff doesn’t let him, because, you know, idiocy). There is absolutely no excuse for the failure of this offensive staff to put points on the board and to give up 30+ each week.

So, why is it happening? Well, I guess we will do Five Things after all and put the blame where it belongs – on the head coach. Here are Five Things that are wrong with the program right now:

  1. Cut promotes people based on time served, not on merit. Zac Roper and Jeff Faris are the perfect examples of bad promotions. Why do we have a former special teams coordinator and a walk-on safety running our offense instead of a former QB or a WR? It’s a good question without a good answer. When you’re on a team or part of a business, and a university football program is a business, you have to produce. Cut has seemed content since 2015 to let people advance based on time served as opposed to merit and performance. That’s a terrible way to run a business. Produce or go home. If results aren’t expected and demanded, you start to slip. Then you fall. That’s what’s happening now. We are falling right into adversity.
  2. Cut doesn’t hold people accountable (and this is going to bleed into numbers three and four, because there’s a lot to unpack here). How in the world Jeff Faris still has a job after UNC, UVA and Wake is beyond me. His game management yesterday was terrible. I don’t want to go into the bad plays, but what he’s doing isn’t working. But it isn’t entirely on him, it’s an extension of what happened when Zac Roper ran the offense. And it only took wasting a generational talent at quarterback followed by a jump pass that cost Duke a bowl game to make a change there. Wasting talent is what happens when you don’t hold your staff accountable. Before I leave this point, am I the only one who has noticed that Roper seems to be hovering around Cut all throughout the game? Does he still have some involvement in the offense? If so, why? Look, Faris may be a good person and a nice guy, but, like Donny in The Big Lebowski, he’s out of his element.
  3. The defensive scheme has been figured out. We’ve been in a 4-2-5 for years. You have gaps because you don’t have a third LB to fill them. Teams know where those gaps are and run plays to force the LB to come in on runs or drop into coverage on a WR on pass plays. They then go to where the LB isn’t (or just heave it on single coverage). The result – big plays and blowouts. Just like Faris shouldn’t be running the offense, Matt Guerrieri isn’t doing a good job. We keep getting burned on the same plays we’ve gotten burned on since 2015. We also can’t disguise our blitzes. And we don’t adapt. Again, Guerrieri may be a nice guy, but his defense is giving up a lot of points. Despite that, we keep seeing the same press coverage week after week. I’ve had enough. We need to make a change.
  4. We’re bad at situational football. I won’t go into the poor use of timeouts and bad use of the Moore package all season, but I will say that the kicking teams yesterday was the worst I’ve seen them. If we brought Scott Boylan in to return kicks, why are we letting Stinson return kicks from the end zone to put us in worse field position? Why not take the touchback? And running backwards on a return (I can’t remember if Stinson did that or not, but it happened)? What in the world is going on? We supposedly have fast players, why not let them have a shot? No knock on Stinson, but there are types of law I don’t practice because those areas don’t mesh well with what I do on a day-to-day basis and because I don’t have enough experience in those areas to do them comfortably. Same here with Stinson – it just isn’t his thing. The staff has to do a better job of coaching players on when to return and has to put players in situations to make plays. I’m not seeing a lot of that from the kicking teams. And, again, it only took until the eighth game of the season for the staff to put someone else back there. You guys watch film all week and practice this stuff, but you’re just now figuring it out?
  5. No energy. I have some comments here that could be deemed criticisms of the players. That isn’t the case – pay close attention and you’ll see that. Cut sure doesn’t seem to care on the sidelines. He looks disinterested and not into the game. The team seems to be taking a lead from that because they don’t look like they care on the sidelines, either. I think it’s pretty obvious that Cut has lost the team and the players are going through the motions as a result. But part of why I said that this team is one of the worst to watch is because of the apparent lack of leadership from the players. No one is acting like Koby Quansah, Carlos Wray or Max McCaffrey would when things got tough. As rough as some of those Goldsmith seasons were, the players would fight and compete. They just didn’t have the depth to get more wins. This team wasn’t going to be much better than 4-8, but when you have a chance to get to 5 wins early on, you have to dig deep and come out angry. You have to demand accountability from your teammates and lead by example. I haven’t seen that from the coach or the team this season. Now, I’m not pinning this on the players. This is a reflection of a poor culture that Cut has let take hold. He’s accountable for this. But I will say that the players have to start leading around Cut and take control of this. I don’t see these guys snapping a six game losing streak like we saw happen in 2017. This is a culture problem and it has to change.

