BullCityCoordinators

2021 Game Previews – Duke Battles Virginia Tech

Duke heads to Blacksburg this Saturday to take on Virginia Tech. Both teams are in a spiral. The Blue Devils have lost five straight since notching a win against Kansas back in September. The Hokies haven’t done much better and stand at 4-5 overall, 2-3 in conference and 5th in Coastal. The only silver lining for Virginia Tech’s status in the ACC is that Duke stands at 0-5 in conference and is in last place in the Coastal. It’s the little things in life, right?

In trying to make sense of this game, I’m going to stick with trends, albeit the more recent trends as opposed to the long-standing trends like I’ve been doing all season. The reason I’m doing that is because the recent trends give the Blue Devils a chance for a win (health of Gunnar Holmberg and willingness to be creative on offense are the key contingencies here). So, with that in mind, let’s get to it.

In looking at the trends for Virginia Tech, what started off as a promising season has fallen off the rails. After a 3-1 start and a close loss to Notre Dame, Virginia Tech went from hoping for a good season to hoping for a new coach. Losing 4 out of 5 to fall to sub-.500 in conference is what the end of a head coach’s time at a school looks like and that’s what we’re seeing unfold in Blacksburg. While Fuente has done some good things at Tech, my VT buddies all said they got the sense that the Hokies quit and resigned themselves to the inevitable. Which is unfortunate, because we don’t root for people to lose their jobs here (my comments about Coach Cut’s future notwithstanding. I’m not rooting for him to get fired, I’m just saying it has to happen to move the program forward).

Why is Virginia Tech struggling important? Good question, because it isn’t like Duke is looking hot right now. Furthermore, this team hasn’t done anything since September that would cause us to expect a win. Well, here’s why Tech struggling is important. Most of the VT fanbase is looking ahead to the next season and is ready for a new coach. The rumor mill won’t stop turning about VT. Further, Burmeister may not start at QB for the Hokies and, if the players have thrown in the towel like a lot of the fans suspect, the Blue Devils can snatch a road win and avoid a winless conference season. (Can I just say the fact that we’re talking about this during a relatively healthy season is a sign of how low the program has sunk?) Also, some of my VT pals have pointed out that the quarterback situation behind Burmeister is a mess and that could help our guys from Durham. VT struggling is a good thing for the visiting team. So, with that in mind, let’s turn to the trends coming out of the Bull City.

Whereas Tech looked fairly lackluster in a 17-3 loss to BC, Duke came out somewhat sharp last week against Pitt before the wheels came off. If the Blue Devils hadn’t been sloppy with the ball early, this could have been a very different game (albeit one that ended in a loss because Duke’s defense is really, really struggling right now). Let’s assume that Gunnar comes back from his injury and plays on Saturday, this team has a shot right? Look, if the Blue Devils can show life against one of the best teams in the Coastal, surely they can play well against a team near the bottom of the Coastal. Heck, Duke did that against Georgia Tech and, if memory serves, blew a lead late in the 4th. (Again, this defense is really, really struggling.)

But it will take a significant amount of creativity and thinking outside the box to make that work. And that’s where the problem comes in. Creativity isn’t this team’s strongest asset. The offense is fairly vanilla and easy to figure out. Hence the poor performances against UNC, Virginia and Wake. Here are a couple of ideas to try and help the team get a win on Saturday:

Slow down. We need to keep our defense off the field if we want to win. I’m not going to recap how poorly the Blue Devils have been as a unit defensively, but I will say that we need to keep the defense on the sidelines to have a chance. How do we do that? Run. A. Huddle. Get rid of the tempo. Look, the other team is just going to have a ton of “injuries” crop up to slow us down and disrupt the tempo, so take that away and run the offense out of a huddle. Give the defense time to adjust.
Different personnel. Let’s get guys like Ja’Mion Franklin on the field more. Get R. J. Oben on the field more. Our DL has struggled to consistently get pressure and, at 3-6, it’s time to shake things up and see if that will get some more production. The secondary needs help and this could be a way to do that. I like Ben Frye, but he’s a grad student and it’s probably time to see what some of the younger guys can do. How bout we bring him off the bench for leadership and energy?
But it isn’t just the defense that could use a change; we need to help the offense by putting Luca Diamont on the field to play wide receiver. The kid looks fast when he’s in (and I know it’s against a second unit, but still) and he is known as a running quarterback. Why not give him a shot at wide receiver? I like our guys, but getting separation isn’t their strongest skill (hence all the quick passes). Why not give a fast guy a chance to see what can happen? He’s buried on the depth chart as it is, so move him to a different position. Run him on some underneath routes, go over the middle with him, try some reverses and fake reverses. Create confusion. Why the heck not at this point? We had a pretty decent guy who wore number 2 play WR in the past, so why not try it again? And thanks to Matt Lentz for this idea.

So, can Duke get a win on Saturday? It’s possible. I’ll even be in Blacksburg cheering the Blue Devils on in Section 19. I’m hoping for Duke to get a win and, because I want to see them win, I’m going to call for the upset. I’m taking the Blue Devils to win 24-20.