There’s no way Ms. King can bring Cut back next season. Cut won’t do what it takes to fix the program. The trends show he isn’t capable of it. If it were up to me, I’d go ahead and cut the cord now and name Boyette or Frey interim coach. Boyette has had a lot of success with RBs over the years and Frey’s OL has been a bright spot in an otherwise disappointing season. It’s been time for a change for a good while now, and yesterday took away any reason to give Cut more time. Thanks for all you’ve done coach, but it’s time for someone else to lead the Blue Devils. I hope you enjoy retirement and come back to Durham often. I’ll remember the good years and won’t fixate on what happened at the end of your time as head coach. Again, I appreciate all you’ve done, but it’s time for a change.

Let me know what you think about what I think in the comments or on Twitter.

Go Duke!

2021 State of the Program – Just Past Midseason Report

This has been a tale of many seasons for Duke. 2021 started poorly, very poorly, with a home loss to Charlotte. While many of us became concerned that loss would cost the Blue Devils bowl eligibility, a three game winning streak gave us hope that this team could squeak out a few wins here and there over the remaining eight and return to the postseason for the first time since 2018. But three straight conference losses have most of us thinking that a bowl just isn’t going to happen. When a team loses by more than 30 to its biggest rival and gets shut out, while giving up almost 50, to another division opponent, you don’t expect to go to a bowl. Add on another blown lead late against Georgia Tech, and there isn’t much reason for optimism.

So, what are we to make of team after seven games? Well, despite the 3-4 record, I’d argue that this team has a solid core. Let’s take a look at the offense first.

If I had to give out grades for each position, the running back gets an A+. The QB gets an A- (the low score is the result of the coaching staff using the QB poorly which I detail below). The offensive line gets a B+. Add in a decent receiving corps (we don’t have breakaway speed, hence the “decent” characterization), and any objective view of the offense has to be generally positive. I realize I didn’t give the receivers a grade. In lieu of letters, this unit gets a “P” for “Pass”. That isn’t a pun – I’m grading the receivers on a pass / no pass scale.

The defense, too, has improved during the season, particularly the defensive line. Despite a propensity to give up a lot of points (and there isn’t a way to sugarcoat that), this is an up-and-coming group that would accomplish more but for the fact that we remain in a 4-2-5 that everyone has figured out at this point. Could we try something different? Cutcliffe has been at the school for more than a decade, so why don’t we have more linebackers? How about we do something with three linemen and more safeties? Why not a 3-3-5? Anyway, I digress. Back to my point – I like a lot of the individual components on the defense, but this unit gives up way too many points. I don’t think it’s because the players are doing anything poorly, it’s just that the defense seems to be where the OL was last year – figuring itself out. We’re a developmental program. It happens.

As for the kicking teams, we have the best punter in the country. We have a good kicker, but Cut mismanaged the situation at UVA and cost us points. Seems like he probably lost the team with that. I don’t know for a fact that he lost the team, but they sure didn’t look the same after the missed field goal. Maybe I’m an idiot, but I can’t understand putting in a left-footed kicker to kick from the left hash. College football is all about emotion and momentum, and Cut flushed both down the toilet with that call.

If you take a look at the preceding paragraphs, you’re probably trying to comprehend how Duke managed to lose two close games to Charlotte and Georgia Tech and get blown out by UNC and UVA. Well, you’re not the only one. This isn’t like the Franks and Roof days where there was a lack of depth and talent. This team has enough talent that it should be able to be average enough to get six wins. So, why does this team look so bad? Why are we continuing to get blown out in conference game after conference game?