Let me know what you think about what I think in the comments or on Twitter.

Go Duke!

2021 Game Recap – Duke Loses More than a Game Against Pitt

I don’t know why I’m posting this image. Just trying to promote the brand, I guess.

We all expected Duke to lose, but what we didn’t necessarily expect was the fight the Blue Devils put up against a 6-2 (now 7-2) Pitt team. Duke had chances early. Gunnar Holmberg, Mataeo Durant, Eli Pancol and company came out firing and kept this game interesting until late in the second quarter. But two trips to the Pitt one yard line that ended on a fumble and a turnover on downs were too much for the Blue Devils to overcome. Despite an early field goal, a safety and a nice touchdown toss from Gunnar to Calhoun, Pitt did what every other ACC team has done to Duke this season – win. The 54-29 final score was another blowout loss in conference this season.

Even worse for the Blue Devils than the fifth straight loss was that Gunnar Holmberg left the game with an injury. It appears to be a hairline-ish rib fracture and not the more serious clavicle fracture we were all concerned about based on the way Gunnar held himself as he left the game. While Riley Leonard did all right in relief, I think we would all prefer to have Gunnar when Duke takes on the Hokies next week. And, speaking of the quarterback situation, it’s time to get to Five Things because there is something about that situation I certainly don’t like. But, before we get to that, here are Five Things I liked:

We returned a kick for a touchdown! Our man Jaylen Stinson, after a number of questionable returns all season, showed up big when he took one 69 yards to the house. Jaylen, I’ve been critical of the way the staff has let you return kicks as opposed to taking a touchback, but you sure made the most of that one. Congrats, my man!
Our offense actually put up points for the first time since Georgia Tech. While 29 wasn’t enough, the Blue Devils moved the ball real well until Jeff Faris decided to stop running the ball (more on that below). Gunnar looked sharp, we used our tight ends, Bobo and Durant did what they do and Eli Pancol showed up. It was nice (while it lasted).
We. Got. A. Safety. I have been pretty critical of our DL not getting a lot of pressure (which I think is the result of youth and not getting the right unit on the field), but they stepped up early. That safety gave us a real shot to hang around. It just wasn’t in the cards today.
How about Dorian Mausi causing a turnover? We didn’t really know what to expect form him when Rocky Shelton was dismissed from the team earlier this year, but the man has stepped up. He looks like a leader out there and calls the plays, changes assignments and gets in the middle of it. Sam McGrath has done a heck of a job with this linebacker crew. How about a 4-3 next year instead of the 4-2-5 the opposition just runs a wheel route against?
And for number five … I got a new set of strings on my acoustic Fender. Does that count? No? Well, tough – that’s all I’ve got.

And now for the Five Things I didn’t like:

How in the world do we get inside the opposing team’s 1 yard line twice and come away with zero points? It’s a rhetorical question, so don’t bring up the play calls and the fumble. That poor performance just can’t happen. We have an older team on offense and ought to be able to punch the ball into the end zone in those situations. This team just isn’t good at situational football and the fumbling continues to be a problem.
So, too, does the quarterback situation. I don’t understand what the quarterback whisperer / offensive guru is doing with this unit. Holmberg hasn’t been allowed to run the ball since the Kansas game and the crappy offensive performances speak for themselves. Then, when he gets hurt, we turn to a true freshman and not the sophomore Luca Diamont? Plus, we let Leonard run, but not Gunnar? And what happened to Moore? Are we going to blow both of their redshirts because the staff has some apparent issue with Luca? I don’t know what Jeff Faris (read “David Cutcliffe”) is doing, but none of this makes sense. Duke runs an offense that takes time for a new quarterback to figure out, so it would make sense to let Luca play in this situation. But mismanaging the quarterback room is par for the course for this staff, so let’s move onto number three …
Jeff Faris cut our offense off at the knees. Putting aside the points we left on the board early by giving the ball away, the Blue Devils ran the offense pretty well early on. Durant burst through holes and Gunnar actually picked up a few yards on the ground. And then Faris abandons the run and starts throwing the ball every down? Sure, Jan, that makes sense. Keep doing what works until the other team stops it. Don’t shoot yourself in the foot.
Our defensive line is not getting any pressure. Maybe get Franklin and Oben in more? Maybe give the guys who get a lot of pressure and are disruptive more opportunities? How about we pair them with Carter and Smith? I don’t know if our staff is the best at putting the right guys in position to make plays. Our defense gave up way too many points, way too many yards and generally fell to pieces as the game went on. I expected us to struggle defensively all season because of all the depth we lost and the fact that we were going to play a lot of young guys, but Duke is giving up well over 40 points per game in conference. That says a lot about scheme, design and coaching.
Why didn’t Cut use his timeouts at the end of the first half to try and ice Pitt’s kicker? It’s an eight point game, you have two timeouts and Pitt gets the ball to start the second half. Use the timeouts and try to ice the kicker. Cut didn’t and I can’t figure out why. Like I said after the last loss, Cut has shown a complete lack of energy and it almost seems like he doesn’t care. Not using your timeouts there signaled defeat. Again, this team, staff included, is bad at situational football, but you can be bad at situational football and still care. Unfortunately, Cut sure seems like he’s checked out.