The only answer I have is coaching. This staff just isn’t getting much out of the players. I can’t say that the players aren’t trying to win every play or putting in the work because, unlike last year, it looks like they are doing everything they can to get a win each week (UVA game aside). Not counting my complaint about Cut benching Charlie Ham, here are Five Things that remain a problem for this team and have been since last season (if not longer):

  1. Penalties. We get penalized way, way too much. My research has us at SEVEN penalties per game. That’s abysmal. And it screams a lack of discipline.
  2. A mobile quarterback who isn’t running the ball. Why did we stop running Gunnar after the Kansas game? I get that you don’t want him to get hurt, but the yardage is there. Let Gunnar run the ball a few times. He looked real comfortable against Kansas, and while we can’t afford an injury, playing scared is playing to lose. And, checks notes, that’s sure what the Blue Devils are doing right now. Why is the offensive strategy built around fear? Well, let’s take a look at number three …
  3. Not developing quarterback depth. What happened to the days of Renfree, Boone and Connette? Sirk goes down in 2016 and a future first round pick steps in. Since then? We’ve been afraid to run our quarterbacks because we don’t have depth at the position. I’m not sure why Luca Diamont isn’t playing, so I won’t comment on that, but I will say that the quarterback guru has hit a rough patch. For a guy who has produced so many NFL QBs to have so little depth at such a critical position is a damning statement about where the program is at year 14 of the Cutcliffe era.
  4. The Blue Devils’ staff isn’t adapting. Twice this season Duke lost leads in the 4th quarter after retaking a lead. Why? Because the staff continues to employ the same defensive scheme that exposes our corners. Opposing teams figured it out and, just like not finding a way to cover the wheel route, our staff hasn’t. It’s the same with the offense. The predictability problems that started to seep in during the Daniel Jones era continue to haunt the program now. Cut has to go outside of his “people” and get someone with some fresh offensive ideas. Otherwise, we better get used to being at the bottom of the Coastal.
  5. We have a retention issue. While watching some of the Clemson-Pitt game yesterday, I was surprised to learn that C. J. Spiller and Tajh Boyd are on the Clemson coaching staff. It surprised me because I didn’t know that players who were significant contributors could be a part of your team’s staff. Can someone explain to me why all of the players who played for Cutcliffe who now coach aren’t dressing up for the Blue Devils on Saturdays? Why don’t we have Anthony Boone, Takoby Cofield, Carlos Wray and Max McCaffrey on staff? You don’t think Braxton Deaver or David Reeves would come coach the tight ends? Those are guys who were key contributors and know what it takes to win in Durham. Are you telling me they wouldn’t help recruiting and player development?

To sum it up, I’m giving the team a C-. I expected struggles this season and didn’t expect more than 4 wins, so I won’t give them a D or an F. That’s just not fair because this was going to be a tough season. The conference schedule is brutal and we had to expect a down year.

That said, I didn’t expect the staff to find a way to give away two wins. I also thought that this group would play better against UNC and UVA. But those two games made one thing clear – the program is heading in the wrong direction. Duke isn’t suffering the kind of losses Virginia Tech has had this year – six points to West Virginia, three points to Notre Dame and five points to Syracuse. Those types of loses (which are what I expected from the Blue Devils) would tell me the team would learn from the close losses and start winning games next season. But we’re a long, long way from hope for the 2022 season. And it all goes back to coaching.

Let me know what you think in the comments or on Twitter.

Go Duke!

Duke in the NFL – 2021 Draft Recap

The first two days of the 2021 NFL draft didn’t see any Duke players come off the board. The final day, however, saw four, count them 1-2-3-4, Blue Devils get drafted. Leaving Durham for the NFL by way of the draft are Chris Rumph (4th, Chargers), Michael Carter (5th, Jets), Noah Gray (5th, Chiefs) and Victor “Big Vic” Dimukeje (6th, Cardinals). In addition, Deon Jackson, Mark Gilbert and Devery Hamilton signed undrafted fee agent deals and are headed to the Colts, the Steelers and the Raiders respectively. All told, seven players from last year’s team are going to the NFL. That’s a positive development.

Of the players who got drafted, I think we can all agree that Gray is in the best spot and is most likely to get to the playoffs and win a Super Bowl right away. If you disagree, I’d like to hear why. The thought on Rumph is he needs to put on some weight, but I expect him to make plays early because that’s how he plays. I also like Big Vic to come on strong towards the end of this season. He knows how to make plays and will do so if given the opportunity. As for Carter, he’ll be fine so long as he stays healthy. I’ll be interested if Deon and Mark make a roster. I think that Deon will, but Gilbert has a lot of health questions which: a) explain why he wasn’t drafted; and b) may make it harder for him to stay in the league. I want him to, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he has to grind it out for a few years before ending up in a Breon Borders situation. As for Hamilton, he’s going to be a project. It wouldn’t stun me if he gets playing time in a few years like Lucas Patrick and Matt Skura did, but he may also end up playing in Canada. We’ll have to see how it plays out.

My first reaction as the draft unfolded over the weekend was, “Man, that’s great! This is the highest number of draft picks since 1973. All this publicity will be great and kill a recruiting argument against Duke!” My second thought was, “How in the hell did Deon go undrafted?” It’s now Monday and I’m still befuddled. If someone can explain why he didn’t get his named called, I’d appreciate it. Not selecting Deon seems like an obvious miss. I know that RBs aren’t as highly valued as they used to be, but with his speed and ability to catch passes, he would have been a great fit in a place like Kansas City. Moving on – my third and final thought is that this doesn’t necessarily bode well for Cutcliffe’s tenure if the team struggles in 2021.

I haven’t looked at the roster to see who is leaving after the 2021 season and who is likely to get drafted (why change coaches if the talent pool is improving and more players are going to the pros?), but I can say the new AD is probably going to ask Cut why he went 5-7 and 2-9 over the last two seasons with a core that put seven players into the NFL. He is going to need to be ready to explain why he got so few wins out of so much talent over the last two seasons. If the losses start to pile up next year, I wouldn’t be surprised if a new AD isn’t as patient and makes a change to bring in his “own guy.” We all know that AD turnover can be the kiss of death for a coach on the hot seat and I think that, despite the good draft, the head coach’s seat may have gotten just a bit hotter.

That said, let’s hope for the best next season. I’m ready for the Blue Devils to get back to, and win, a bowl game. Go Duke!

2021 Staff Changes – A Reason for Hope?

When Chris Hampton left Durham to return to Tulane at the end of the season, we knew that a new DB coach would be hired at some point. As time passed with no replacement, we weren’t real sure what was going on. It turns out that Coach Cutcliffe decided to do an internal overhaul in lieu of bringing in one new coach from outside of the family and keeping everything else the same. While he did bring in a new position coach, it was for the offensive side of the ball, not for the defensive unit.

The changes are as follows:

  • Zac Roper – now deputy head coach and TE coach only (formerly OC and QB coach);
  • Trooper Taylor – now associate head coach and DB coach (formerly WR coach);
  • Re’quan Boyette – now co-OC and WR coach (formerly RB coach);
  • Jeff Faris – now co-OC and QB coach (formerly TE coach and offensive recruiting coordinator);
  • Greg Frey – now the offensive recruiting coordinator;
  • Lanier Goethe – now the defensive recruiting coordinator;
  • Kirk Benedict – now the special teams coordinator; and
  • Calvin Magee – RB coach.