Let me just wrap up by saying that while I expected this Blue Devils’ team to be 4-8, I expected more losses like we saw today. Competition early followed by the game slipping away. Unfortunately, because the staff isn’t fixing the ball control issue, isn’t making the right decisions in key situations and isn’t using personnel correctly … Wow, just re-read that. What was my point? Oh, right – because of the way this team is losing there isn’t a good reason to keep the staff around for another season. I will say that I hope our OL coach, our LB coach and Requan Boyette get another season. I’m also fine with keeping Ben Albert around so long as he moves back to just being the DL coach and we get a new DC.

Anyway, those are my thoughts. I’m going to strum those new strings I mentioned because my kids are watching an Adam Sandler movie and, I’m gonna go ahead and say it, he’s not funny. He just isn’t. I will die on this hill.

Let me know what you think about what I think in the comments or on Twitter. But, before you do that, send some good vibes to Gunnar. Get well soon – we’ll need you in Blacksburg!

Go Duke!

And, P.S., congrats to Mataeo on getting past the 1,000 yard mark this season. A one thousand yard rusher would normally be enough to get to bowl game at most schools, but it isn’t enough in Durham.

2021 Game Previews – Duke takes on Pitt

I don’t remember the last time that Duke beat Pitt, but it seems like forever ago. In 2019, the Blue Devils lost a heartbreaker in part due to a combination of bad calls and blowing a late lead. 2017 and 2018 saw two close losses whereas 2015 and 2016 were complete blowouts. You have to go all the way back to 2014 to find the last time Duke managed to beat Pitt thanks in large part to Cut using three straight timeouts to ice Chris Blewitt which brought home a double-OT victory on the road. Really, on the road? Yep, on the road.

Why am I bringing all these games up? I promise it isn’t to cause unnecessary pain – it’s because I’m sticking with the trends like I’ve done all season. (So, are you following your own trend, Bull City Coordinator? Yes, I am, Other Bull City Coordinator, yes, I am.)

Other Barry approves of my Archer reference.

Looking at the trends, Pitt is in the midst of a pretty darned good season right now. The Panthers are 6-2 (3-1) and are first in the Coastal. While losing to Miami was a bad loss, Pitt has a good argument they got cheated out of a safety (hey, it’s nice to see someone else get screwed by replay against Miami) that may have cost them the game. Given the fact that Pitt probably has the best quarterback in the conference, expect them to come out angry and take out their frustration on the Blue Devils.

Look, I’d like to believe that Duke is going to snap to attention and play well on Saturday. But, sticking with the trends, I’m not seeing how that’s possible. The Blue Devils haven’t won a game in over a month, haven’t played well in conference and are getting blown out by the competition. You can’t muster 14 points against UNC, UVA and Wake and expect the fans to think you have a shot at a victory.

Given that context, I’m taking Pitt to win and win big. I think Pitt will drop around 50 and the Blue Devils will score … Let’s say 10? 52-10? Does that sound right? I mean, Pitt doesn’t have a great defense, so some points are possible. Anyway, I’m just hoping that this team shows some life because we haven’t seen that since Georgia Tech. I like a lot of these players, but Cut seems to have driven the passion out of them. I want them to do well, but I’m realistic and understand this is going to be an uphill fight.

Let me know what you think about what I think in the comments or on Twitter.

Go Duke!

Bonus Episode – Duke Wake Forest Jam Session

To forget about yesterday’s game, we’re posting a jam session. The tracks are:

Mississippi Sawyer or After a Bye Week for Christ’s Sake – guitar and banjo;

Sandy Boys or Turnover Duke – guitar and fiddle;

Kitchen Gal or Run to Adversity – guitar and banjo; and

New Five Cent Piece or Everything has an Expiration Date – guitar and fiddle.

Listen here.

2021 Game Recap – Cut the Cord

I’m going to skip the recap of yesterday’s fourth straight painful loss and get right to what needs to be said. Sorry if you were looking forward to Five Things, but now isn’t the time for that. (We did record a jam session yesterday which I will try to post tonight.)

During yesterday’s game, I said I on Twitter that I would not hold back in my game recap. Here’s what I said:

I don’t remember what specifically caused me to lose my patience and self-control, but it’s about time I come out and say what I’ve been hinting at all season. So, as promised, here it is – it is time for Duke football to move on from David Cutcliffe. The Blue Devils need a new coach. We can appreciate all that David Cutcliffe did from 2008 until 2018 while recognizing that he’s holding Duke back and an impediment to winning. I’ve been talking about trends all season and I’ve been doing it for a reason – once the Blue Devils lost to Charlotte, I had a sense that Cutcliffe wouldn’t fix the problems that had been haunting this team since 2018-ish and we’d see a repeat of what we’ve seen since 2019. That premonition turned out to be accurate when North Carolina absolutely demolished Duke – Cutcliffe won’t make changes. He won’t make adjustments. He won’t adapt to the changing football landscape. And the results speak for themselves – blowout loss after blowout loss. It’s pathetic. We’re every bit as bad as we were when Cutcliffe came to Durham.