Magee is the only new hire. I’m excited about him coming on board because, as our friends at Duke FB Talk pointed out, he’s somewhat of a RB whisperer despite his TE bona fides. (If you haven’t listed to the latest Section 17 podcast, DO IT NOW. OMG, WHAT ARE YOU WAITING FOR?!?!?!) While I am worried about Boyette taking over the WRs (more on that below), I think the RBs will be in good hands. I hope that the WRs don’t suffer because Trooper Taylor had them moving in the right direction.

What are we to make of these changes? Here are my thoughts (not in order of importance):

  1. Zac Roper looks like a man who is running out of time.
    1. He started as special teams/RB coach, took over the TEs in 2013 when Boyette came on as RB coach and he then became the AHC/OC/QB coach in 2016.
    2. Cutcliffe took over the offense last season and has now demoted him down to just the TE coach.
    3. I would be worried if I were him. The special teams were pretty good under him and, despite that, Cutcliffe has asked someone else to coach that unit.
    4. Deputy head coach is a meaningless title. The players were clearly happy when Roper took a reduced role last season. This is another step down in what looks like a pretty rapid decline.
    5. Roper got a lot of rope and has come close to hanging himself with it.
  2. I think we will be running the ball more.
    1. Boyette was a good RB at Duke. Boyette has coached many good RBs at Duke. Boyette will now help design the offense.
    2. Frey is putting a good OL together and snagged some good transfers. He is now the recruiting coordinator for the offense.
    3. These things all scream “RUN THE BALL.”
    4. Mataeo Durant has to be happy.
  3. I am concerned about the WRs.
    1. I don’t know what to expect from Boyette as the WR coach.
    2. I like what he’s done with the RBs, but I don’t know if that will translate. The position group is older, so he can learn on the job without much downside to the team in the immediate future.
    3. Time will tell. Be patient.
  4. I am not concerned about the secondary.
    1. Trooper will do well with the DBs.
    2. He coached DBs before and knows what he’s doing. He took over a mess at the WR position and got them rolling. I’m excited.
    3. His promotion to Associate Head Coach also indicates he will take on a bigger role in the day-to-day operations.
    4. You have to like that.
    5. Also, as his star rises, Roper’s declines. Just saying.
  5. I think that Frey is going to be a big fixture for this team going forward for the reasons we discussed above.
  6. I still don’t know how much of the offense will change.
    1. This is because Cut is Cut and may micro-manage.
    2. I’m optimistically cautious, if that makes sense.
    3. Cut should probably let the coaches coach and oversee operations. He needs to take a reduced role and function as CEO.

Last but not least, I think these moves were the result of pressure put on Cut. Here is what he said about them at the press conference announcing the changes

Image

Someone told Cut that the status quo isn’t good enough and changes were necessary. Maybe not big changes, maybe not drastic changes. But changes. Why do I say this?

With Kevin White retiring, Cut has to know that doesn’t necessarily bode well for him. When Tom Butters retired and Alleva took over in 1998, Coach Goldsmith ran out of time. (In retrospect, this was a giant mistake (and looking back on it, I don’t understand why he didn’t get one more season at the time. I’d like to do a podcast about that with some folks later, so I won’t get into that now)).

Cut has to know that a new AD will decide his fate. And that can’t be good. He doesn’t have a decade-plus relationship with that person to rely on. Instead, he’ll be working with a new person who will be given the task of replacing both Cut and K. Yikes. And given that the seasons since 2015 have been generally mediocre including two disastrous campaigns in 2019 and 2020, he has to put a good product on the field in 2021. Hence the staff shakeup.

Finally, I’m not certain that Cut is done making changes. I expect more to come if Duke falls into the 4 to 6 wins range next year. Why? Like I said, Cut has to prove he deserves to keep his job. His contract only runs until 2022, so he doesn’t have a lot of leverage. Expect Cut to get aggressive. It’s his job that hangs in the balance.

Go Duke!

2020 Season Recap – Duke Football?

As the end of this season approached, it struck me as a bit coincidental that I was in the process of finishing up The History of Rome podcast. If you haven’t listened to it, you should. The podcast clocks in at around 180 episodes and is narrated by Mike Duncan, the best podcaster out there (other than the guys from Section 17).