If the university cares about football, I don’t know how this can be allowed to continue. I’ve watched the Blue Devils regularly since the 1990s, I have a vague memory of knowing that Duke did well real during Spurrier’s last season, so I can say this with a good deal of authority – this is one of the worst teams I’ve ever watched. This Blue Devils team is just bad. There’s no way around it. This Duke team is getting beat, manhandled and pushed around just like all those teams under Franks and Roof did.

The key difference, though, is this team has a lot more talent than those bad Goldsmith, Franks and Roof teams that went winless. Those teams were often younger, smaller and slower than the other team at every position. That isn’t the case here – our OL and DL can match up with their opposition from a size perspective and the corners play well in coverage (aside from constantly being left alone in single coverage which just about every corner is going to get beat on). We have a good running back, a real good one, and a quarterback who can complete a pass and run (but the staff doesn’t let him, because, you know, idiocy). There is absolutely no excuse for the failure of this offensive staff to put points on the board and to give up 30+ each week.

So, why is it happening? Well, I guess we will do Five Things after all and put the blame where it belongs – on the head coach. Here are Five Things that are wrong with the program right now:

Cut promotes people based on time served, not on merit. Zac Roper and Jeff Faris are the perfect examples of bad promotions. Why do we have a former special teams coordinator and a walk-on safety running our offense instead of a former QB or a WR? It’s a good question without a good answer. When you’re on a team or part of a business, and a university football program is a business, you have to produce. Cut has seemed content since 2015 to let people advance based on time served as opposed to merit and performance. That’s a terrible way to run a business. Produce or go home. If results aren’t expected and demanded, you start to slip. Then you fall. That’s what’s happening now. We are falling right into adversity.
Cut doesn’t hold people accountable (and this is going to bleed into numbers three and four, because there’s a lot to unpack here). How in the world Jeff Faris still has a job after UNC, UVA and Wake is beyond me. His game management yesterday was terrible. I don’t want to go into the bad plays, but what he’s doing isn’t working. But it isn’t entirely on him, it’s an extension of what happened when Zac Roper ran the offense. And it only took wasting a generational talent at quarterback followed by a jump pass that cost Duke a bowl game to make a change there. Wasting talent is what happens when you don’t hold your staff accountable. Before I leave this point, am I the only one who has noticed that Roper seems to be hovering around Cut all throughout the game? Does he still have some involvement in the offense? If so, why? Look, Faris may be a good person and a nice guy, but, like Donny in The Big Lebowski, he’s out of his element.
The defensive scheme has been figured out. We’ve been in a 4-2-5 for years. You have gaps because you don’t have a third LB to fill them. Teams know where those gaps are and run plays to force the LB to come in on runs or drop into coverage on a WR on pass plays. They then go to where the LB isn’t (or just heave it on single coverage). The result – big plays and blowouts. Just like Faris shouldn’t be running the offense, Matt Guerrieri isn’t doing a good job. We keep getting burned on the same plays we’ve gotten burned on since 2015. We also can’t disguise our blitzes. And we don’t adapt. Again, Guerrieri may be a nice guy, but his defense is giving up a lot of points. Despite that, we keep seeing the same press coverage week after week. I’ve had enough. We need to make a change.
We’re bad at situational football. I won’t go into the poor use of timeouts and bad use of the Moore package all season, but I will say that the kicking teams yesterday was the worst I’ve seen them. If we brought Scott Boylan in to return kicks, why are we letting Stinson return kicks from the end zone to put us in worse field position? Why not take the touchback? And running backwards on a return (I can’t remember if Stinson did that or not, but it happened)? What in the world is going on? We supposedly have fast players, why not let them have a shot? No knock on Stinson, but there are types of law I don’t practice because those areas don’t mesh well with what I do on a day-to-day basis and because I don’t have enough experience in those areas to do them comfortably. Same here with Stinson – it just isn’t his thing. The staff has to do a better job of coaching players on when to return and has to put players in situations to make plays. I’m not seeing a lot of that from the kicking teams. And, again, it only took until the eighth game of the season for the staff to put someone else back there. You guys watch film all week and practice this stuff, but you’re just now figuring it out?
No energy. I have some comments here that could be deemed criticisms of the players. That isn’t the case – pay close attention and you’ll see that. Cut sure doesn’t seem to care on the sidelines. He looks disinterested and not into the game. The team seems to be taking a lead from that because they don’t look like they care on the sidelines, either. I think it’s pretty obvious that Cut has lost the team and the players are going through the motions as a result. But part of why I said that this team is one of the worst to watch is because of the apparent lack of leadership from the players. No one is acting like Koby Quansah, Carlos Wray or Max McCaffrey would when things got tough. As rough as some of those Goldsmith seasons were, the players would fight and compete. They just didn’t have the depth to get more wins. This team wasn’t going to be much better than 4-8, but when you have a chance to get to 5 wins early on, you have to dig deep and come out angry. You have to demand accountability from your teammates and lead by example. I haven’t seen that from the coach or the team this season. Now, I’m not pinning this on the players. This is a reflection of a poor culture that Cut has let take hold. He’s accountable for this. But I will say that the players have to start leading around Cut and take control of this. I don’t see these guys snapping a six game losing streak like we saw happen in 2017. This is a culture problem and it has to change.