Why am I bringing this up? The History of Rome details the rise to glory of a small Italian settlement populated by misfits and castaways. From extraordinarily humble origins, the descendants of the first Romans built a proud empire that conquered so much of the known world that it lives on in our collective memory more than 1500 years after the Western part of its empire collapsed.

ACC Coastal Division Champs! Duke Beats UNC 27-25 - Duke University
Duke’s 2013 ACC Coastal Championship stands as the crowning achievement of the Cutcliffe era.

While Duke hasn’t accomplished anything close to what Ancient Rome accomplished, David Cutcliffe has achieved great things in Durham. There is no denying that. He took over a program in complete shambles, much like Rome was after it was first sacked by the Gauls. And, like the Romans, Cutcliffe, the staff and players slowly rebuilt the mess that years of neglect created. The results speak for themselves – an ACC Coastal Championship, playing the ACC Championship game, the Peach Bowl (that’s its name, sorry), the Sun Bowl and then wins in the Pinstripe, Quick Lane and Independence Bowls. The Blue Devils also beat North Carolina, NC State, Notre Dame and actually had a lead against Clemson in 2018. Duke even played Alabama tough in 2019 before the Blue Devils fell apart as that season progressed.

Unfortunately, Duke’s expansion and domination hasn’t continued. Whereas Rome defeated the Carthage in the Punic Wars and the Italians in the Social War, Duke is losing to teams it once consistently beat. Whereas Rome overcame its internal and external enemies, the Blue Devils have faltered in a series of embarrassing blowouts.

There is no disputing that the program is in a state of decline. When Rome faced a similar crisis, The Crisis of the Third Century, it found leaders like Aurelian, Diocletian and Constantine. These men used a combination of tactical and political genius to right the ship of the Empire. They stabilized it and allowed it to continue (the Eastern Empire survived until the 1450s) The question for us is whether Cutcliffe can do the same thing. We know that he’s done it before. What is uncertain is whether he can do it again.

The biggest challenge facing the team heading into next season is the loss of so many talented defensive players and having to start a fourth quarterback in four seasons. On top of that, the recruiting situation looks a little murky. While I said on Twitter that I would do a deep dive on the incoming class, Duke Maven covered it pretty well. They pointed out that the quality of incoming players may be slipping and that other ACC programs are winning the recruiting battle.

Next year will be a critical year for Duke. It will tell us whether the football program is headed for the resurgence that Rome experienced once Diocletian came into power and ended The Crisis or whether, like Rome, the Blue Devils have been surrounded by Visigoths and Vandals. And not to give away the ending, but when those guys show up, you get sacked.

Let’s hope for the former. Go Duke!

2020 Game Recap – History Continued to Repeat Itself

By now you all know that Duke lost. Badly. Again. And the defense gave up more than 50 points for the third time in the last four games. At least the offense scored this time – 35 points. But that makes the game look a little closer than it was. The Seminoles ripped off 28 straight, notching big play after big play and methodically putting up first downs, yards and points.

And that was just the first quarter.

After that, Coach Cutcliffe called the team together on the sideline and actually, you know, coached. It worked – briefly. The Blue Devils dialed up three straight touchdowns thanks to big plays from Eli Pancol, Mataeo Durant and Deon Jackson. Chase Brice even threw some nice passes.

It really looked like Duke had a chance. With the first half winding down, the Blue Devils put a nice drive together, had a chance to score and then … Well, this team did what it normally does. It committed three holding penalties on consecutive plays and went from a first and 10 to a 1st and, you’re going to read that right, 40. You know, just a casual 40 yards to go on four downs. That drive ended in classic Duke fashion – 3rd and 40, a timeout left and a kneel down. Yep – Cutcliffe dialed up taking a knee on third down to run out the clock in lieu of throwing over the middle and trying to make something happen. Which made sense because it isn’t like the Blue Devils would start the second half with the ball or anything. Wait, hold on, I’m getting a call. “What’s that you say? Duke was starting the second half with the ball? So, they had a chance to score at the end of the first half and go into the final thirty minutes with possession and they chose not to? Are you sure that’s what happened? Because that can’t be right. No coach in his right mind would do that.”