There’s no way Ms. King can bring Cut back next season. Cut won’t do what it takes to fix the program. The trends show he isn’t capable of it. If it were up to me, I’d go ahead and cut the cord now and name Boyette or Frey interim coach. Boyette has had a lot of success with RBs over the years and Frey’s OL has been a bright spot in an otherwise disappointing season. It’s been time for a change for a good while now, and yesterday took away any reason to give Cut more time. Thanks for all you’ve done coach, but it’s time for someone else to lead the Blue Devils. I hope you enjoy retirement and come back to Durham often. I’ll remember the good years and won’t fixate on what happened at the end of your time as head coach. Again, I appreciate all you’ve done, but it’s time for a change.

Let me know what you think about what I think in the comments or on Twitter.

Go Duke!

2021 Game Previews – Duke versus Wake Forest

Remember when Duke used to beat Wake Forest? It started in 2012 when, after a decade or so of losing to Wake, the Blue Devils ripped off four straight and five out of six from 2012 to 2017. Well, times have changed. Dave Clawson has, like a lot of current ACC coaches, had David Cutcliffe’s number. 2018 saw Wake demolish Duke by 52 points. 2019 was much closer, but that score is misleading because the Blue Devils were helped by two touchdowns in the kicking game. Other than that, the boys from Durham didn’t do much. The only saving grace about 2020 was Duke didn’t lose to Wake – because the Blue Devils didn’t play Wake. It’s the little things in life, right?

Turning back to my habit of looking at trends when making game predictions, the trends say that Wake is a program on the rise. Clawson is currently two games over .500 at Wake and has taken this team to five straight bowl games. Wake comes in 7-0 and a perfect 4-0 in the ACC. While Clawson hasn’t been great in conference play, take out his first two seasons in which he went 2-14, and he’s just about even in the ACC. That’s pretty darned good.

Since Wake first cracked bowl eligibility under Clawson in 2016, Duke has gone off the rails. With just two winning seasons during that time, Cut has coached the Blue Devils to 29 wins and 39 losses. The conference record is an abysmal 11-34. That is just about awful no matter how you try to spin it.

Given how Duke has looked in two of its three conference losses this year, I don’t see the Blue Devils coming away with a win. This Wake Forest team has won about every way a team can win. They started by beating teams in a convincing fashion – look at the scores against Florida State and Virginia. They also put up SEVENTY against Army. And they pulled out two close wins against Louisville and Syracuse. Those are the kind of wins that good teams get. And, checks notes, Duke isn’t getting any of those wins in conference and hasn’t in what feels like forever.

So, what’s my prediction for Saturday? Well, Wake wins. No question about that. What’s the final score? Look, I don’t particularly like doing these because it isn’t easy to get them right consistently. But, since I know you guys like them, I’m taking Wake 42-13. Sorry, but I don’t see the Blue Devils doing much more so long as we don’t let our mobile quarterback run the ball to take pressure off of Mataeo. Maybe we need to think carefully about who calls the plays on offense? Maybe the head coach needs to stop promoting people because they have been there for a long time?

Let me know what you think in the comments or on Twitter.

Go Duke!

2021 State of the Program – Just Past Midseason Report

This has been a tale of many seasons for Duke. 2021 started poorly, very poorly, with a home loss to Charlotte. While many of us became concerned that loss would cost the Blue Devils bowl eligibility, a three game winning streak gave us hope that this team could squeak out a few wins here and there over the remaining eight and return to the postseason for the first time since 2018. But three straight conference losses have most of us thinking that a bowl just isn’t going to happen. When a team loses by more than 30 to its biggest rival and gets shut out, while giving up almost 50, to another division opponent, you don’t expect to go to a bowl. Add on another blown lead late against Georgia Tech, and there isn’t much reason for optimism.

So, what are we to make of team after seven games? Well, despite the 3-4 record, I’d argue that this team has a solid core. Let’s take a look at the offense first.

If I had to give out grades for each position, the running back gets an A+. The QB gets an A- (the low score is the result of the coaching staff using the QB poorly which I detail below). The offensive line gets a B+. Add in a decent receiving corps (we don’t have breakaway speed, hence the “decent” characterization), and any objective view of the offense has to be generally positive. I realize I didn’t give the receivers a grade. In lieu of letters, this unit gets a “P” for “Pass”. That isn’t a pun – I’m grading the receivers on a pass / no pass scale.

The defense, too, has improved during the season, particularly the defensive line. Despite a propensity to give up a lot of points (and there isn’t a way to sugarcoat that), this is an up-and-coming group that would accomplish more but for the fact that we remain in a 4-2-5 that everyone has figured out at this point. Could we try something different? Cutcliffe has been at the school for more than a decade, so why don’t we have more linebackers? How about we do something with three linemen and more safeties? Why not a 3-3-5? Anyway, I digress. Back to my point – I like a lot of the individual components on the defense, but this unit gives up way too many points. I don’t think it’s because the players are doing anything poorly, it’s just that the defense seems to be where the OL was last year – figuring itself out. We’re a developmental program. It happens.

As for the kicking teams, we have the best punter in the country. We have a good kicker, but Cut mismanaged the situation at UVA and cost us points. Seems like he probably lost the team with that. I don’t know for a fact that he lost the team, but they sure didn’t look the same after the missed field goal. Maybe I’m an idiot, but I can’t understand putting in a left-footed kicker to kick from the left hash. College football is all about emotion and momentum, and Cut flushed both down the toilet with that call.

If you take a look at the preceding paragraphs, you’re probably trying to comprehend how Duke managed to lose two close games to Charlotte and Georgia Tech and get blown out by UNC and UVA. Well, you’re not the only one. This isn’t like the Franks and Roof days where there was a lack of depth and talent. This team has enough talent that it should be able to be average enough to get six wins. So, why does this team look so bad? Why are we continuing to get blown out in conference game after conference game?

The only answer I have is coaching. This staff just isn’t getting much out of the players. I can’t say that the players aren’t trying to win every play or putting in the work because, unlike last year, it looks like they are doing everything they can to get a win each week (UVA game aside). Not counting my complaint about Cut benching Charlie Ham, here are Five Things that remain a problem for this team and have been since last season (if not longer):

Penalties. We get penalized way, way too much. My research has us at SEVEN penalties per game. That’s abysmal. And it screams a lack of discipline.
A mobile quarterback who isn’t running the ball. Why did we stop running Gunnar after the Kansas game? I get that you don’t want him to get hurt, but the yardage is there. Let Gunnar run the ball a few times. He looked real comfortable against Kansas, and while we can’t afford an injury, playing scared is playing to lose. And, checks notes, that’s sure what the Blue Devils are doing right now. Why is the offensive strategy built around fear? Well, let’s take a look at number three …
Not developing quarterback depth. What happened to the days of Renfree, Boone and Connette? Sirk goes down in 2016 and a future first round pick steps in. Since then? We’ve been afraid to run our quarterbacks because we don’t have depth at the position. I’m not sure why Luca Diamont isn’t playing, so I won’t comment on that, but I will say that the quarterback guru has hit a rough patch. For a guy who has produced so many NFL QBs to have so little depth at such a critical position is a damning statement about where the program is at year 14 of the Cutcliffe era.
The Blue Devils’ staff isn’t adapting. Twice this season Duke lost leads in the 4th quarter after retaking a lead. Why? Because the staff continues to employ the same defensive scheme that exposes our corners. Opposing teams figured it out and, just like not finding a way to cover the wheel route, our staff hasn’t. It’s the same with the offense. The predictability problems that started to seep in during the Daniel Jones era continue to haunt the program now. Cut has to go outside of his “people” and get someone with some fresh offensive ideas. Otherwise, we better get used to being at the bottom of the Coastal.
We have a retention issue. While watching some of the Clemson-Pitt game yesterday, I was surprised to learn that C. J. Spiller and Tajh Boyd are on the Clemson coaching staff. It surprised me because I didn’t know that players who were significant contributors could be a part of your team’s staff. Can someone explain to me why all of the players who played for Cutcliffe who now coach aren’t dressing up for the Blue Devils on Saturdays? Why don’t we have Anthony Boone, Takoby Cofield, Carlos Wray and Max McCaffrey on staff? You don’t think Braxton Deaver or David Reeves would come coach the tight ends? Those are guys who were key contributors and know what it takes to win in Durham. Are you telling me they wouldn’t help recruiting and player development?

To sum it up, I’m giving the team a C-. I expected struggles this season and didn’t expect more than 4 wins, so I won’t give them a D or an F. That’s just not fair because this was going to be a tough season. The conference schedule is brutal and we had to expect a down year.

That said, I didn’t expect the staff to find a way to give away two wins. I also thought that this group would play better against UNC and UVA. But those two games made one thing clear – the program is heading in the wrong direction. Duke isn’t suffering the kind of losses Virginia Tech has had this year – six points to West Virginia, three points to Notre Dame and five points to Syracuse. Those types of loses (which are what I expected from the Blue Devils) would tell me the team would learn from the close losses and start winning games next season. But we’re a long, long way from hope for the 2022 season. And it all goes back to coaching.

Let me know what you think in the comments or on Twitter.

Go Duke!