But it did happen. It totally happened. I watched it. And I’m still pissed off about it.

The second half was a giant cluster of a disaster of a nightmare. Brice came out of the game, Luca Diamont came in (Gunnar Holmberg didn’t make the trip due to injury) and the wheels fell off. Brice tried to scramble to get a first down, he got hurt, fumbled, turned the ball over and then Florida State scored on the next play. Brice went to the locker room with what looked like a banged up shoulder. Taking advantage of the shift in momentum, the Seminoles scored touchdown after touchdown after touchdown. The Blue Devils didn’t entirely quit and scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, one of which came on a nifty pass from Jackson, but it was too little too late.

The game ended in a familiar, and painful, way. A blow out.

We could talk about how Duke shouldn’t have lost the game this badly. Florida State is bad this season and hadn’t played in weeks. Despite that, the Blue Devils couldn’t take advantage and got beat. By a bad team? The question is why did this happen. Or, more accurately, why did it happen again?

I think it goes back to Cutcliffe’s mismanagement of the quarterback situation. Last season Cutcliffe stuck with Quentin Harris when he played poorly, not Chase Brice poorly, but still poorly. Instead of pulling Harris, giving him a few series on the sidelines to get his head straight, Cutcliffe kept running him out there. The result was a disastrous string of losses to Virginia, UNC, Notre Dame, Syracuse and Wake Forest (the Wake game was “close” thanks to DPJ, not the rest of the offense). In fact, the team started to look bad in the second half of the Georgia Tech game that year (I know, I was there. They looked off in the second half which I erroneously attributed at the time to scaling the offense back while up big. I was wrong, but three points in the second half should have been a sign.).

Cutcliffe had Chris Katrenick to turn to, a veteran who had been in Durham for a number of years and understood the offense. Instead of turning to a veteran with a throrough understanding of the scheme the team ran, he stuck with his guy. And the result was a 5-7 season and a jump pass away from going to a bowl game.

Imagine if Cutcliffe had used Katrenick last season. Odds are Katrenick doesn’t opt out this year and doesn’t decide to transfer. I don’t know about you, but I would have very much liked to have seen a veteran quarterback step in for Brice this season. And not having Katrenick as a backup became problematic for this team last night. Without Holmberg, Duke didn’t have a quarterback with experience to turn to. And while Diamont played well at times, his inexperience got the better of him early. His first several throws looked like screwballs and he threw a bad pick while trying to make something out of nothing. While he settled down and got comfortable, and actually looked good running, I think most all fans would have much preferred to see what Katrenick could have done. Being a senior, don’t you think that the team would have turned to him for leadership and followed his direction? I think so. It could have been one heck of a story for Katrenick to finish his time in Durham.

But we didn’t get that opportunity because the Quarterback Guru mismanaged this situation. Badly.

There were other reasons that this team lost to Florida State. Multiple turnovers, giving up big plays on defense and a litany of penalties (everyone drink – Chris Rumph jumped offsides!). In season 13, this team looked like it had never been held accountable. No one got benched for making mistakes. Nothing was done to correct, during the game, the penalties, the turnovers or the lapses in coverage. Brice keeping the starting job is the perfect example. I gave up counting how many times he turned the ball over and I don’t want to come across as kicking a guy who got injured.

The question before us now is whether this will change for the better next season. I have to doubt it. This was season thirteen and it sure seems like Cutcliffe lost control of the program. (I have heard similar things from multiple sources.) While we can hope that he will right the ship and instill a sense of discipline, I wouldn’t expect it. Since the Georgia Tech game, Duke has lost by 20 or more points a total of 8 times (3 in 2019 and 5 times in 2020). The Blue Devils have a total of 2 conference wins in that time.