2021 Game Recap – Duke Loses (Yet Again)

I’ll be honest with you, I feel like this blog is turning into a form of therapy. I come here and vent my frustrations about a long-term relationship that is causing me a lot of pain, stress and worry. I’m not talking about my soon to be 18 year marriage, I’m talking about my relationship with Duke football. (The line about the marriage is a joke Been married for 18 years and we’re all good.) This loss may have been the worst since … Take your pick of one from last season. I don’t know how to begin to recap the fact that the Blue Devils put up a goose egg against UVA. But I’ll try.

Let’s get to Five Things.

Here are the Five Things I liked:

Um … Well … Let me just try and see if I can …
The game ended (h/t to Duke Rivals for that one).
The reasons not to make significant changes to the staff are all gone. I’ve been talking about trends a lot all season, and I’ll keep doing it, because the trends tell the story. And that story is that the rest of the ACC has moved in front of Duke. Since conference play started, the Blue Devils are 0-3 which continues a trend of mediocre conference play dating back to 2017 (I’ll give the 2016 team a pass because of all the injuries that season). If the administration cares about football, it can’t allow this to continue. Cutcliffe has shown that he can win in Durham, but his reluctance to make significant changes on the staff is holding the team back. The repeated losses, the margin of defeat and the ugly nature of a lot those losses means that Cut and his staff have allowed the program to crash and burn to the bottom of the Coastal. The staff isn’t capable of winning games. Changes have to be made.
The OL didn’t give up a sack until the second half (if memory serves).
That’s it — I’m all tapped out.

Here are the Five Things I Didn’t Like:

This game was so painful that I stopped watching at the end of the 3rd quarter which is something that I almost never do. I’ve been a loyal fan since I was a kid, but this was too much for me. The Blue Devils’ offense was so inept, the defense was completely unable to get a stop and the game was generally so painful that I couldn’t take it. I don’t how you come out and lay an egg like that after a close loss against Georgia Tech. My sense is that the staff lost control of the team. I’ll stand to be corrected on that, but the outcome speaks for itself. Pulling Charlie Ham will cause things like that to happen. Just saying …
Jeff Faris doesn’t understand situational football. I mean, what the heck were you doing? Duke is down 27-0 at the end of the first half (about two minutes to go) and has all of its timeouts. Gunnar throws underneath for 5 yards and a timeout is immediately called. Okay, but why? Why not just call a play and burn clock in the event that you aren’t able to get a first down? Then another 4 yard pass and it’s 3rd & 1 with 1:42 and you call … Another timeout? Are you trying to give UVA the ball with a lot of time to score? Well, if you were, great, because that’s what happened. And can we talk about the only good series you had in the 3rd quarter that you wasted by going huddle for a direct snap to Mataeo on 2nd down followed by a designed run on 3rd that everyone and their blind mother saw coming? Gunnar had been throwing great on that drive. How about keep calling Jontavis Robertson’s number?
Continued lack of discipline. Drops and penalties killed this team. Add in bad situational football and you end up getting a whooping. And that’s what that was. The Blue Devils got whooped and the sloppy play that has been a problem all season didn’t help.
The same old message. I’m sure Cut will take the blame for this and talk about how he needs to prepare the team better. He’ll say he knows what good football is. But is that message resulting in wins? Is it making the team better? Is anything changing? If we keep hearing the same thing week after week followed by the same result week after week, what reason do we have to believe that Cut is going to turn this around? Look, I love everything that Cut did for the program. I respect everything he did for the program. But we are knee-deep in Franks and Roof territory. Look at all the conference losses and the margin of defeat in those losses from the last conference game of 2018 to this season and you can see that we’re just as bad now as we were 20 years ago. I’d argue that the way Duke is losing now is worse than a lot of what we saw from Franks and Roof. And it isn’t acceptable if we care about football.
The Blue Devils are getting embarrassed. 38-7 against Carolina coming off of three straight wins. A tough loss to Georgia Tech followed up by a loss of almost 50. This is embarrassing. And it hurts.

Well, that’s it for a while because we have a bye next week.

Go Duke!

2021 Game Previews – Duke versus UVA

Duke sure started the season hot at 3-1, but that seems like a distant memory at this point. The Blue Devils are 3-3 after a blowout loss to UNC and another blown lead against Georgia Tech. Tailspin would be a generous way to describe the feeling most of us have at this point. Even the usually upbeat Section 17 crew was pretty pessimistic in its most recent podcast episode. But not me, I’m never one who comes off as a downer and assumes the worst will happen … Yeah, right. This is me we’re talking about.

For my preview this week, I’m going to turn to what I’ve been doing a lot of this season — trends. Since Bronco Mendenhall arrived at UVA in 2016, the Cavaliers have gone 34-34, made it to 3 bowl games and captured the Coastal in 2016. Even in UVA’s worst season under Mendenhall, a 2-10 campaign in 2016, the Cavs still managed to beat Duke. In fact, Mendenhall has never lost to the Blue Devils. Let that sink in for a minute – not even with Daniel Jones could Cutcliffe get a win against Mendenhall. While I like the players on this team a lot, the trends tell a story – Mendenhall is outcoaching Cutcliffe.

Can Duke win this game? Of course. The Blue Devils have a good offensive unit that can score points pretty consistently. A good QB, RB and WR corps (including recent usage of our TEs) can do a lot of damage. Duke’s defense is getting better each week which is another good sign. Factor in the improved OL and you have to think that our boys from Durham have a shot. After all, this UVA team has been pretty inconsistent all season. That said, the Cavs have a real good QB (again, so do the Blue Devils) and won two close games in two weeks. That’s important to keep in mind if this game ends up tight late. Good teams overcome. Bad teams find ways to lose (like repeatedly covering zero instead of conceding the FG to send the game to OT).

To cut to the chase, because I’m starting to feel like I say the same darned thing each week, I like Duke to hang in there, but for UVA to pull it out in the third or fourth. It will probably be like one of those games I grew up watching in the 90s. The Blue Devils would give me hope for a while, but then let the game slip away late. With that in mind, I’m taking UVA to win by a score of 38-27.

Go Duke!

2021 Game Recap – Duke Loses to Georgia Tech

My game recap is going to be a little abbreviated today because I missed a lot of this game thanks to a trip to VT to watch the Hokies play the Irish. Unfortunately for me, I caught the end of Duke blowing a fourth quarter lead to Georgia Tech to lose what should have been the Blue Devils’ first conference win of the season. I vented a lot of my frustration on Twitter after the game, so let’s go straight to Five Things.

Five Things I liked:

Despite going down 14-0 early in the game, Duke fought back and didn’t quit. The Blue Devils outscored Georgia Tech 27-17 after spotting the Yellow Jackets two scores. That tells me that this team doesn’t quit. And you need that during a season like this one.
Mataeo gonna Mataeo. 43 carries. 152 yards. 1 touchdown. 8 receiving yards. 2,000 plus total rushing yards in his career. Mataeo can ball.
The defense is getting better (wheel route notwithstanding). We got two picks. Despite a poor start to the season, the defense has shown an ability to make plays. (Capitalizing on them is another matter all together which we discuss below.)
I like being right. No, I’m not talking about predicting a loss. I’m talking about my early season prediction that the Blue Devils would lose a lot of close games but would show signs of life. That tells me while this season may be rough, things could well go differently for Duke next year. The real question is who will be around to lead the Blue Devils during what could be a season like 2012 was.
Our QB was 22/29 for 2 touchdowns. Sure, there was one pick at the end of the game, but that happens in those situations. With a guy who is that efficient under center, Duke should have a chance to steal a game or two during the second half of the season. But that probably won’t be enough to get us to a bowl which takes us to …

Five Things I Didn’t Like:

The Blue Devils gave up another 4th quarter lead. Just like with Charlotte, Duke had a chance to seal a win and, just like Charlotte, the defense didn’t hold. While some people who probably know a little more about football than I do have told me the defensive play call wasn’t a bad one, I’m not sure how, on third down, the DC leaves a corner in man coverage on a deep ball. Sure, a 36 yard toss for a TD isn’t easy, but college quarterbacks practice this. Plus, it seems like the Blue Devils always get beat in such situations, so why not drop 7 or 8 and be willing to give up the field goal to prevent the TD? Take it OT – the offense has played well. I don’t get it. I just don’t get it.
Rough day for a good kicker. I saw some players slip at times, so I’m going to chalk it up to just a bad day for Charlie Ham. Even Ross Martin missed some field goals now and then.
Why aren’t we giving Mataeo the ball on 4th and short? Looking at No. 2 of what I liked, he is pretty darned good and an effective player. Not letting Mataeo take the ball in those situations is really, really hard to comprehend. Play calling has been an issue all year and not letting your best back touch the ball in short yardage is a symptom of a larger disease. So, too, is not turning turnovers into points. And not giving your TE the ball enough. I could go on for a while, but I think you guys get the point. But speaking of Duke’s situational football woes …
This team could easily be 5-1, easily. Two blown leads in the 4th quarter has the Blue Devils trending downward and away from a bowl game. Better play calling has this team at 5-1. Losing close games the same way year after year indicates that coaches aren’t making adjustments, aren’t making changes and aren’t good at situational football. Good teams overcome, bad teams find ways to lose. The Duke coaching staff sure seems to be good at finding ways to lose. That might explain why less than 12,000 showed up to watch the Blue Devils lose.
Duke lost another conference game. The Blue Devils haven’t had a winning conference records since 2014 when Duke finished second in the Coastal with a 5-3 record. Let that sink in for a minute – 6 seasons with a losing conference record. That’s pretty bad no matter how you try and spin it. Last week I said look at trends and, when you do that, you see that the Blue Devils are not competitive in conference. To borrow an old phrase, you are what your record says you are and Duke’s conference record isn’t very good. How do you feel about your conference record, random fan?

Let’s hope the Blue Devils bounce back, because UVA won’t be easy.

Go Duke!