This program is trending in the wrong direction. There’s no denying it. This is going to take a monumental amount of work and effort. The offense needs to change and accountability needs to be restored. Can Cut do it? I sure hope so. But I have my doubts.

We’ll see what happens next season. Go Duke!

2020 Game Previews – Let It End

Duke will (mercifully) finish its football season this Saturday in Tallahassee. If the Blue Devils’ history against the Seminoles is any guide, Duke will lose. If this season, particularly the last three games, is any guide, the Blue Devils will lose. Badly. I thought about doing an analysis of FSU’s relative struggles this year, Duke’s anemic offense and now horrendous defense (you can’t say you have a good defense when you give up 48 or more in three straight games) and how two pretty lousy teams will match up against one another.

But what’s the point of that? It presupposes that the Blue Devils will actually show up and put together a complete game in all three phases. When was the last time that this team did that? Charlotte? How can a team play well when the offense is insistent on turning the ball over at every opportunity. Let’s be honest, all indications are that this team quit, gave up, mailed it in (it’s hard to blame them when the head coach doesn’t demand accountability). Other than the punter and the kicker, this team is just plain awful.

Instead of analyzing how two bad teams will match up against each other, I am going to put this team’s final record, win or lose, in historical perspective.

If Duke loses on Saturday, it will finish the season with 2 wins. You read that right. 2 wins. That would be the fewest under Coach Cutcliffe’s tenure and Duke’s worst season since 2007 when Ted Roof was the head coach. The Blue Devils finished that year 1-11 and Duke got a new coach. A 2-9 finish would be the same record Roof put together in 2004, his first full season at the helm, and the same as Fred Goldsmith’s 1997 team, his second-to-last in Durham.

If the Blue Devils somehow win the game, the team would finish 3-8 – one win fewer than Cutcliffe’s first year and practically the same result his teams put together in 2010 and 2011. 3-8 would be the same record Carl Franks amassed in 1999 during his first season as head coach. Goldsmith had the same record in 1995, his second season on the Wallace Wade sidelines. Barry Wilson put together a 2 win season in 1992 and a 3 win season in 1993. He was then asked to leave. So, regardless of whether Duke wins or loses the game, the result is a season that is in line with when the program was at its absolute worst. Like I’ve been saying all year – we’ve come full circle.

Win or lose, there is no disputing the fact that the program has regressed. Cutcliffe supposedly raised the bar in Durham. More is expected of the Blue Devils in football. And, if that is true, then Cutcliffe has to be held accountable.

Oh, and before I conclude, I am going to predict a Seminoles victory. Sorry, but I don’t see it happening any other way.

2020 Transfer Portal Update – Chris Katrenick Out

What we all suspected when Chris Katrenick opted out is now official — Katrenick is entering the transfer portal and leaving Durham.

Katrenick’s announcement on his Twitter account.

Katrenick rode the bench for most all of his time at Duke. That was understandable when Daniel Jones was under center, but it made little to no sense last year when Quentin Harris looked confused and needed a break. While Katrenick may not have taken us to the ACC tournament, I have to think that he could have squeaked out one win and gotten the Blue Devils to a bowl last year.

What do we make of this? First, we appreciate Katrenick’s time at Duke and wish him the best. Second, this should put more pressure on Coach Cutcliffe to give Gunnar Holmberg a shot next week as he has been shown what happens when players don’t get to play. With this year not counting against eligibility, Holmberg has relatively little to lose from transferring. That is something this team cannot afford to have happen as it would leave Chase Brice, Luca Diamont and Gavin Spurrier as the only quarterbacks. I like Diamont and think he can do well in this offense, but I would prefer to have a quarterback depth chart of Holmberg, Diamont, Spurrier and then Brice. Holmberg showed some flashes of ability in limited time (that beautiful TD that got called back is the perfect example) and it is time for him to get a real opportunity under center. Cutcliffe needs to stop being so stubborn. The time is now.